Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 11

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 11 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Slides & data UK govt pressers
NHS England stats including breakdown by Hospital Trust
ONS UK statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Worldometer UK page
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

Ideally the data would be fully audited and finalised before we see it but the demands of the situation would make this difficult.

Indeed. I despair, sometimes, that we've got ourselves into a situation where the stats are pushed out every day and there is so much focus on them, because in reality none of it is what people think it is. The deaths didn't happen yesterday, nor did the tests, and the pressure to get The Numbers everyday means they simply aren't complete, and won't be for weeks. We are trying to get a reporting system to do something it cannot do. Taken on a day by day basis the numbers are useless.

And this cause worry and concern when things fluctuate, which they will do, in some cars wildly.

@PatriciaHolm

Ideally the data would be fully audited and finalised before we see it but the demands of the situation would make this difficult.

Indeed. I despair, sometimes, that we've got ourselves into a situation where the stats are pushed out every day and there is so much focus on them, because in reality none of it is what people think it is. The deaths didn't happen yesterday, nor did the tests, and the pressure to get The Numbers everyday means they simply aren't complete, and won't be for weeks. We are trying to get a reporting system to do something it cannot do. Taken on a day by day basis the numbers are useless.

And this cause worry and concern when things fluctuate, which they will do, in some cars wildly.

Scientific research has suffered from the same issue. Pre prints of papers have been leaped on and blown out of proportion and MSM haven't helped. People desperately trying to draw conclusions before the data allows.

Thanks for that link to the data @Derbygerbil

Can anyone answer a question on this? I downloaded it and had a play around with the data. Overall it is very encouraging but I noticed the figures for my county are less than the totals for the district council areas within that area. Is this because the higher level county numbers are just labelled as a different entry for some reason? I only looked at the last 7 days. But there were 88 cases across the district areas, but only 8 for the county. I hope I’ve explained that clearly!

Link above shows my county has had 1 case in a week.
My town and neighbouring town hasn't had cases for weeks.

However we were some of the first to have it here (Hampshire) and my town was reporting cases beginning of March.

apple.news/AYxjTSAh_ShOAEsEfL1ghAQ

This is interesting.

Cases in France have been below 500 for weeks but have had a spike. (Not the interesting bit)

Daily deaths have been on average below 20.

But what I noted was their numbers in hospital and ventilated compared to ours considering their much lower case and death rate.

Approx 9000 in hospital (slightly higher than ours) and approx 650 ventilated compared to C330 in U.K.

What I find interesting is the difference in ventilated patients and mortality rates. I'm wondering why the hide difference?

My oh commented on the hospitalization/intensive care rates in France itsgettingweird. It is curious and also interested to see if anyone knows why it might be.

I know you said the cases spike wasn't the interesting bit but the french cases data in general seems quite spiky, presumably to do with how data us collated,

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/

Deaths up by 100 today, seems very high for a weekend

@gingganggooleywotsit No. it's the lowest Saturday in 14 weeks.

The very low weekend numbers are Sunday and Monday.

Last Saturday it was 128

This is the latest ONS occupational covid-19 death risk

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19relateddeathsbyoccupationenglandandwales/deathsregisteredbetween9marchand25may2020

Excel:

www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpeoplepopulationandcommunity%2fhealthandsocialcare%2fcausesofdeath%2fdatasets%2fcoronaviruscovid19relateddeathsbyoccupationenglandandwales%2fcurrent/coronavirusdeathsbyoccupationinenglandandwalesfinal2.xlsx

Average age-adjusted covid-19 mortality was 19.1+- 0.7 per 100k for men , and 9.7 +-0.5 for women. Raised for women:

national government administrative 23+-9
nursing 15+-4
nursing assistant 14+-4 (not statisticially significant difference?)
care workers: 26+-5
hairdressers: 31+16
retail assistants 16+-4

for men:
security guard: 74+-14
kitchen assistants: 37+-15
cleaners: 38+-12
postal workers, sorters, couriers: 34+-10
construction: 42+-13
taxi driver: 65+-11
bus/coach driver: 44+-12
metal machine operative: 51+-20
food/drink/tobacco processing: 64+-21
sales/retail: 34+10
care workers: 71+-15
ambulance staff (not paramedics): 82+-54
nursing assistants: 59+-20
chefs: 57+-17
bakers: 461+-250 (! - only 11 deaths)
vehicle mechanics: 44+14
local government admin: 50+-23
national government admin: 40+-17
police officers: 134+-80 (15 deaths)
nurses: 50+-17

The specific high risk to men was identified in routine jobs was in factory workers and security guards, both around 70 per 100k.

