Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

I think the concept of good news figures in the UK is the symptom of collective brain washing. Even today, with a relaxation of most meaningful restrictions, there were more than 100 tragic coronavirus deaths and thousands of new infections. Admittedly NZ is the gold standard, but their entire death toll is 22. Their Health Minister resigned because 2 people from the UK were released from early quarantine with coronavirus. The father of our own PM broke lockdown restrictions in the UK and Greece and it is not worthy of comment by the PM at today's press meeting.
The highly controlled media will only tell you about countries that are handling it equally bad/worse (US, Brazil).

No we can see the figures, we have followed them and analysed them throughout. It is not about brainwashing, it is about calm assessment. The figures are heading in the right direction.

Really? I hate the current government but a fair bit of the media have spent quite a lot of time telling us how badly the government have done compared to everyone else!

Stanley Johnson might be a bit of a dick but he isn't actually in the government. I hold BJ responsible for many things but I'll concede that his dad is free to make his own choices and I'm not sure we can hold BJ responsible for them.

The highly controlled media will only tell you about countries that are handling it equally bad/worse (US, Brazil).

I disagree with this. We have heard a lot about NZ.

@conveniencestore

I think the concept of good news figures in the UK is the symptom of collective brain washing. Even today, with a relaxation of most meaningful restrictions, there were more than 100 tragic coronavirus deaths and thousands of new infections. Admittedly NZ is the gold standard, but their entire death toll is 22. Their Health Minister resigned because 2 people from the UK were released from early quarantine with coronavirus. The father of our own PM broke lockdown restrictions in the UK and Greece and it is not worthy of comment by the PM at today's press meeting. The highly controlled media will only tell you about countries that are handling it equally bad/worse (US, Brazil).

The death rate is now below average for the time of year though so those aren’t “extra” deaths. The same number or more would have died of another cause without Covid.

@MarshaBradyo

The highly controlled media will only tell you about countries that are handling it equally bad/worse (US, Brazil).

I disagree with this. We have heard a lot about NZ.

Also Germany and elsewhere in Europe.

NZ is the gold standard, but their entire death toll is 22.

Vietnam is the gold standard... A border with China, a population larger than the U.K., densely packed in certain cities, a developing economy, and yet zero Covid deaths - remarkable!

@conveniencestore

I think the concept of good news figures in the UK is the symptom of collective brain washing. Even today, with a relaxation of most meaningful restrictions, there were more than 100 tragic coronavirus deaths and thousands of new infections. Admittedly NZ is the gold standard, but their entire death toll is 22. Their Health Minister resigned because 2 people from the UK were released from early quarantine with coronavirus. The father of our own PM broke lockdown restrictions in the UK and Greece and it is not worthy of comment by the PM at today's press meeting. The highly controlled media will only tell you about countries that are handling it equally bad/worse (US, Brazil).

I think it's the exact opposite. The media here constantly tell us how terrible we are and how brilliant other countries are! We get this every single day. Our media never shine a spotlight on the good stuff. We are world leading at research and vaccines but it never gets a mention. Nz have done well at eliminating the virus but they are now stuck waiting for other countries ( maybe the uk) to save them with a vaccine. They can't make their own.

Hugely grateful to all posting such great analysis on these threads. Kept me sane, I have to say. As well as frustrated at the quality (or otherwise) of our journalism.

Astounded at the Pillar 2 test results not being widely available until recently. How on earth was postcode not a requisite in the contracts, regardless of how quickly the contracts were organised? It's embarrassing, actually.

I'd also like to know about how deaths are attributed to Covid. I have close knowledge of a 95 year old dementia sufferer whose death certificate had Covid as a mention on their death certificate (not primary cause). That's not why he was admitted to hospital; he went in from the care home to which he was admitted 6 months earlier and in which he was merely existed because, quite frankly, he was done with life. So whilst he contracted Covid either in the home or in the hospital in late April, that wasnt what he died from - his body was generally failing on him. But was his death in the figures? I guess we'll never know.

I have close knowledge of a 95 year old dementia sufferer whose death certificate had Covid as a mention on their death certificate (not primary cause

Then the ONS will count it in their figures - "The ONS weekly deaths figures include all deaths where the registration mentions COVID-19, including those occurring outside of hospitals (for example, in care homes)"

However, to count in the daily announced totals, it would require a positive test to have been carried out.

Getting back to statistics there's some interesting stuff here, especially local infection rates per 100,000 in each local authority area over the last 7 days. There are quite dramatic differences between areas, eg Oldham has 10x the rate of Reading.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Sorry, my 'getting back to statistics' was aimed at the discussion of the media above, not about your 95-yr-old relative. I think it's important to remember that many deaths are 'with' covid-19 not 'from' it.

