No second wave?

[StealthPolarBear]

This has been predicted regularly for ages now but hasn't happened. I'm not aware that it has happened in other countries either. Particularly non evident after ve day. Are we any closer to understanding why as surely that would help to understand what we can do and what we can't? Is meeting outdoors the key? Or is it just too early.?

I think the prediction is that we might have a second wave later in the year, most likely if people throw all caution to the wind now that restrictions are being lifted.

Why worry? It might not happen. If it does it won't be any worse than the last few months and we've managed.

It might spark out like SARS, or it may become endemic.

If it comes back, we are more prepared. The track and trace will be in place properly by then.

We could have a bump in the winter but I doubt we will have a huge wave.

I'm in Germany and our virologists think we may have learned enough to avoid a 2nd wave, especially one as bad as the first (under 9,000 deaths so far)

because of mass testing, mass contact tracking, early isolation, very localised lockdowns of new outbreaks, continued mask-wearing, banning of large events .....

and because it's not the bloody flu

@Lynda07 why worry? Because a few more months of this and we will have no hospitality industry left. No tourism, very little retail and all that will mean massive unemployment and every business that relies on consumer spending dropping like a stone.

Or we have enormous government debt. The forecast is already to reach levels of debt not seen in 300 years. If we keep having to prop up jobs and business we could get close to world war levels of debt (ww2 ended with us £3.6trillion in debt in today's money, we are already on track for £2trillion).

The WW2 debt took 60 years to pay back, finally in 2006. That was in a much higher growth environment than the Uk is looking at in the next 60 years.

If we can't contain a second wave and have another national shutdown we're seriously fucked.

It will be autumn winter months when we hit a second peak

WHO has 1 meter now 2 m by the way and an expert on Radio 4 this lunch time said 2 m is a mistake and is one of the worst things and which is causing schools to have so many problems.

@weepingwillow22
Given that our current death rate exceeds Germany's at the peak of its first wave I don't think we can even assume we are over the first wave yet

At the peak of its first wave? I wasn't aware they had had more than one?

I think there could well be a second “protest” peak but it will be 3 or 4 weeks. Given the demographic and the fact that most vulnerable people wouldn’t have attended the protests, I think a lot of people would have caught the virus but with no/low symptoms. It’s the next generation of people they pass it on to who will suffer and end up in hospital