The study further notes that male retail workers in London had high risk of death, but those outside London did not, while taxi drivers everywhere were at risk, but those in London very much higher.

It also finds that of the 17 occupations for men identified as having higher death risk, 11 had outsized rates of ethnic minority workers.

In particular, 33% of male taxi drivers are Bangladeshi/Pakistani, compared to 3% of the population. Presumably in London even higher still. While 8% were black vs 3% of the population.

Male security guards were 27% black/Pakistani/Bangladeshi, vs. 6% of the population. And 16% of male care workers were black.

While 37.8% of male shop proprietors were Indian/Bangladeshi/Pakistani/other, vs. 10% of the population.

This is interesting because of course if there is an excess risk from these jobs, it would feed into the excess risk of deaths for people from these ethnicities.

@shoots I'd imagine the difference between London and elsewhere for taxi drivers and retail is that in London most people caught it early, before lockdown when these things were still happening. These are not keyworker jobs - just ones that bring you into contact with a lot of people Outside London cases have rumbled on during lockdown mainly amongst people still working outside the home. So not retail in particular, as they've mostly been Furloughed.

Yes they'd need to break it out by month perhaps.

Trouble is the actual number of deaths of working age people is low, there are hundreds of occupational categories, and then you split it out by month and location and you can't really prove anything....

SHoots Is there a simple summary table anywhere for total UK deaths from COVID by age
e.g. like this for Germany

UK data all seems split up into Eng+Wales, Scot, NI and even then one has to dig into the totals column of an xls
Not convenient for quick reference

I track the French cases ( am in france) cases have been fairly consistent for sometime and quite low ( below 500). Was a big spike yesterday but nothing in papers about it, and i can see worldometers says it is a reporting issue ( they have a new system post lockdown). No data so far tonight so dont know if it was a one off.

There has always been many more in hosptial compared to what i can see from the uk no.s and many more in intensive care up to now. I am not sure if all those are ventilated and i presume not. We have had from the start admissions no.s and that was a good indicator of the situation. They are not on the main dashboard now but i can see no.s in hospital still. I am tracking clusters now. I have a spreadsheet - sad!

Highest hospital nos. In France - 14th april 32,292 -
Intensive care - 7148 - 8th april
Daily admissions - 3277 on 7th april

Not sure exactly how that compares but always seemed much higher.

Germany currently has 347 in ICU - I don't have the hospital non-ICU figures atm.
At the peak in April, it was about 10 x that, well over 3,000

About 14,500 have left ICU, 25% of them dead

Although over 1,500 employees tested positive at the meat processing plant in Guetersloh, they are all age 20-65, mostly well below 65.
So I don't expect many extra hospitalisations over the next couple of weeks and few if any deaths from that outbreak - so far hasn't spread.

Deaths by age - I've calculated this, but it's just England+Wales, March-May. I've taken it from ONS so its 43,763 deaths, as they include all deaths with COVID on the death certificate whether tested or not (by contrast the total announced figure from the Govt today is 43,514).

No graph?

and now twice. Sorry.

Thanks, patricia
The UK needs a nice simple table so we don't have to hunt through and sum 3 different xls

I'm surprised the age table isn't published daily, as here

imo, there would be far less worry among the under 50s if they had easy access to see the low number of deaths for their age group

• fewer MN threads from young mothers terrified they are going to die and leave their DC alone, just because of a bit of asthma or chub.

[quote PatriciaHolm]@PumpkinPie2016 Yes, exactly.

Case data is all over the place, as more than 2/3rds comes from pillar 2 - commercial partners testing in the community. So sometimes a backlog of data appears for old dates, which makes no sense to lump into today's numbers (which are themselves not great, as they are not relating to the last 24 hours anyway, they are just "cases we received results of yesterday")[/quote]
@PatriciaHolm sorry I'm getting muddled again with data sources - where do you get the "2/3rds case numbers from pillar 2" figure?

@Quarantino if you look here you can see around 2/3 positives come from pillar 2. It's fairly consistent day on day

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

Thank you! I probably even had that tab open among all the others...

At least now (was different earlier on when more were pillar 1 but we weren't doing much pillar 2 testing if at all)

Thanks so much for the continued graphs and calm analysis!

I keep seeing doom laden predictions about lockdown being lifted here too soon. I have concerns about our track and trace ‘system’ but what keeps getting quotes is the fact that we currently have as many deaths as the rest of Europe put together. My question is where other countries (other than Germany) were with numbers of daily cases /deaths when they started to come out of lockdown - I know many also didn’t have their track and trace sorted either. Is there a source that shows this for different countries with subsequent stats?