Uk hospital now saying covid patients don’t seem as sick as they did at beginning of epidemic

[Blueberryham]

Just saw on yahoo news

absolutely the over 80s are being more cautious as are most of us.

www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/06/19/no-itu-covid-19-patients-in-englands-biggest-hospital-trust-says-health-chief/

@MorrisZapp

@calamityjam

Most people who would be badly affected by Covid are taking a lot of precautions just now. The people the hospitals are seeing are not fully shielding

This might be the explanation. There are still plenty of vulnerable/ elderly about! Something like 60% of care homes are currently and have been kept covid free so they will not have any immunity and could get v sick should covid get into their care homes (hopefully not!)

The phenomenon described of the very vulnerable dying at first, inflating the apparent rate of very severe morbidity followed by mortality (i.e. excess deaths on a large scale), is apparently an epidemiological phenomenon known as 'harvesting'. Pretty uncomfortable name for it but interesting to read about: www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/08/care-home-residents-harvested-left-to-die-uk-government-herd-immunity

Because the most susceptible have had it, now we are seeing the tail of moderately susceptible representing more of the cases.

There will be a lot of susceptible people out there - antibody levels suggest we are a long way from herd immunity, but they are generally shielding or taking particular care so far less likely to be infected. Back in March they were just carrying on like everyone else, got infected, and were more
severely effected. That seems to be the most likely conclusion. I’ve not seen anything that suggests that the virus has changed biologically.

It is a fascinating illness but I agree may be due to the most vulnerable dying first. One issue might be vitamin D which I have gone on about frmo the start and new research shows those who die of CV19 have much much ower levels than those who pull through - it is one reason the worst thing the state did at the start was stop everyone in the garden without a garden from sitting in the sun (the best way to get vit D and why I think in part I have only seen a GP once in 15 years - I get out in few clothes from April to Oct for 15 mins without suncream)

By June British white people will have had enough vit D. in early March their levels tend to be lower due to winter - another reason winter colds are worse too.

There has been an increase of cases when I live

probably mainly younger people at the moment, so less likely to be severely ill. Hopefully also better vitamin D levels, as that is something we can all change before winter. Maybe also lower viral load as the people getting infected were more distant from the person infecting them.

So lots of possible reasons - but not reason to be significantly less cautious.

Hopefully the virus us attenuating.

Err because the whole thing was a joke. The amount of numpties that still are self isolating is funny as hell. If your old sure, if not get out and meet people. The Government, media, mumsnet got it all wrong. It was Fairly obvious the virus was not a killer.

Still the majority seem to think isolating did something good. It didn’t, the lockdown was an awful decision made by people who good it wrong but will never admit it.

I was wondering this as there seems to be quite a few cases and outbreaks springing up but the numbers of deaths are still going down. I guess it could be a number of things...

The most vulnerable have already been taken by covid?
The weather is warmer, we have more vit D in our bodies?
The fact people are being more careful is reducing the number of spores passed to others?

probably 60 thousand deaths and that is With lockdown

@user1471510720

Err because the whole thing was a joke. The amount of numpties that still are self isolating is funny as hell. If your old sure, if not get out and meet people. The Government, media, mumsnet got it all wrong. It was Fairly obvious the virus was not a killer.

Still the majority seem to think isolating did something good. It didn’t, the lockdown was an awful decision made by people who good it wrong but will never admit it.

What the whole virus was a joke?

The over 80s I know of are shielding, so not out and about and having very limited contact with anyone. For example, my 92y nana hasn't been out for months now, whereas she was very active and out an about before all this. She has had visitors but only limited and with masks and gloves, etc. My other nana, who was also just turned 92y, was in hospital during this for other reasons and did contract CV19 there. She sadly died in hospital, though Covid isn't on her death certificate -- that just saids frailty of old age. She did die with Covid, but she also ill with another unspecified infection too. Neither are mentioned.

Therefore most very elderly are very unlikely to now get it. As are those who are in the extremely vulnerable group. Even the clinically vulnerable but not shielding are often having relatively little contact to less likely to be catching it.

Could it be that the most vulnerable, and the most likely to be extremely ill with it, just aren't being seen in hospitals much because they are currently less likely to get it due to shielding? Unlike at the start?

*user1471510720

Ah, if only you'd been part of WHO, or high up in the Governments across the world so you could have shared your expert scientific view. Maybe the world could have just kept going if you'd have the chance to tell them you knew from the start it was never going to be an issue anyway!

@londoncalling
The darker the skin the more likely you are to be Vitamin D deficient hence the BAME deaths. Black and olive skin does not produce as much Vit D as white.

So what about all the other countries who are badly impacted, is that a joke too?

I read that viruses often mutate to become less dangerous/lethal, because it's not in their evolutionary interest to kill off their hosts- they need their hosts out and about spreading the virus around, not alone at home in bed or isolated in the hospital. Is that's what happening here maybe?

@Jaxhog

Ah, Yahoo news - the beacon of truth and accuracy. I don't think so!

Don't believe everything you read on social media.

People really do want this virus to stay, don’t they...

We certainly (along with Italy and East USA) had a more potent strain initially. Whereas, for example West USA and China was a milder strain. Beijing has locked down and has said it now has the more potent strain there. It’s one of the reasons why it’s so difficult to compare countries to one another.

Yes the potent strain was known as "Boris Johnson" and "Donald Trump".

I've heard it all now.

Yahoo news? Have you been surfing 2003 again?

:-)

Every 2/3 years I see a referrence to Yahoo and that's always my thought too.

Not sure I'd put too much stock in the vitamin D thing.

I doubt that's the main factor, but there may be a link.

Viral load may be less in new cases becasue people are taking precautions. We are catching cases much earlier than the beginning of the epidemic because we finally have mass testing for all. We also have much better treatment regimes than 3 months ago. As PP says, many of the most vulnerable will not be the ones catching the disease at the moment.

It's not really surprising that death rates have gone down. Places like Germany achieved that a lot sooner.

People really do want this virus to stay, don’t they...

Scepticism about a vague news report based on anecdotal evidence is hardly wanting the virus to stay.

It was Fairly obvious the virus was not a killer.

The families of 50,000 people would disagree with you.

Complete anecdote but people I know who had an early bout -Feb/March were ill for ages.
People having a more recent bout have been mild or no symptoms.

A legitimate news source like The Guardian

Now that really is an out of date reference.

A legitimate news source like The Guardian

Hahahahahaha