Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

@StrawberryJam200

How does 184 compare with last Wed, seems quite high?

Last weds was 245.

7 day Rolling average down again, from 155 to 146.

Shoots you said hospitals are "empty" then produce figures for the height of the pandemic showing that actually they continued to admit both elective and non elective patients even when dealing with large numbers of Covid patients and deaths. Those that dont die occupy beds for quite a while making it difficult to admit anyone else to those beds. They also had quite a lot of staff off sick why many organisations have struggled to provide the same level of service.

You quote a few recent figures for Covid-19 as if that was the entire workload of hospitals, - it isnt and wasnt even in April. However as no recent figures are available for admissions and bed use you have no evidence for saying they are "empty". What evidence do you have to think figures for June, when we get them, will be lower than when the hospitals were still dealing with a lot of deaths and beds occupied by Covid-19 patients?

Perhaps you'd like to change your story now?

Thanks Derby- rather unfortunate typo there!!

It's sooo sloooow

Not sure if this page has been linked
but it shows the annual total deaths by Local Authority Area per year
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidenceenglandandwales
Which puts the figures on this map
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19interactivemap/2020-06-12
into some perspective

The figures on the second map are for three months, and only Covid deaths, so I am not sure what extrapolating I can do LQ?

Sorry, not meant to be snippy! Asking for help!

I did find something online that showed my area actually had a reduction in deaths from other causes and maybe 120 excess deaths because of CV but can't remember where I found it.

Hi Piggy
I was talking to somebody today who had been utterly petrified by the COVID headlines
then she and I looked at the map
then she asked the question about what a "normal" death rate was

so we scrolled out on the map and added up the wards in her borough
and compared it with the annual total in her borough
which
(a) made her realise how many people die every month without making headlines
(b) the COVID risk where she lives and where her kids should be at school is very, very low.

Sensible hygiene and a bit of distancing are essential
but real fear helps nobody

I'm sure there are much more detailed mashed data maps but I did not manage to find them today

Thanks LQ : that's what I did : just wasn't sure if I was missing something!

It's actually not been great for my area : it sticks out like a sore thumb in the region, actually. I am not sure why. Might be a higher than average number of care homes perhaps Or that the town is more impoverished than its general locality ( it is certainly not older; the reverse would be true).There ahs been a shocking number of deaths in one of the wards. But it is interesting that deaths from other circumstances have really declined in the last few months in my borough, unlike the surrounding country where it just about breaks even.

Not sure if we usually have a lot of deaths through accidents or some sort of strange anomaly!

Shoots you said hospitals are "empty" then produce figures for the height of the pandemic showing that actually they continued to admit both elective and non elective patients even when dealing with large numbers of Covid patients and deaths.

No, I produced the most recent figures, showing a decline of 60% in elective work. I don't have more recent figures.

What evidence do you have to think figures for June, when we get them, will be lower than when the hospitals were still dealing with a lot of deaths and beds occupied by Covid-19 patients?

You said I was posting 'lies'. Your words. I merely pointed out that this week and last that the weekly hospital deaths were below pre-covid19 levels. If there are fewer people dying, it follows that there are fewer people in hospital before that. Nothing more than that.

We do however also know that ICUs are much emptier than usual, that elective procedures have been cancelled, and that fewer people have presented in A&E

I'm not sure what part of this you are saying is wrong, however at a minimum it's clear that people who would have died in hospital in normal circumstances are dying elsewhere instead.

"I foresee many schools needing 3 weeks at the start of next term to decide how to tackle schooling, sort timetables, train teachers etc."

I'm shocked if this hasn't already been done - I was hoping that the appearance of chaos was misleading.

I understand that when schools returned pt here on 4 May, it was the result of several weeks planning and discussion,
so began during the higher deaths in March-April

Head teachers were given guidelines about distance, hygiene etc and asked to plan for their individual schools, including what resources they needed

• e.g. extra staff, budgets for training, then frequent deep cleans -

and what pt system they thought best suited their schools This new system had to slide in to replace some of the ongoing online education

They consulted with the local authorities and sent in the final version to be signed off.

It was decided - on the basis of need and ability to SD - that the first students to rotate in should be the final year of primary school and the 2 years at secondary with exams next year.
They agreed the reopening date and planned when to rotate in other forms
Also that PPE would be optional for staff & students, to help reassure those who wanted this secuirty

It was all done on the basis of consultation & information,
no grandstanding or scapegoating by anyone that I could see.
The whole process seemed reassuringly calm and professional, no drama

• which is as it should be: don't bugger about with kids' education

(paywall) FT: What past disasters teach us about the damage done by school closures

I'm baffled why UK schools were not reopened pt much earlier as priority #1
Did kids get forgotten somehow ?

