Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 10

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 10 of the daily updates.

Resource links:

Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 💐

@choma - the ONS report they their confidence intervals too. They are quite wide, because of the small number of infections found. But I think the bigger worry with that survey is whether the people who agree to take part are typical. They might be good public spirited people who want to do their bit to help research. And also the sort of people who follow lockdown rules very well. That's what can't easily be factored in to the confidence intervals.

The fact that the contact tracers failed to contact a third of infected people (but only about 15% of their contacts) suggests to me there may be a pool of people who don't cooperate with authority who are more likely to catch Covid because they don't like being told what to do (hence don't start away from friends etc). And they're not the ones doing the survey. But this shouldn't vary much week to week, so the downwards trend that the ONS found should be real.

@cathyandclare I was lightheaded and had aching last week after a heavy bout of gardening and the app emailed me to get a test. I have not gone as the cause seemed obvious and we are still living a very quiet life so haven't been anywhere to catch it
@FATEdestiny I live in a retirement area so there are far more care homes than most areas. I was surprised to find our ward has 15 deaths yet we do not know anyone who has had it despite the area being quite small and everyone knows everyone

Firefliess I read that the ons are asking people who've taken part in other ons surverys to take part in the coronavirus survey to ensure a spread (as if they opened it up to a call for volunteers, then you'd get a skewed sample). Whether this completely removes bias is debatable but it should help.

bigchoc, what's the distance rule in Germany?

Littlebelina
Berlin has 1,50 m in shops (we are asked to keep this distance), waiting lines (usually indicated on the pavement and shop floors), public transport (if possible). At work meetings we sit apart from each other and even pople talking, who have been working together the whole time observe this rule.
I commmute by underground and people start sitting and standing next to each other again, but all are wearing masks (about 98%).
And I have noticed that people start to ask permission to come closer as a sign of politeness.

ONS surveys are not going to be good at picking up small changes. While restrictions continue the virus can not increase again at the same rate. Once restrictions ease we could go go back to rapid growth unless there is a system that does pick up small changes rapidly.

track and trace are currently missing nearly something like 10000 contacts of those who wont give information and a further 4500 who refuse to self isolate.

It would be nice to think increased positive tests are all hospitals and care homes but this thread is supposed to be evidence based, where is the evidence?

If contact flags up the fact you are the other side of the country when you shouldn't be or that it means 2 weeks off work when you want to/ need to work, or you have been dealing drugs with half of your neighbourhood, or you are having an affair (agree these are extreme examples) then you aren't going to cooperate.

Thanks Prokup

@ShootsFruitAndLeaves

It seems to me that the R numbers are a load of bollocks since infection rates have been falling fast for weeks and weeks. Has anyone looked at the data underpinning them?

Agree totally. It was tosh before lockdown as testing was innaccurate in methodology and sampling so missed all community and asymptomatic transmission.

It is now tosh as case numbers not large enough to be meaningful, even though the process is better.

However, if we did get a second wave I guess it might hel but no more than case numbers.

I dont think the people worried still is necessarily the government messaging. In fact maybe despite it.
-17m people in vulnerable category who are supposed to strictly SD

• the number of young people around 40yo being seen in italy at their peak in hospital
• concern around long term organ damage
• high numbers 1/20 ? With ongoing symptoms and not feeling well

Also for me lack of trust in nhs with either getting oxygen or a bed if you need it or fixing any long term effects.

Looking at figures for apr and may in our area apr was low maybe 4 may about 8 deaths. But obviously dont know when in may. Maybe they were infected during lockdown.
It would surprise me if Bristol doesnr see a spike due to the protests mainly as infection there has been low so low immunity. It might take a couple of weeks if the protesters were mainly young and more affects their family members unfortunately.

The ONS chart of the uk loads of london very low deaths in may. Is the immunity there even higher than the 17% the gov are saying?

I begin to wonder what all this distancing and isolating does to our immune systems as a whole. Not exposing to the C-Virus eliminates exposure to other virae and bacteriae, too - which can't be a good thing.

It’s a good point about our immune systems.

I’m normally against anti-bacterial cleaning stuff but at the moment it’s a necessity with all the hand gel etc.

I haven’t had more than a sniffle since Jan. last time I was ill was an awful virus in October. I’ve never had such a long stint without illness but I worry we’ve not been exposing ourselves to low level illnesses and bacteria and building up immunity.

