Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

Thanks PatriciaHolm, I appreciate that the other deaths are care homes, own homes etc, but the ONS weekly death reports (which cover all deaths in all settings and include analysis by setting) imply that hospitals consistently account for over 60% of the total Covid deaths. Extrapolating from the hospital data therefore implies deaths at less than 100 a day now, but reported deaths over the last week still averaged just under 120, so some 20% higher than this. It does suggest to me there may be a significant time lag in some reporting (not just the weekend blips) which means the stats may overstate the daily reality.

Inmysparetime number of people tested is reported for Pillar 1, so makes meaningful analysis of that Pillar possible.

@patriciaholm where are you finding the NHS triage data? I saw some in the ONS infection survey a few weeks ago, but not seen it anywhere since. I would love to have a look at the recent figures.

Zoe app now shows 1445 daily cases, pleasantly surprised it’s coming down.

I am always a little suspicious when people post vast reading lists that appear to have come from one place. Here are some quotes from one of the papers you listed.

An outbreak around a French school was reported, where they found that 40% of pupils and staff became infected with no difference
between the two groups [KR8]. Almost all the students in the study were aged 15-17 years of age, who appear to have similar disease characteristics to adults

At least 3 studies have shown that children show a longer faecal shedding time (and in some studies longer than adults (and in some cases that was longer than 4 weeks) [KR4-6]. A study of 3,712 COVID-19 patients analysed the variance of viral loads in patients of
different age categories and found no significant difference between age categories and concluded that children may be as infectious as adults [KR7]

Something I have noticed is that even the BBC page doesn't seem to be reporting anything positive (or much of anything these days). For instance, 8 out of the last 10 days, cases have been below 1000, yet it's never mentioned in the news

Also this one, from the same list, suggests that children were the index case for 9.7% of all family clusters. So even some of the papers arguing the case for low infectivity are not suggesting no infectivity. Bear in mind, this was a small sample and there are many other reasons, besides a lack of infectivity, why children may be less likely to be the initial case in the early stages of an epidemic, when schools were already off for a holiday...

If you provide a huge reading list and tell people to educate themselves on the topic, I think you should have at least read the whole list yourself, to be honest.

Findings: Drawing on studies from China, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Iran a broad range of clinical symptoms were observed in children. These ranged from asymptomatic to severe disease. Of the 31 household transmission clusters that were identified, 9.7% (3/31) were identified as having a paediatric index case. This is in contrast other zoonotic infections (namely H5N1 influenza virus) where 54% (30/56) of transmission clusters identified children as the index case.

Oops, I've just posted to the wrong thread! Very sorry.

[quote clarexbp]@patriciaholm where are you finding the NHS triage data? I saw some in the ONS infection survey a few weeks ago, but not seen it anywhere since. I would love to have a look at the recent figures.[/quote]
Here - digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/nhs-pathways

NHS Leicester City the highest, unsurprisingly.

"20,000/9/30 = 75 deaths a day, They aren't that bonkers ;-)"

That's why I said imo 20k total over 9 months would be a very reasonable, manageable result,
if it's while most of the economy and schools continue to run

It would include lower deaths over summer, then rising over winter, but not to the level of a "2nd wave"

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-exceedances-in-leicester

PHE have just now published a report into the Leicester outbreak. More up to date data on 7 day infection rate (see attached) shows a decline in 8/10 of the top areas, though only slightly in Leicester. Increases in Doncaster and Bolton but from a much lower start.
Mean age of cases is 40, split 49% male. Ethnicity "likely reflects the local population" (there is a graph)

Locations appear to be around a couple of workplaces, a couple of carehomes, a household , a hospital and a school. With 4 nurseries and a school marked as "exposure/issue/threat".

North Evington ward most significantly impacted.

And this would be why Hancock commented about children -
"The proportion of positive PCR tests (as a proportion of all test) is rising. This is suggestive of a genuine increase in numbers of new infections, not simply an artefact of increasing test rates.