[quote fadingfast]@NewAccountForCorona you must be incredibly proud of your daughter and I hope that she can enjoy a (very) well earned break.

I recently saw someone (I think on Twitter) highlighting a new campaign for targeted mental health support for medical professionals, and I really hope that's something that is introduced. Otherwise we'll have a whole generation of medical staff who face long lasting consequences of this pandemic, and likely lose many who decide to leave after all the pressure they have been under.[/quote]
I would hope some of the millions raised for the NHS charities goes towards mental health support

I have to add my thanks to those wise ones here who not only have the ability to extract the data but have taken the time to present it to us in a meaningful way and without bias.

My comment was in response to "Recent figures are also good news for hopeful UK holidaymakers: The EU agreed to let in tourists from countries with < 16 / 100,000 cases in 7 days" - this is the post that actually started the break with impartiality. Is it really good news for all or just for some people? Is the death/infection rate really good relative to other countries? And also on a sole regrettably partial note, the reference to the 'EU' as a third party that we are not part of was a little triggering, but that's just me...

I think the fact that our rate of cases is now below what the EU class as low enough risk to let people in is definitely good news @convenience. Only a few weeks ago it was above that rate and it's clearly cone down. Whether or not you want to travel this summer is an individual decision.

Facts are impartial

The UK is no longer part of the EU = fact (I live in Germany, so I ignore that fact at my peril)

and I calculated that the UK's infection rate is now sufficiently low for UK tourists to be allowed into the EU = fact
(and most would regard it as good news)

"The ONS weekly deaths figures include all deaths where the registration mentions COVID-19, including those occurring outside of hospitals (for example, in care homes)"
However, to count in the daily announced totals, it would require a positive test to have been carried out

On that second sentence, do you happen to know if this has always been the case, or has it changed as time's gone on?
Only I'm thinking of all those where a Covid box has been ticked on the basis of a phone call, with no examination or test of any kind

Puzzled The daily totals have always included only those deaths with a positive COVID test

That is the same requirement for all countries except Belgium,
which counts any death where the doctor thinks there is a sniff of COVID,
without test confirmation

There seems some myth circulating that the UK figures are only bad because of including more cases than other countries
However, the UK is just sticking to the WHO standards for CoD, as do at least other developed countries

e.g. as I mentioned before, Germany counts as COVID even victims of murder, accident, suicide it they have a positive test

Unlike the daily death stats, the ONS analyses not just the official cause of death, but also where COVID is listed as a contributory factor - which may not need a test

However, look at the total death graphs:

Once the COVID deaths dropped right down, so did total deaths and they are now almost normal for this time of year.

If there was some other mysterious cause of some of the 67,000 excess deaths, then it disappeared as COVID fell off.

The ONS analysis was that the official figures miss deaths where COVID was at least a significant contributory factor.

"I'm thinking of all those where a Covid box has been ticked on the basis of a phone call, with no examination or test of any kind"

?
May have happened on social media, but it didn't go into the daily death figures

@Puzzledandpissedoff

"The ONS weekly deaths figures include all deaths where the registration mentions COVID-19, including those occurring outside of hospitals (for example, in care homes)" However, to count in the daily announced totals, it would require a positive test to have been carried out

On that second sentence, do you happen to know if this has always been the case, or has it changed as time's gone on?
Only I'm thinking of all those where a Covid box has been ticked on the basis of a phone call, with no examination or test of any kind

Previous to April 29, death counts only included those who died with a positive test in NHS settings, so not care homes.

So a positive test has always, I think, been needed for the official daily stats, but not the ONS stats.

Since 29 April, death in care homes are included, but again only after a positive test

btw, I've just read complete bollocks on another thread about a "Germanic immunity gene" 🤦🏻‍♀️

That's woo territory,
leaped on by those desperate to explain away the high UK death toll

The UK is NOT at some genetic disadvantage compared to Germany

The UK would have had similarly low figures if it:

had locked down 7-10 days earlier,
had systems for mass testing, track & trace from the start
had home visits and early hospital treatment for the sick without any rationing
had not discharged thousands of infected elderly people into care homes.

@BigChocFrenzy
Did they create a whole mystic tale out of that dark matter stuff I'm supposed to have? Believing that is more comfortable than thinking the NHS needs to be better funded with less admin, I suppose, and absolves them from doing sth about it.

DB (working in care) usually says: "Herr, schmeiß Hirn vom Himmel, ... oder Steine, was besser trifft."