What is the long term plan for schools?

[TeaAndASitDown]

My 5yo is back at school and it seems to be a nurturing and calm environment so far. However, the school is only running at about 15% capacity I'd guess.

With no further lockdown planned over the summer, what are the govt planning to do about education come September?

Will they scrap social distancing in schools, or will all children only attend half the time? I can't think of any other real option?

Personally I would like to see a strict lockdown over summer, eradicate community transmission, properly quarantine people coming in to the country. Then we have a fair shot at restarting education properly in September.

Herc and fraser this is hard isn't it. And the reality until we have a vaccine or herd immunity.

The current situation in schools isn’t sustainable. As a teacher I hate it. I really hope that the infection rate is low enough in September for us to have whole class bubbles.

It would make a big difference as well if we were allowed to bubble with one other household for childcare. We are a two teacher household with a vulnerable toddler who isn’t allowed in childcare yet (doctor’s advice). Until my under-70 not vulnerable Mum is able to look after him, neither of us can work physically at our schools full time.

My reception child is only attending two days . They did this so they could potentially have all children back .

Tea what area of the NHS do you work in? There is a huge backlog as we have been concentrating on Covid and we are just starting to see routine cases. We really cant reduce capacity for 6 weeks.
I think the best hope is that track and trace is working well by september numbers are low and more kids will be allowed in each class.

@TeaAndASitDown

How would everyone feel about a proper, strict lockdown over the summer holidays?

I have young children and feel daunted and exhausted at the idea.

But. If everyone did it, it would work. We could halt community transmission. We could all but eradicate covid and what was left could be contained by a track and trace system which would be given months in which to get up and running.

I would do it. We could be almost normal again, come September.

We had a proper lockdown for 9 weeks- it didn’t work as it wasn’t really a proper lock down. It would be impossible to eradicate COVID in 6 weeks- some people need to work, hospitals and care homes need to be open etc. A proper lockdown is impossible if people want to eat, have access to healthcare etc.

I’m not doing another half hearted lockdown that massively impacts on my quality of life and that of my children for absolutely bugger all.

@stress I understand that. I think at this point though, and with some notice, a full lockdown is the 'least worst' option. For children, for shielding people, and for the health service as well.

I agree that hopefully track and trace will be making a difference by September.

Yes myfriend we did it badly, for sure. If we did it again I'd model it on NZ.

The information we have had says that at first YR, Y1 and Y6 will be in for four full days. When other year groups are brought back it will be only 2 days a week.

I think for the foreseeable future we will have part time school

I have no idea and it terrifies me.

The gap between rich and poor will just get wider and wider. It sounds like state schools are likely to be offering 50% schooling at best. That will both prevent parents working and be detrimental to the education of children who cannot access good quality online learning at home. I work in a private school and I would be amazed if we are not fully open to all children from Sept - we only have an average of 15 per class anyway and we have lots of outdoor space. That will mean these already privileged children get more education (and those who can't/won't come in have devices and internet access) and that their parents can continue to work full time.

On another thread someone was saying that ONS is now saying daily infections have reduced from 8000 to 5600, let's hope we can continue with it. Ideally I would like to see the scrapping of social distancing in school. It would feel like normality is returning.

My DS is due to start secondary school in September, and he'd have to get the bus. At the moment I am not happy about this (DP is clinically vulnerable, his GP has said he is still low risk - slightly higher than what the DC and I are - but I would rather keep the opportunity for the virus coming into the house as low as possible) so I can see DP driving him for a while whilst I walk DD to primary school.

As for a proper lockdown over the summer I don't think it's viable. The economy is tanking as it is, and even though the one we've just had was pretty lax lockdown I don't think people would tolerate it. I do think it's right that we have a quarantine system in place for everyone coming into the country, this virus is rampaging through Central and South America at the moment we need to stop anyone bringing it in. People can fly from Central/South America to Europe and then on into The UK so we need to control that.

Go On, @teaandsitdown. Tell us what a "proper strict lockdown" would entail. What was missing previously? Do you quite enjoy the snitching culture that Jacinta Adhern has promoted? Breach counts lead the new bulletins in NZ each night. Such a lovely culture ... I imagine never wanting to live in.

How are mental health services doing in your area? My local trust has been in special measures most of the last 10 years. I'm sure they'd love more clientale.

Manic the widening inequality gap is what makes me wish we had locked down properly too. I agree with everyone saying it's too late and the public wouldn't agree to it. It still feels like the best thing though, given the alternative and all the life long ramifications.

Lljkk I don't know what you mean about enjoying a snitching culture, of course I wouldn't. I don't know if we'd need it. But I do know that id rather a few 'snitches' for six weeks than the widespread death, poverty and inequality we will see from the slow burn of covid through our society for the next year or so.

I hope so deelish

Love your earlier idea of furloughing all key workers with kids over the summer.

If love for someone else to sit in my combine doing 16 hour days for 4 weeks and I'll sit at home with the kids.

Small problem in that there's even less flour on the shelves and all that......

Flowery that sounds tough, thank you for doing it.

Most countries will get back to normality 3-4 months after their peak. China has returned to complete normality for a good few weeks now (airport quarantine aside). No face masks required everything reopened as normal.

But with Bojo the racist clown and his bunch of hapless yes men leading this country anything could yet happen. All bets are off. Perhaps they will give 60% herd immunity another shot.

What @stressbucket1 said. The NHS is only 'coping' because we've stopped a huge amount of routine activity. Which has already accrued a massive health debt that many people will never recover from. You're suggesting we now furlough a large amount of our staff (who, how many, where from?) thus reducing services even further.

We need to focus on remobilising services (which in reality isn't going to look anything like the health service people know and expect), not cutting them even more. If you work in a hospital you know this.

Schools are planning for social distancing and part time schooling in this area well into the next term. I know some elsewhere are planning up till April. I read that in an article someone posted here.

It's been very hit and miss and chaotic but, hopefully, over the summer there will be some decent planning and it will be better next term.

We can always hope for a vaccine miracle because all of us would like to get back to what was normal but that's unlikely.

To everyone who is insistent that we cannot cope without key worker childcare: what if this pandemic had affected children? What if sending them to childcare had been a huge risk to their health? We would have had to cope without some staff. And we would have.

And I know that we are straining at the seams with backlog. And I know that this is awful. But as I said, I think lockdown for six weeks in a months time is the least worst option compared to what we have ahead now.

I've been grateful to hear what people think. Thank you for the chat and for the info about what's happening locally, it's interesting to know. I'm off to work shortly so will head off for now.

Haven't rtft, but I think that we'll likely move to a Swedish style strategy. Maybe encourage people to continue wfh as much as possible.

And schools to be open as usual.

I think things are not likely to get back to normal in September. R values are on the rise and now averaging above 1 in NW England. We should have kept lockdown as it was until track and trace was working properly.

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/coronavirus-r-number-north-west-18370083

Yes it is a depressing thought but forcing women out of the workforce will have less impact nationally than lots of men becoming unemployed. Obviously on a household basis its quite devastating . High unemployment makes the economy look as if its doing badly and then people stop spending, investing and there's a big down turn. If things can be kept looking reasonable then the down turn isn't as bad. The lead up to brexit was an example of this.
The government have thrown care home residents to the lions in the name of herd immunity so I think they are quite capable of throwing women to the lions as well. Lots of women have part time jobs and if they have to leave one job when schooling and childcare returns they will get another even if its a much lower level. Women already are
disadvantaged in the workplace once they have children.