Uk hospital now saying covid patients don’t seem as sick as they did at beginning of epidemic

[Blueberryham]

Just saw on yahoo news

@WinningEveryDay i agree! My 82 year old nanna with advanced kidney failure has had to attend her dialysis every other day throughout this, and many times there has been covid positive patients on the unit. Alot of shielding people still need to access medical services.

So in most cases Covid has very mild symptoms or asymptotic, does anyone know the %?

@Alex50

So in most cases Covid has very mild symptoms or asymptotic, does anyone know the %?

Most predictions I’ve seen (and it will always be a prediction because for obvious reasons asymptomatic or very mild symptoms are harder to identify and antibodies aren’t even present in a significant number of people who’ve had laboratory confirmed covid) hover around 40%.

From what I can gather asymptomatic cases are mostly identified in households or crowded places (cruise ships, work places) where there has been a number of symptomatic cases so asymptomatic people have been tested.

arxiv.org/abs/2006.0847

In this study in Lombardy they followed people who had been contacted through contact tracing and tested positive... 70% of under 60s remained asymptomatic

Woops wrong link sorry

arxiv.org/abs/2006.08471

@Derbygerbil Sat 20-Jun-20 15:38:47

There will be a lot of susceptible people out there - antibody levels suggest we are a long way from herd immunity, but they are generally shielding or taking particular care so far less likely to be infected. Back in March they were just carrying on like everyone else, got infected, and were more severely effected. That seems to be the most likely conclusion. I’ve not seen anything that suggests that the virus has changed biologically.
Several points: herd immunity refers to vaccination science, and has been en masse incorrectly applied to virus spread. We have no idea how long immunity lasts, nor what percentage of the population need to have contracted the disease for said 'herd immunity' to kick in. Typically, we talk about 95% vaccine uptake to protect the vulnerable who cannot/have not been vaccinated. Second point: if a percentage of people are simply not susceptible it is very possible that after exposure they don't have specific antibodies to covid, or their immunity has fended off the disease with killer T cells (they don't leave an antibody trace). Third: we simply do not know the susceptibility rate. Forth: there is good evidence about mutability of viruses, but who knows for this one. If it does mutate it is highly likely to evolve to be less harmful to the host. Fifth: shielding has likely been effective in reducing death rates. It does not exclude other factors at play.

viruses mutate and get usually less deadly over time. Have read that a few scientists believe that the fact that Covid is less deadly/severe now has probably also to do with the viral DNA changing.

Why would Covid became milder if, as chicken pox, is highly infectious even before symptoms appear?

Nobody talks about chicken pox becoming milder even when it has been around for a very long time.

@bolderbaking which scientists are these? Virus that can infect people before they start showing symptoms have no urgent selective pressure put upon them to become milder, there is no shortage of people after all.

porc, I cannot find the link now. will post later if can dig it out.

Although infection CAN happen before symptoms, it is not common, even for covid. Most infections occur when the patient is sneezing and coughing everywhere. Selection pressures do not need to be 'urgent' to have an effect on a population. In fact, where the pool of infections is very large, then even very slight selection pressures will be felt.

This doesn't surprise me. All respiratory viruses lose their virulence in summer months. No one has proved why that is, but the phenomenon is clear to see. This is a very interesting and well evidenced theory:

Don't get lulled into a false sense of security over summer.

Usually virus do become milder because the ones that kill their host quickly dont have time to spread,so that strain is more likely to die out with its host.
Those that cause minimal or mild symptoms wont incapacitate the host, who can then go about freely spreading the virus. This version then becomes the more commont strain.
Chickenpox is unchanged because its a very successful virus. Spreads easily but very very rarely kills its host.

@reesewithoutaspoon

Usually virus do become milder because the ones that kill their host quickly dont have time to spread,so that strain is more likely to die out with its host. Those that cause minimal or mild symptoms wont incapacitate the host, who can then go about freely spreading the virus. This version then becomes the more commont strain. Chickenpox is unchanged because its a very successful virus. Spreads easily but very very rarely kills its host.

It’s true they usually become milder but it’s more complex than that and takes a long time. HIV for example is only now starting to be considered to be milder (it’s just the drugs we have that have made us think of it as milder for a long time).

A virus that spreads asymptomatically does not have any evolutionary need to attenuate.

Do not mistake normal seasonality with mutation. All respiratory viruses kill fewer people in summer. Doesn’t mean they’ve mutated towards less virulence. It just means it’s summer. They all come back in winter. I suspect Covid-19 will do the same.

It doesn't spread asymptomatically. Most cases of spreading involve a symptomatic ill person as the source. As for the certainty about dip in summer virulence, what happened in Iran, what about India and other hot countries?

It still rains in India and other countries. It may be that drives people indoors where coronavirus transmits best, or it may be that the virus lives longer / infects better in humidity as well as in cold. Probably the former.

The reason for this is that the most vulnerable, who are likely to become the sickest, have been protecting themselves.

Once they start being out and about the second wave will start and we will see very sick people again.

I do not think the virus has become milder.

Yes ive seen and read that too, newspaper this morning I think. It seems virus is weakening across the world. The terminology I read was "its no longer a tiger."
I had it at the beginning of the epidemic, im never usually ill not over 60 pretty fit and healthy. No idea where I caught it, no one else I know or their surrounding circle have had it. Always been a bit of a hand washing maniac, It was horrendous! I REALLY hope there is some form of immunity I dont want it again.

It doesnt spread asymptomatically

On the contrary, it spreads perfectly well from a person who is currently asymptomatic but who will go on to develop symptoms. That's why they say people are at their most infectious from a day or two just before symptoms appear to 5 days after.

Even the plague died out without a vaccine or any of today's hygiene, running water antibacterials, face masks etc.

1 - Those most at risk are shielding
2 - At the beginning we were stupidly telling people to stay at home, not tell the NHS they had it and only go in at the point they couldn’t talk/needed a ventilator, when everything was showing other countries treating people early with oxygen from the start stopped them getting as bad.

Even the plague died out without a vaccine or any of today's hygiene, running water antibacterials, face masks etc

Plague died out because the Brown rat took over from the smaller much less aggressive Black rat, which lived around humans.
Humans avoided the brown rat (& vice versa) and hence its fleas that carried bubonic plague.

How many people did it kill before it died out@Choccylips?

If it helps the NHS Trust I work for (NHS Tayside ) only had 2 covid+ in hospital with 0 in ICU and 0 in HDU. That was of last Tuesday.