Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

@BigChocFrenzy

There's a study under way about childeren of Kindergarten age / Corona infections / childcare / re-opening plans with a first publication for May (pdf download). (The set to English button doesn't work for me.)

www.dji.de/veroeffentlichungen/aktuelles/news/article/761-studie-von-dji-und-rki-zur-schrittweisen-oeffnung-der-kindertageseinrichtungen-gestartet.html

This is the 'Our World in Data' 7 day rolling average chart for the UK.

What was the blip? It's dated June 3rd.

Thanks, prokup

Report shows kids aged < 6 had record low levels of respiratory infections after lockdown.
Also the number of COVID infections and the % posivie COVID tests fell

Graphs with my translations:

Would the "blip" have been the expansion of testing to everyone with symptoms @ohthegoats ? It's not the most useful data to look at for the period prior to testing being available for everyone tbh, though should be more useful going forwards

VE day blip VE day was 8th May

No idea - that's why I ask. I wondered if it was about VE day - well, not VE day itself, but the general feeling of 'meh' that kicked in around that time. Could also be about testing - but this isn't cases, it's deaths. Which probably were known cases. (I know that isn't always true either, but more likely than not).

I think the blip is when they added deaths with a positive pillar 2 test. Prior to 1st June only deaths with a pillar 1 test were included. They started adding the pillar 2 figures on 1st june (and retro added them from roughly 27th may to 1st june). They added a chunk of back dated deaths from prior to 27th may on the 1st june as well (some 400+l. It made the rate of decrease of daily death reported appear to slow but in fact we were just counting deaths we didn't count before.

The blip will because they are using the announced deaths data, which swings wildly, and not the actual day of death data. This means even the seven day average has quite some swing to it. June 3 saw a significant amount of backdated deaths added and lumped in to one day, so the swing was even higher then.

Ignore what I said about 27th may to 1st June (a lesson for myself to double check before I post, could have sworn I sure it somewhere). On 1st June they added a chunk of back dated deaths with a positive pillar 2 test, from the 1st june inclusive PHE started including deaths with a positive pillar 2 test in the daily figures. Before only deaths with a positive pillar 1 test were counted. So from beginning of june we were counting deaths we weren't counting before. This is the likely cause of the blip not society distanced conga lines

mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1267556317088165890

Or even socially distanced ones

Thanks very much for the experiences of being tested via the app. Very useful and interesting.

Article about risks of dying from Covid by age group. Distinguishes between infection fatalality rate and population fatality rate. Eg for a healthy woman aged 30-34 a 1 in 350,000 chance of dying from covid.

medium.com/wintoncentre/what-have-been-the-fatal-risks-of-covid-particularly-to-children-and-younger-adults-a5cbf7060c49

@Cedilla I was invited to test by the app for a slightly dodgy tummy a couple of weeks ago, just after testing opened up for everyone. With 3 young DC at home full time a test centre wasn't an option given the nearest is a 30 minutes drive away; but I was able to order a home test. It came the next day. What I didn't realise until too late is you need to log on before 4 pm to book a collection for the next day - if you miss the deadline you can't book until 8 am the next morning for collection a day later. There are about 10 pages of instructions but once you've got to grips with them I didn't find it difficult taking the swab. I got the results 3 days later.

I was also invited to test via the app, about a month ago. I had tonsillitis. I opted for an at home test because I was certain it was tonsillitis (I get it often) so wasn’t concerned about Covid. I could have been tested same day otherwise.

Test ordered Sunday PM, arrived Tuesday AM, returned Weds AM and results Thursday AM. I would opt for a testing centre if I had genuine concerns as I think the turn around would be faster.

Am I right in understanding that the regional data on the coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ website must be far from complete.

We are consistently reporting well over 1,000 cases per day, the bulk of which must be in England, but daily figures haven’t been more than 500 for a couple of weeks.

That's interesting derby, it doesn't look complete does it? I wonder if it's another pillar 1 vs pillar 2 thing but can't see anything to suggest that

"healthy woman"

We should give total figures for women or men in each age group, not just the "healthy"

If the intention of lower figures is to coax people back to work .... the vast majority of working age with underlying conditions will have to continue working
and they mostly have decades of life expectancy

(and of course women in that age group may be pregnant, which counts as "vulnerable" too)

@Derbygerbil

Am I right in understanding that the regional data on the coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ website must be far from complete.

We are consistently reporting well over 1,000 cases per day, the bulk of which must be in England, but daily figures haven’t been more than 500 for a couple of weeks.

Yep. Pretty sure that's only Pillar 1, which is now only about a third of tests now.

I wonder if it's another pillar 1 vs pillar 2 thing but can't see anything to suggest that.

Yes, it's in the "About the Data" tab:

The UK total is not the sum of the 4 National totals as the pillar 2 cases cannot currently be included in the individual National totals for England, Northern Ireland and Scotland. All other data on this website are based only on cases detected through pillar 1.

Cheers winter, thought I'd looked there but obviously not hard enough (it's Saturday and I'm drinking wine though )

ONS: Calculator with graph of COVID / all-cause mortality rate for your local authority area March-May
(England & Wales)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19bylocalareasanddeprivation/deathsoccurringbetween1marchand31may2020#local-authorities

e.g.

@Cedilla I did not take up the offer of a test as I am working from home and not going out, other than for walks, so was absolutely certain my symptoms were due to overdoing the gardening in the sunshine
I have friends who were invited and also did not take theirs up. They had GI symptoms but were certain they were from seafood eaten the day before

@PatriciaHolm

Thanks. The fact they only report 1/3 of the tests’ location is pretty crap, and extremely misleading. For instance, the DM today listed those local authority areas that had reported a single case over the past week, which they presumably used these published stats as the source.

Not been following data for awhile but could someone kindly say are daily positive infections going down?

Thanks for that Big.

Oh the sad irony of County Durham showing up so blue out of the rest of the country....