Bit of forward planning for Covid vaccine.....

[waltzingparrot]

How long do you think it will take to vaccinate 67 million people?

IF there is ever a vaccine it will take ages to vax everyone.
They'll start with NHS workers and care staff and other key workers.
The young fit and healthy will be at the bottom of the list and god forbid it only lasts 12 months.

I’ve just read on Twitter Brazil have signed off to test the Oxford vaccine there. This is the second stage I believe. 2000 people are being vaccinated presumably because there is far more infection in the community compare to the UK.

My friends hubby works for AstraZeneca & they are getting ready to start manufacture of the Oxford Vaccine.. there’s a LOT of forwards planning for this vaccine as so much is riding on it. Will it take that long to vaccinate everyone? I mean, it’ll take a while but not that long. I get a flu vaccine every year and takes 3 minutes max. Sometimes I get it at my GP’s and sometimes I get it at work as they provide if for free as well. If they can distribute enough out to work places, GP’s, hospitals, care homes & pharmacists. Maybe set up temporary vaccine hubs in the drive through test centres already there.. that kinda thing! Stick your arm out the window and off you go! You could get my entire office done in a day, as above we do so every year with the flu jab. About 50% of staff take up the flu jab offer & the nurse is done by lunch time.

I think the main issues is getting 67 million doses of vaccine made!

Fab news about Brazil. I think it’ll give them some of the answers they need, be it good or bad news.

I’d have thought it could be done quicker than you think. Army could set up temporary vaccine clinics, schools, pharmacies, work places, have vaccine stations set up at all routine hospital and gp appointments to catch people in the waiting room.

If you only vaccinated everyone in care homes and all care home staff you would reduce the number of deaths hugely.

Plus not everyone would have the vaccine.

They might be able to provide a vaccine by tablet and post it to everyone

I think we do about 20 million flu vaccinations each year between October and February.

At my surgery, they run two Saturday clinics and do everyone who is eligible. So if they ran that system for six weeks they could probably do everyone in the practice who wanted it.

Did I read somewhere that Astra Zeneca said they could make a billion doses? There will probably be more than one vaccine in time.

I believe Astra Zeneca are planning to have 30 million doses available for use in September (assuming all goes to plan) which I would have thought should be sufficient to vaccinate the vast majority of the most vulnerable/at risk individuals.

If we have a vaccine I think they’ll throw everything at distribution. If (big if) it works and 30m doses are really ready by September I think we could have that 30m done well before Christmas. If that means mass drive ins, requisitioning refrigerated transport, deploying vets or dentists or sending in the army then so be it. Get people to inject themselves if necessary!

I agree. I’d inject myself if it meant getting things moving!

From the last update I heard it was increased to 40million doses by September and 100 million by the end of the year. Hopefully the following 60million will be very soon after the first batch.

Also, at the moment they are planning on people on just having the 1 dose, but trials may show that people or at least some people such as the elderly may require 2 doses.

I agree above, a lot of work will go into creating and utilising spaces to vaccinate people very quickly. I can see them opening up GP surgeries at weekends/late evenings, children will have theirs at school, NHS workers will have theirs at work, as well as other environments being opened up. A lot of work places have in-house occupational health services with nurses and health care assistants who can come in and vaccinate their workers.

If it works you won't need to vaccinate everyone. Like the flu jab you can give it to vulnerable groups, older people, NHS staff etc.
Then let the virus circulate amongst the younger fit people who dont really get ill and it will eventually fizzle out.

I think the problem would be that the sensible thing would be to vaccinate the at risk and not worry about the rest. We do not routinely vaccinate for chicken pox in this country yet it kills per year as covid. Children are actually currently considered a danger because they may spread to the vulnerable not because they themselves are vulnerable but I do not think that is the message the country has heard.

Just worrying about the vulnerable is the approach taken with flu, vaccinate the vulnerable and others will either not get or not be sick enough to worry about but it’s going to be difficult to “sell” this as an approach to covid. A lot have stayed at home actually to protect others but to achieve this were told it was to protect themselves so I think the logical approach (just vaccinate those at risk so everyone over 60 and with underlying health conditions) will not work as you would have to undo the fear,

Those 60+ and with health conditions would be about 17 million
(that's those eligible for flu, minus the kids)
They'd be done asap and shouldn't take that long, as all resources will be thrown at it.

Almost zero risk of COVID for those under 20, so they'd be vaccinated last and only to keep up herd immunity

So if AstraZeneca can make 30 million doses, how many of those go to UK patients?

Should non-vulnerable people in richer countries be vaccinated before vulnerable people in other countries?

It's the world that needs to be vaccinated, not the UK, and that's going to slow things down a shade.

So if AstraZeneca can make 30 million doses, how many of those go to UK patients?

The 30 million doses is for the UK, by September, with another 70 million coming after that.

AstraZeneca has plants all over the globe which will be simultaneously producing a heck of a lot more for other parts of the world, including poorer countries.

Why vaccinate children and anyone under 20?

There are over 100 companies working on a vaccine worldwide, and we need many of them to work to provide global supply. My company are already scaling up manufacturing at risk as it will take such a long time to produce.

I agree @Alex50. I don't think they will try and vaccinate everyone. I can see a schedule that doesn't include under 40's without underlying health conditions, especially if, as early trials have indicated, the vaccine reduces the severity of the virus rather than entirely preventing transmission.

It will depend on what the ultimate aim is. Initially it may be to prevent severe illness and death in which case only vaccinating those deemed at risk may well suffice.

If the aim to try and eradicate the virus entirely (as we did with smallpox) then I suspect population wide vaccination would be necessary on a global scale.

The former could be achieved reasonably quickly I hope, the latter will obviously take longer.

Astra Zeneca now promising 2 billion doses

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-52917118

Thanks for all the replies. I do love a positive, can do attitude and if we get a working vaccine, throwing everything behind its distribution would be something we could get right.

I've came across a few news paper articles saying that the Oxford vaccine could be ready in the form of an inhaler next month. They are referencing Professor Hill and an online lecture he gave. I don't recall hearing this in the recent webinar and can't find any other lectures he has given. It would be interesting if this is the true.

@Char2015

Yes I read that this morning. I remember him talking about using an inhaler to administer the vaccine but I understood it to be something that would take longer than a traditional vaccine from what he said due to it being more difficult to produce? I’m also not sure how it could be available next month when the efficacy trials haven’t been completed? Confusing!

It’s great they can produce so many by September and the ideas for how to administer in mass are great too. I’m not an anti vaccination person, I and my children have had all vaccinations at the “correct” time but, and sorry for sounding ignorant how can science prove this vaccine works in the long term ie it will still offer protection in say 6,12 months time? it wouldn’t have been around for that long and what about side effects/risks that may show up later?