Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

I am amazed that anyone is able to follow the data that comes from PHE or NHSE. They are notorious for inaccurate, substandard data. Why is it only now that they are reporting In the news that they can report tests by postcode? It's not difficult to ask this question at the time of testing.

@alreadytaken the new site has cases up to date but not admissions (if you click on ‘data’ it shows N/A all the way back to 16 June

Courtesy of the excellent @rp131 on twitter, the day from that earlier map. Showing clearly the issue with Leicester....

@PatriciaHolm

Thanks. Here’s the bottom 75. Apparently there’s an xls with the underlying data but can’t find it.

If you want a better look, go to @rp131 on Twitter.

Found it:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/896777/Weekly_COVID19_report_data_current.xlsx

Anyone find hosptial admissions? Last date I have figures for is the 23rd of june. I can see the new data ( thanks for link) and lastest figures on that is the 16th as someone upthread said.
France now giving data ( on the site i use ) during the week only and care home figures once a week. One or two new clusters each day.

If you look at this map and click on the bars it gives hospital admissions for that day, the latest are June 28th and only cover England and Wales. Maybe there's a lag getting figures from other nations, the last date with NI and Scotland is the 16th. I've attached the screenshot, but click on this to see the details.

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/healthcare

It says that:

28th June: Wales 49. England 73 ( surprisingly low, but a Sunday)
27th June: Wales 50. England 155
26th June: Wales 81. England 209

The figures have always been a bit up and down for admissions.

With the difference in populations, it shows that admissions are proportionately much higher in Wales- but they have had those two clusters on Anglesea and Wrexham.

I think early on in the pandemic they didn't want to release post code data in case people were identified and marked by locals like lepers! I remember loads of gossip around my parents' area about a man who had tested positive after skiing.

Ah thanks @ cathy. Could not find that.

England and Wales report hospital admissions differently. England reports confirmed COVID cases (including transmissions within hospitals) while Wales includes suspected cases. As a result, Wales numbers have always looked artificially high.

Here are the exact definitions (from the fine print in government briefing slides):

England data captures people admitted to hospital who already had a confirmed COVID-19 status at point of admission, and adds those who tested positive in the previous 24 hours whilst in hospital. Inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 after admission are assumed to have been admitted on the day prior to their diagnosis.

Wales data includes confirmed and suspected cases, and is the number of admissions to the hospital in the previous 24 hour period up to 9am. The status of COVID/non-COVID is as at the time of reporting not at time of admission.

I really struggled too Humph- which made me suspicious that they were hiding bad news. Doesn't look like it though!

Thanks Winter that's interesting about Wales.

However, the area data for local authorities is not a concern for identifying people-it's too large an area. And it doesn't include community results, which are the majority now.

Ah great to see the hospital admissions. The new portal is too complicated for my liking- I just want to see the figures that we were getting on the daily briefing slides (and see them going down!)
But the graph you found does that job so that’s good.

I was expecting the figures to plateau this week, after zoe and ons last week said the decline was slowing down. So pleasant surprise that hospital admissions are definitely still decreasing.

Please can you remind me what Pillar One and Pillar Two are? I was quite shocked to see that graph of Leicester data posted above with the increase being Pillar Two which the government don't publish? Is it ever shared?

Shocking isn’t it. Very broadly pillar 1 is people tested in hospitals. Pillar 2 is testing via drive in centres and posted kits. Which in most cases will be a far higher number I would have thought.

@MaggieFS

As of very recently the Government seem to be providing this in the weekly surveillance reports. I attached a spreadsheet earlier today with details at upper local authority level.

Details for the past week are on the figure 9 tab.

It’s useful in that it provides data per 100,000 of population. That helps avoid misinterpretation of the data from places like Birmingham and Rutland (the former having a population over 20 times the size).

Bradford and London boroughs among 36 'at-risk' areas that could be 'just days away' from local lockdowns

Hopefully most / all of these lockdowns can be avoided now the at risk areas have been identified for work

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-bradford-and-london-boroughs-among-36-at-risk-areas-that-could-be-just-days-away-from-local-lockdowns-12018594

Further local lockdowns are "just days away" following the drawing up of a list of 36 "at-risk" areas,
Sky News understands.

Sources in Public Health England and the Department for Health told Sky News they are "working collaboratively",
focusing on the 36 areas in England where coronavirus cases are rising

As a result, local lockdowns like the one in Leicester could be implemented in "just days".

Thanks! Yes, I'd also expect that number to be higher. Sorry I missed the link earlier, I thought the data had been shared but then saw comments that it hadn't.

@BigChocFrenzy

Bradford and London boroughs among 36 'at-risk' areas that could be 'just days away' from local lockdowns

Hopefully most / all of these lockdowns can be avoided now the at risk areas have been identified for work

[[https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-bradford-and-london-boroughs-among-36-at-risk-areas-that-could-be-just-days-away-from-local-lockdowns-12018594]]

Further local lockdowns are "just days away" following the drawing up of a list of 36 "at-risk" areas,
Sky News understands.

Sources in Public Health England and the Department for Health told Sky News they are "working collaboratively",
focusing on the 36 areas in England where coronavirus cases are rising

As a result, local lockdowns like the one in Leicester could be implemented in "just days".

My town is on that list and it is utter bullshit, they looked at the pillar one figures for two consecutive lists and listed the ones that had gone up by 100's of %, from 1-4 for example. Of course we need to be aware of issues but when dealing with tiny numbers R is rubbish and this list is just utter shit for the most part.

I do think there may be 1 or 2 other towns with issues, the failure to release pillar 2 data is really scandalous.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/30/around-third-no-coronavirus-symptoms-may-have-developed-immunity/amp/

Can anyone help me understand this? Too tired to get my head around it. Does it mean 30% are naturally immune and will never get it? Or an extra 30% of people may have had it but used t cells?