In Germany, this happened at stage 1, before most shops could open, let alone restaurants etc
Also, playgrounds in my area at least, were never closed down
and exercise, sitting down etc was not restricted, so long as distancing was maintained

www.ft.com/content/ede3b7cb-59ca-41d6-9815-9263d1aee4c0

A gap that has opened up between the most & least deprived pupils while schools have been closed

Only half of students in deprived areas have been doing set work, vs 80% in the least deprived areas.

Researchers estimate that for the current cohort, this participation gap will feed into a sharp widening of the existing attainment gap between the most & least deprived, reversing years of progress.

Vit d again

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/uk-ministers-order-urgent-vitamin-d-coronavirus-review?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

BigChoc,

In England, the first schools knew about the date of return and the year groups for return was when Boris announced it.

No guidance at all was available for a couple of days (it looked as if the announcement caught the DfE on the hop as well, alongside the unions, teachers, heads and local authorities).

Detailed guidance for primaries was available after a week.

Over 40 changes were made to that guidance in the weeks leading up to 1st June.

Guidance for secondaries - and the deferred date of the 15th - was available a matter of days before 1st June.

Sadly, the appearance of chaos represents real chaos. It is a culture of promise first, release guidance later, get input from those who know something about education third, and then blame the teachers / schools / unions when what is promised can't be delivered....

It is a total failure of joined up thinking.

The absolutely shocking failure to realise that the Government's own policies:

• Bubbles of no more than 15
• Prioritise keyworkers
• No rotas, either daily or weekly

would mean that all years in primary would be unable to return without a doubling of both teachers and classrooms is the one that gets me.

Most state primaries that I know of are now full (ie have half their children in full time and can admit no more, with all classrooms full and all staff utilised) having admitted 3/7 year groups [or less] and also catering for keyworkers from the other 4 year groups.

Meanwhile secondaries are being allowed no more than 1/4 of each of 2 year groups per day (so 1/14 of their pupils).

I don't understand this disparity at all.

@BigChoc the more of your posts I read the more I want to move to Germany. I'm sure it's not all perfect, but it must be so reassuring to feel like things are being discussed and planned in an organised and measured way. The lack of preparedness, the complete and utter shambles of this government's handling of the crisis has exacerbated my anxiety way above what it would otherwise have been. I feel like I no longer recognise or belong in this country any more.

@cantkeepawayforever

It is a total failure of joined up thinking.

The absolutely shocking failure to realise that the Government's own policies:

• Bubbles of no more than 15
• Prioritise keyworkers
• No rotas, either daily or weekly

would mean that all years in primary would be unable to return without a doubling of both teachers and classrooms is the one that gets me.

Most state primaries that I know of are now full (ie have half their children in full time and can admit no more, with all classrooms full and all staff utilised) having admitted 3/7 year groups [or less] and also catering for keyworkers from the other 4 year groups.

Meanwhile secondaries are being allowed no more than 1/4 of each of 2 year groups per day (so 1/14 of their pupils).

I don't understand this disparity at all.

Agreed. I am/was very pro further opening of schools but quickly realised it wasn't going to possible if the guidance didn't change. I thought at one point they might shift the bubbles to 30 but they didn't really ever have enough time for that. It was a mess. They should have gone for part time with rotas to get all children back for sometime before the summer with a commitment for full time in September (providing cases don't significantly rise etc etc)

fading
And we have learned how to wait in proper lines , though not at bus stops I am afraid.

But big thanks to BigChocFrenzy my go to person for all things statistic-y.

ProkuP Yes, social distancing has taught Germans to queue properly ! 😂

cantkeepaway What a ridiculous way to try to get schools back

I've been reading many posters on other threads blaming unions & teachers, which is so unfair

fading Things work here, because the main parties have agreed for decades on funding public services adequately to make it all work.

I accept paying higher tax, in return for good services,
especially now we've seen that the systems all come together surprisingly well in a crisis.

There are a lot of competent technocrats in local and federal govt,
who are not exciting or good at telling jokes, but do know how to run things properly.

Great thread.
But when can we go back to our officesssssssss????

imo, the Uk response has been seriously hampered by centralisation,
which is inefficient, unresponsive and v v slow.

Public health, health services and schools seem to work better when organised at a local level,
with local staff with the local knowledge and autonomy to carry out national policy but tailored to the local situation and needs.

FT: A warning from South Korea: the ‘fantasy’ of returning to normal life
(free to read)

v interesting pov from a country that has been more successful tackling COVID than any European country

www.ft.com/content/d68d6292-0486-4bfc-bf5c-54ce850a3f7a

I thought at one point they might shift the bubbles to 30 but they didn't really ever have enough time for that.

And it would have put parents off more. Messaging was really very poor, trust in the government has gone too.

As someone has said in 'staffroom' - this shows what schools have been dealing with for years. The DfE is mostly hopeless, we have no money for anything extra (or what we actually need even). Disparity in school provision (in school and home learning) is indicative of this. Now that it has been literally put in people's faces, and affected their lives in a really obvious way, hopefully they'll be a) more understanding of what school leaders particularly are dealing with, and b) get cross enough to do something about it.