This effect is most marked in the under 19-year-old group where the proportion of test positive cases fell to ≈5% (across all age groups) after the end of the initial epidemic peak, and has climbed back from mid-May to a current value of ≈15%."

Although they note that this pattern is not replicated across the country.

AND they note there has been no increase in hospital admissions, which have been steady at between 6-10 a day for four weeks. So the increase in positive tests is not , at present, leading to more hospital cases.

Conclusions - "Conclusions

1. The strongest evidence of an outbreak is given by the numbers of new infections identified in children and working age people, and rising proportion of positive tests also seen in these age groups, from late May onwards. These are trends not observed in other parts of the Midlands, or related travel areas.
2. Evidence for the scale of the outbreak is limited and may, in part, be artefactually related to growth in availability of testing.

3. If an outbreak is occurring, then care should be taken to ensure that the artificial geographical reporting boundaries do not obscure a problem that may cross the East Midlands and East of England border"

attachment!

Pumpkin pie

Why would they when they can bash the govt over the economy

Tbf they have given the situation in HK a lot of cover today.

I found out today a colleagues nan dies of pneumonia recently.
She had 3 Covid tests and all negative.
Death certificate says pneumonia and then mentions Covid.

Wonder how many other "deaths with Covid mentioned on certificate" are the same situation.

Also interesting in that assets document linked above it shows week 12 (when we went into lockdown was peak of school infections/outbreaks) then there is a complete low level (1-3) each week until week 21. It was week 20 that wider reopening happened and they have increased week on week. 8 times as many outbreaks in week 24 compared to week 21.

England: Highest areas of infections in Yorkshire, North England & Midlands

Wales: 3 meat plant outbreaks

NI & Scotland: v low infections

FT: Leicester and Merthyr Tydfil top table for UK-wide Covid infections

Using PHE data release for cases-per-100,000 people during the week ending 21 June

‪https://ft.com/content/4a9fcb75-0abf-43b7-a1b9-09d2c9452204…‬

This has just been published by PHE in the Leicester report, which updates that graph - a decline in 8 out of the top 10, with 2 increases but from a much smaller base.

...and also encouragingly, the England-wide prevalence down from 10.7 to 6.7.

Granular data:

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch (FT)

One day after we highlighted missing pillar 2 cases, PHE has published full data (both pillars) on new cases in English local areas (as of 10 days ago)
........
Here’s the full dataset for all UK local areas:
https://t.co/qHbfJfnWUC?amp=1

I collated from the different countries.

• England: third link down here ‪https://gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports…‬

• Wales: link in bottom left here ‪https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary…‬

• Scotland: second file here ‪https://gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-trends-in-daily-data/…‬

• Northern Ireland: page 4 here ‪https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9‬

National COVID-19 surveillance reports

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Can anyone shed any light on the situation in France? Cases seem to be increasing again. Is there any area specific data to be found? Thank you. Does Mistigrl post here?

Apparently "In a statement, they said "a catch-up of missing data" had contributed to the sharper increase."

TBH that looks much more likely than anything else, given it's two very anomalous spikes (1,588 and 918 against a rolling average of 498). Especially as numbers seem to have been in the 100s on 22nd and 23rd and zero on 25th as far as I can see from Worldometer.

sorry that's for @HoldingTight ref France!

great set of links big choc, worth highlighting that the English data is at the moment upper tier local authorities only, nothing yet for the 188 district councils sat within the various counties. Hopefully that will follow - if PHE can provide a figure for Rutland (pop less than 40,000) it should be able to do it for district council areas. In theory at least! :)

I noticed that they were quite high today, France's figures have always been quite variable though which makes me think maybe a reporting issue. Just looked at their graphs and their cases seem to be at a plateau of around 500 7 day average. Their deaths have averaged

Thank you PatriciaHolm

It's hard to know anything much. The government have changed the way data is presented pretty frequently, I suspect for political reasons, and are not at all interested in genuine transparency. We don't have the pillar 2 cases. God knows why, although no doubt some new "plausible " reason will be proffered. It's getting pretty tedious.