World beating Track and Trace

[longwayoff]

What's happened to this? I've lost track of days, weeks, months and now this. Boris was proclaiming it's worth last time I saw him on TV. Is it working? Has it gone countrywide? What's going on?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53083340

Even if only half the people contacted by T&T comply with the instruction to self-isolate, that will be valuable because it halves the number of potentially infected people wandering round potentially infecting others. It bears down on the rate of infection. It brings forward the day when more restrictions can be relaxed without risking the health and lives of thousands of people.

How much better it would be if 100% complied, rather than the 85% reported after the first week. And how much better would it be if everyone who tested positive was willing to supply details of their contacts, rather than the 2/3 reported after the first week’s operation.

I agree that the government’s handling of this has been as full of holes as Swiss cheese. And clearly a manual system will not help with the people you were with on the bus or in the waiting room. But not working with the bits of the system that are effective is NOT a rational way of responding to that.

They managed to get contacts from 5,407 of the 8,117 people referred for tracing. That's out of approximately 13,000 people who tested positive that week (no explanation has been given as to why the rest of the 13,000 weren't referred for tracing). So, under half of the people who tested positive gave contacts, and then 85% of those were contactable. That means they are managing to get in touch with about 35% of potential contacts. We then don't have figures on how many of those who were contacted actually complied, but it's presumably going to take another bite out of the shrinking pie.

In other countries, contacts are asked to test, not just isolate. We're not doing that here, for some reason. Given that we strongly suspect asymptomatic spread, this seems very unwise.

To go with our world beating number of deaths!
Don't download the app once it's ready. The private company will own and sell the data and they have a terrible track record. They have already accidentally shared the private email addresses of the tracers

It isn't just the UK moaning apparently the German system doesn't work properly yet, and the French system won't play nicely with other systems (think Schengen). Bill Gates hould have focused on tracing systems and left the medical stuff to the medics.

no explanation has been given as to why the rest of the 13,000 weren't referred for tracing

Many cases are in the system. Inpatients, care home residents and staff so contacts will be monitored.

you see I am struggling to understand this.
For the purposes of track and trace the only people who need to isolate are those who have been in "close contact" ie spent more than 15 minutes with someone within less than 2M.
When will this actaully apply to anyone if they are complying with all the guidelines??
To the PP who mentioned Drs surgeries or buses - no because you now have to wear face coverings in both those setting, plus GP surgeries are being set up to avoid patients being within 2M of each other.
All workplaces are supposed to be COVID secure. My NHS community outaptient building for example has been turned into something resembling a war zone and EVERYONE on site has to wear a mask at all times.
Shops are being told to ensure all people remain 2M apart
and the guidelines still advise to stay 2M apart from those you meet that are not in your household.
So basically, unless you have broken the guidelines you will never have actually been within "close contact" with anyone. And if you have broken the guidelines surely people will not be enthusiatic to admit this when contacted??

Apparently now the app won't be ready 'till winter', if that! FFS.

Coronavirus: Health Minister says app should roll out by winter'

A government minister has said the NHS coronavirus contact-tracing app is "not a priority" and he was not sure it would be out by winter.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-53083340

no explanation has been given as to why the rest of the 13,000 weren't referred for tracing

I imagine it's because a lot of people are also still fairly locked down - I'm wfh and shopping at quiet times, if I caught it the only people who would meet the criteria would be my immediate household so no further tracing required. That and the fact that many of these cases are in care homes as someone else pointed out above.

I have no idea why people are so caustic about teething problems in a new massive system, I can only think they've never experienced a roll out of software, operational processes etc even on a small scale! I'd like to see some of you do it better.

Plus the media wants to stir up emotion in people at every opportunity.

