Uk hospital now saying covid patients don’t seem as sick as they did at beginning of epidemic

[Blueberryham]

Just saw on yahoo news

We started taking a multi vitamin as soon as this started and we added a vitamin d supplement when it was suggested vitamin d defficiency might be a problem. I am sure we’re not the only family to have done that which might be having a bit of an impact, perhaps?

Imagine if this does go away on its own. The cost we have spent on a vaccine and lockdown, we will be paying back for a generation.

I imagine it's helped that they are admitting more moderate cases now for the oxygen like Boris had. In early days you'd have to be more poorly, blue lips and gasping and at that point it was likely to be a poor prognosis anyway

This was my first thought too.

Imagine if this does go away on its own. The cost we have spent on a vaccine and lockdown, we will be paying back for a generation

Alex50 Without lockdown, the amount of deaths would be much, much higher. The cost of ongoing care of COVID patients - as it’s known that a great deal are left with significant health issues - would be astronomical. Then you have COVID still moving around in the population, probably mutated. Not only would the health system be unable to cope with in the influx, so would the economy. There would not be enough supplies. Not enough beds. Not enough cemeteries. Food chains collapse as the people that run them fall ill - need I go on?

Lockdown for a while in a time like this is essential to preserve life for the next generation.

@TheClaws we’ll see, only time will tell.

@Alex50

Imagine if this does go away on its own. The cost we have spent on a vaccine and lockdown, we will be paying back for a generation.

I agree I think there has been one hell of an overreaction

We know the over 80s are mostly likely to get very ill, and they are in relatively short supply now.

How many people do you think have died? 3.2 million over 80s in the UK. Only 46k dead in total. Its hardly made a dent.

Imagine if this does go away on its own. The cost we have spent on a vaccine and lockdown, we will be paying back for a generation

Lots of studies have shown the viral pattern has been the same in each country irrespective of prevention methods. Looks like climate/season is causing change.

And even if the lockdown did make a difference, its all being undone with mass protests, raves and encouragement into shops.

We would have been better off sheilding vulnerable and socially distancing for a long period, rather than lockdown for a short period.

Then you have COVID still moving around in the population, probably mutated.

Its my understanding that viruses become less deadly as they mutate. Because killing your host is not beneficial to the viruses survival. Spanish flu mutated to just become a seasonal flu. At the start it was killing young fit people and had horrible symptoms.

The reason cold virus is so sucssesful (from the viruses pov) is because its mild. So we spread it around.

With regards to it vitamin D and the argument about S. America. Brazil has high levels of vitamin D insufficiency.

More research out last week on the link to low vitamin D and people with COVID in ICU. We don’t have all the answers but it does seem to play a part..

It wouldn’t be beyond reason to think all the good weather we’ve been having through April and May have had some impact on vitamin D levels.

Plus earlier intervention and lower vital load...

But it is interesting the virus is following the same pattern in most countries regardless of the level of lockdown.

Imagine if this does go away on its own. The cost we have spent on a vaccine and lockdown, we will be paying back for a generation

But it's NOT gone away on it's own. It's reducing BECAUSE OF the lockdown etc. Prior to lockdown, it was increasing exponentially, schools and hospital wards were closing due to staff shortages (staff self isolating due to symptoms or being off sick with covid). There was never an alternative to the lockdown because basic precautions such as hand washing, catching sneezes, avoiding large gatherings etc wasn't enough to stop the exponential growth (because too many people weren't following basic hygiene advice).

Because killing your host is not beneficial to the viruses survival.

That myth has been disproved many times.

Imagine if this does go away on its own.
The cost we have spent on a vaccine and lockdown, we will be paying back for a generation.

You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope some day you'll join us
And the world will be as one

The reason cold virus is so sucssesful (from the viruses pov) is because its mild. So we spread it around.

Which cold virus is that? There are thousands. Many are very much not mild. Covid 19 is caused by a 'cold virus' in so far as such a thing exists.

Let's just pray it's true. Only time will tell.

What do you mean by saying the virus is following the same pattern worldwide regardless of lockdown?

Do you mean cases and deaths per day are now coming down in Brazil and Peru and Sweden?

The pattern will be broadly the same. Steep rise, level off and then decline in number of cases
Death rate typically highest around the peak , or basically whenever the cases excels the medical capacity
Rate up depends on things like population density,
Rate down depends on how many people have already been infected, how strict a lockdown is enforced and what other tracing and control measures are use

What varies with lockdown is how many people die in the process , and who.

Even in this country the poor and deprived areas are worst hit, that's also true in places like Brazil, because the rich and lockdown voluntarily whilst the poor have far fewer options . Sweden have noticed the economic impact of people effectively locking themselves down.

So saying the pattern is the same is both true and open to significant miss-interpretation , and basically not providing any insight

So what happened to SARs and bird flu? Did they disappear or mutate to a less deadly virus?

I agree I think there has been one hell of an overreaction

@EnlightenedOwl you’re in a very fortunate position to be able to hold that opinion, you’re not going to be in a position to have your stance tested are you?

Medics, epidemiologists and statisticians globally have concluded otherwise (granted with a smaller minority rebutting which is good and there should always be questioning) but by and large the consensus has been that drastic intervention was needed to avoid a larger tragedy than we’ve already seen.

To paraphrase Dr Fauci, any successful action taken now will look like an over reaction in the future. That’s what averting disaster looks like.

I’m not even trying to hint that there has been no economic impact, of course there has and it will be long lasting and far reaching, but our interventions are a red herring. The economy would’ve been fucked with or without restrictions and lock down.

Alex50 what are the differences for SARS 1 and 2 virus? Asymptomatic cases, vaccine readiness etc

Also to Alex50 what is happening in Brazil?

So what happened to SARs and bird flu? Did they disappear or mutate to a less deadly virus?

I'm not sure about bird flu. But SARS doesn't have a very good infection rate because people get very ill and so don't go around infecting people. So it nevee became a global pandemic. It hasn't gone anywhere, it just doesn't caz massive pandemics.

The reason covid speads so well is because its only got mild symptoms for most people.

Not all viruses mutate, or they do but not significantly. My comment about mutation was in reference to someone claiming that the virus would be in the population mutating and becoming more deadly. I was pointing out that was not that likely. It's more likely to become less deadly with mutations, or not significantly mutate at all.

Spanish flu which killed millions is now just nonral seasonal flu. The same will happen with coivd.

H5N1 (avian influenza - and there are a few kinds) is relatively rare. It is another zoonotic pathogen like COVID - is that why you brought it up?

I hear a virologist on the radio a few weeks ago saying that - as others upthread have said- A virus tends to the mess lethal as time goes by and it mutates. I took notice as I was worried at the beginning that it could get more deadly.

It's odd to me that people keep assuming the 'shielding' group have not left the house for months. Many HAVE to leave the house and attend frequent medical appts where statistically, they would be more at risk of CV than non-shielding people who just pop to the supermarket once a week and take outdoor exercise.

Alabama - I never said that in the process of mutation, COVID would become more deadly.