I had the best immune system when I used to get the tube every day. It’s so filthy and germ ridden but I was hardly ever ill.

My mum has just spent 10 days in hospital. Own room. No visitors. Only drs and nurses coming to do meds and once a day catch up.

She came home with a cold!

She's been shielding since match so there's probably something in the lack of exposure.

Is it 1 in 20 of people who are confirmed to have it and been symptomatic having long term effects? I cant see it being that high when you account for all the asymptomatic and mild cases. Didnt matt hancock say 70% of nhs staff getting positive antibody tests had reported no symptoms?

I worry about all the disinfectant that is being used. There is evidence that agricultural workers working in 1960s/70s have increased levels of myeloma from exposure to agrochemicals then.

Some viruses live months on surfaces -adenovirus and i think norovirus at least so unless you are constantly hand washing or washing shopping you are still being exposed.

Hardly surprising catching a cold in hospital and being inside would drop vit d levels too.

No preschool could save a lot of kids from ear infection and hearing loss.
I think lack of germs was bad for getting leukaemia?

I begin to wonder what all this distancing and isolating does to our immune systems as a whole.

I agree. I am thinking about my DD. Children need exposure to germs to build up immunity. Keeping them in over sterile environment cannot be good for their long term health.

My DD has now returned to nursery who seem quite relaxed and pragmatic and have not introduced any non sensical social distancing rules for small children. I am convinced exposure to other children will be beneficial both for her physical health and social development.

I think lack of germs was bad for getting leukaemia?

Yes. The evidence is not entirely conclusive (i.e. it is based on observational studies) but the research convinced me to stop sterilising baby equipment and take a very relaxed approach to potential germs in soft plays and playgrounds.

I’m very concerned about DS2’s immune system in light of the lockdown. He has had hardly any contact with anyone since he was 10 months old. He has had one cold when he was 4 months and some sort of virus in March (we all had it, might have been Covid, might have been another random virus) and that’s it. DS1 has at least had a good dosing of germs over the last few years at nursery! DS2 has started at the childminder now so I’m hoping that’s a start. DS1 also back at nursery so it’s an improvement.

Children need exposure to germs to build up immunity

Whilst this is obviously true I wouldn't worry about it too much.
As a baby my DS was ill every week with temperatures, grizzleness, colds etc. Even had measles before being old enough to have the vaccine. All this illness didn't really build up his immunity - he still caught coughs and colds at school as still does now he is a teenager !

I've been silently lurking for weeks - thank you all for an extremely valuable and balanced thread.

Can I ask about the Covid app? I've been on board with it from the beginning but haven't reported any symptoms because my occasional off days have been 'normal' for me (eg migraines).

For those who have reported symptoms and have been told to have a test, how does the process work? Do you have to go to a drive-in centre? How quickly did the results come back? Sorry - lots of questions there....

I reported minor symptoms and was emailed to go to a test, with a link, instructions and (I think ) a reference number.

I booked the test online. It was a while ago, around the time of the peak, before tests were widely available. I was offered postal or drive through. I booked one 10 miles away. It was quiet, no queue and they did the test for me.

I was texted the results (negative) in less than 48 hours.

I was so impressed I started a thread at the time, it would appear that not all areas were as well run then.

I was asked to go for one via the app, and my experience was similar to the lady who just posted, except that there was no option for them to do the test when I got there, despite the booking thing saying there would be. I'm not sure I did it completely correctly, I didn't think the instructions were that good tbh.

Tbh I was v pleased to do it just so as to have the experience which would be useful if/when the DC or a friend, or perhaps me feeling much more ill, needs one.

Quite aprt from the helping research aspect of course.

I was asked to do a test via the app, it was just before testing became available for all. I booked the test on a Sunday for the Monday afternoon, results came on weekends morning. I went to my nearest drive through which was in my town, it was a self test.

I should add, when I was in the booking app, it said the earliest anyone could book a test was the next day. That would have been difficult for me so I tried selecting a time on the day I was booking and it was accepted. So I booked at 9am, had test at midday (in fact earlier as I arrived early and they were quiet), and had results by 7am the next day!

No admissions figures today but deaths and tests here pbs.twimg.com/media/EaZzl4KXgAYxYRJ?format=jpg&name=small