The New York Times is pretty condemming about the UK's approach. This was in their morning briefing today:

'Prime Minister Boris Johnson is betting he can safely reopen a country hit harder by the coronavirus pandemic than any other in Europe.
But he has fielded criticism over a botched school reopening plan, a controversial 14-day quarantine and an inconsistent contact-tracing operation that may risk a second wave of deaths.
The “world-beating” operation was supposed to trace people who had been exposed to the virus, bridging the time between lockdown and a vaccine. But more than a dozen public health officials, local government leaders and contact tracers told our reporters the system was begun on May 28 before it was ready.
Details: Since the operation began, some contact tracers have failed to reach a single person. Many, paid barely above minimum wage, began the work with little to no training. Call handlers have mistakenly tried to send patients in England to testing sites in Northern Ireland. And a government minister threatened to stop coordinating with local leaders if they publicly revealed the operation’s failings, three officials said.
Context: While the virus is cooling in London, infection rates remain high in parts of England, notably the northwest. Other European nations are building systems to pinpoint infection clusters for years to come. Germany, for instance, has hired contact tracers in 375 public health authorities, with doctors on hand to administer tests.'

It isn't just the UK moaning apparently the German system doesn't work properly yet, and the French system won't play nicely with other systems (think Schengen). Bill Gates hould have focused on tracing systems and left the medical stuff to the medics.

The French system hasn't been widely downloaded, but in fairness there are hardly any cases in France now - I think these systems are mainly useful in an actual epidemic and they'll be available (and more useful) in a second wave.

Effective test and trace is always going to be a labour intensive activity and I think the UK's error has been to make it too centralised. In France tracing and testing is managed by primary healthcare providers and the regional health agencies. It seems to be being done competently.

The New York Times is pretty condemming about the UK's approach

I heard they seem a bit anti UK recently . Like the US approach is better

@Orangeblossom78

The New York Times is pretty condemming about the UK's approach

I heard they seem a bit anti UK recently . Like the US approach is better

They are pretty negative about the US's approach too. They certainly do not support Trump.

There's something about the app in the Times today as well. Says it is about Apple, that the app is not working on apple phones and that is why the delay.

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ministers-blame-apple-as-they-consider-ditching-coronavirus-tracing-app-fvdmfd8w5

@cakeisalwaystheanswer

It isn't just the UK moaning apparently the German system doesn't work properly yet, and the French system won't play nicely with other systems (think Schengen). Bill Gates hould have focused on tracing systems and left the medical stuff to the medics.

No countries app works properly yet. It is a very hard thing to do. But it is one thing in a basket full of methods including manual test and trace. It all helps , even if it is not all perfect. Testing is actually very good now. Could definately argue our testing is world leading now. It definately wasn't 2 months ago. The uk has so many positives including the response of the british people. Look at how many volunteer for clinical trials, vaccine testing etc. We should be proud of them. I know i am.

@nellodee

They managed to get contacts from 5,407 of the 8,117 people referred for tracing. That's out of approximately 13,000 people who tested positive that week (no explanation has been given as to why the rest of the 13,000 weren't referred for tracing). So, under half of the people who tested positive gave contacts, and then 85% of those were contactable. That means they are managing to get in touch with about 35% of potential contacts. We then don't have figures on how many of those who were contacted actually complied, but it's presumably going to take another bite out of the shrinking pie.

In other countries, contacts are asked to test, not just isolate. We're not doing that here, for some reason. Given that we strongly suspect asymptomatic spread, this seems very unwise.

Alot of the 13000 are already known. E.g in care homes . No need to get others to track their contacts. They are known

@ThousandsAreSailing

To go with our world beating number of deaths! Don't download the app once it's ready. The private company will own and sell the data and they have a terrible track record. They have already accidentally shared the private email addresses of the tracers

World beating deaths as world beating official collection of deaths. Spain hasn't reported an official death for a couple of weeks now. Another thing we are brilliant at is data collection. Our ONS is world beating too!

I have no idea why people are so caustic about teething problems in a new massive system, I can only think they've never experienced a roll out of software, operational processes etc even on a small scale! I'd like to see some of you do it better.

