No second wave?

[StealthPolarBear]

This has been predicted regularly for ages now but hasn't happened. I'm not aware that it has happened in other countries either. Particularly non evident after ve day. Are we any closer to understanding why as surely that would help to understand what we can do and what we can't? Is meeting outdoors the key? Or is it just too early.?

Bump

I think it’s too early to say surely?

Yes maybe. But you'd expect a week or so after big gatherings and we've had a few

And other countries whose first wave was earlier

It'll take as long as the first one to build and peak surely.

It'll be weeks and months, not days.

Yes you're probably right. But people have been predicting rises after various events.

The same thought has crossed my mind. Sadly, I think we'll know two weeks from now if we are susceptible to a second wave or if the virus has already largely passed around us. The protests are unfortunately a testing ground for the second wave theory. I really, truly hope that the virus landed in December and March/April was the second wave. (No idea if that is possible or not, it's just what I want to be the case)

I would think if cases are still low in two weeks time we can say we’re ok (possibly only for now if it is seasonal?). The lockdown easing only began last Monday. It takes 7 days to start to show symptoms and then you’ve got to get a test. Plus passing it on to others.

So if numbers are still flat by the end of the monthly, I think we can be fairly hopeful.

But people gathered on ve day. And didn't we have a bank hol around that time where scenes of packed beaches were splashed across the media?

I do seriously wonder if there will be one. Other countries have opened up and nearly all seem to be ok. I’m not sure why though!

Iran seems to be having a second wave.

It's too soon..
We won't be out of the woods until next March I reckon.

It’ll happen just not yet.

Interesting about Iran. I wonder if there are other countries.
What tells us the current alert level? I've Googled and found lots of references to it, but not the actual thing

If you look down on our life pre covid with mass gatherings, sports, shows/ cinemas pubs/ the underground/ all at work etc and compare it to now with lockdown plus the beaches/ ve day/ protests etc then in reality they are all outdours and in the grand scheme of things probably quite a small percentage of the big picture.
They just look bad when highlighted individually by the media.
The time for concern I believe is the Autumn when we are back to relative normality.

Iran have said it's not a second wave, it's down to increased testing. Who knows, though.

We are still on a downward trend so fingers crossed. The next few weeks are crucial.

Irans cases could be down to more testing? Are their deaths going up as well?

That's what I'm wondering. If outside isn't that big a deal then we need to know that. But no one seems to be looking at this

I think its too early to say.

Did people really gather on VE day? Ive heard people talk about this a lot but not actually heard of any real life gatherings

If we dont get a second peak it would be intersting to know why. What was causing the virus to spread before that we arent doing now? Is it weather?

Exactly

Who knows, but we aren't even out of this one properly, it will take more time.

But it isn't too eaely to point to specific events that people said would cause a second wave, more than two weeks ago and say no, that didn't come about.

No reason why the recent gatherings should cause a second wave. If 1 in a thousand has the virus, what is the chance of being next to that person for 15 minutes (outside) at the protests? Admittedly shouting doesn't help, but statistically there shouldn't be that many infected people at the protests (of course if they are all super-spreaders...)

Iran is new cases but it may be that have just increased testing and not that more people are getting it. Only now can everyone get a test in the country will we see the true amount of population that have covid. Before you could only get a test if you met the criteria. So the fact that the numbers are still decreasing is a good sign as more and more are being tested.

It's not happening and won't happen. We might have small increases in some areas but no 'wave'. There simply aren't enough cases in the community.