Probably because the govt hasn't been honest in the first place about how long developing such a system takes, instead of saying it will be 'world beating' and they expected it to be rolled out early in June! The public aren't meant to be experts in software development, but the govt are expected to be talking with people who are experts, and they should give the public an honest assessment instead of untruths.

I'd far rather they did not roll it out unless it was working properly

Feedback from the trialled said people preferring speaking to a person rather than an app (like with track and trace) and I get that too

Overall I think I prefer the latter approach and feel with the app as well it might get tricky especially for older people who might not have smart phones

Also it does not pick up that people can pick up the virus from surfaces which may be more of a problem than just being near people and might give a false sense of reassurance, nothing is simple

Feedback from the trialled said people preferring speaking to a person rather than an app (like with track and trace) and I get that too

Yes, I think people in the UK are more likely to comply when contacted by a person, rather than pinged a text. We're less compliant and used to lower levels of state control than some of the south east Asian countries where apps have been successful.

And thankfully would not have e.g. people videoing us like it those countries to check we comply. I don't want to live somewhere like that, do you?

I think there is an app "coming online". I have read that they got one of Cummings's mates to do it and it was a balls up, so they had to reverse engineer the app out the equation to cover up its unreadiness.

The other problem, as I understand it, is that we alone have gone for an unwieldy centralised system, whereas the rest of the world have long realised you need to devolve this to local services, not least the GPs, who have been kept in the dark.

I have my own theory, which I don't think anyone else has said, that the change in message from "Stay at Home" to "Stay Alert" is a clue that this was weeks' later than intended. Stay Alert - Control the Virus - Save Lives was rightly ridiculed at the time for being nonsensical, but it actually makes sense if it in support of a track and trace system.

"When wandering around, be aware of who you talk to as you'll need to list all the people you see, to stop the virus spreading."

I reckon that Plan A was a projection that the infection rate would drop, a track and trace app system would be ready, and Boris would be able to signal a new phase was in operation, dovetailed with a nice new sign on his podium.

So the infection rate then doesn't drop as the care homes go belly up, and the app isn't nearly ready, but Boris wants to show progress.

"I'm afraid the app isn't working yet, Prime Minister."

"Then we'll just have to ring people up, won't we?"

"But we'll have to hire 20,000 people to do that."

"Best make a start then."

"But even that will take time. What about the green posters? We've already stuck them to the podiums."

"They're fine - leave them as they are. Gives people something to look at."

"But without something the means to track and trace, Stay Alert doesn't mean anything. We'll just look stupid."

"I'll think of something - as we used to say after smashing up a restaurant in the Bullington Club - you worry too much."

I haven't read the whole thread as I'm at work so apologies if this has been covered.

The test and trace program is up and running and I'm working for them as a Clinical contact tracer. The app is not running. I've been doing the job for a few weeks.

When people have a test they are asked to give an email address and mobile phone number and if they test positive they are automatically invited to input their information in to the system.

If they don't respond it's escalated to my level.

It's my job to call confirmed cases of Covid, provide medical advice and support and signpost to other agencies if the contact needs extra help. I then explore their contacts.

The contacts are then called by call handlers (non-medical and the level below me)

Regarding things like public transport and gatherings etc. Yes, we cannot capture these contacts but the aim is to look for patterns and pockets of infection. I believe that in Aus/NZ they publish things like flight info where cases have confirmed (but don't quote me on this) so it's used for public health information

As someone said at the start of the thread, contact tracing will only work is people engage with it. And people really don't like answering their phones these days :(

My experience has been positive and the cases have told me they have felt very satisfied with the advice and support I've provided and they've felt reassured.

I hope this explains a little bit about what we do.

If they dont answer the phone do you email or text? I would never answer the phone to a withheld number or a number I didnt know.

How would you handle it if all I could tell you was, say, I went to a supermarket on this date and approx time?