Bit of forward planning for Covid vaccine.....

[waltzingparrot]

How long do you think it will take to vaccinate 67 million people?

[conveniencestore]

OK, but who decides that I or my family am less worthy of a vaccine than someone else. The EU purchased 300 million vaccines. I assume these are hypothetical vaccines, since testing isn't complete yet.
Obviously the vulnerable should be first in line, but plenty of younger people without other conditions can develop symptoms with long-lasting health repercussions, occasionally death.
Also herd immunity is achieved above 80%, so why not vaccinate 80%.
It isn't a matter of GDP. The UK has protected its citizens far less well than poorer countries in Europe and around the world by not buying PPE in sufficient volumes, not buying test kits in sufficient volumes. I just hope this will not be the same.

[Sunshinegirl82]

@conveniencestore

They have ordered 100 million doses so everyone can be vaccinated. The 40 million is only the first batch to be ready hopefully in September.

[conveniencestore]

@Sunshinegirl82: Ah OK. Hopefully 30 million is not the correct figure (my last post was to @feelingverylazytoday)
And hopefully the vaccine works. I worry about the low numbers of positive antibody test results from people who had been confirmed to have COVID-19.

[ragged]

3:4 odds any vaccine delivered in September 2020 won't protect at least 60% of recipients for at least 1 year.

[Sunshinegirl82]

Optimistic sort eh? Let’s wait and see, nothing is guaranteed. Any reduction would make a massive difference.

[feelingverylazytoday]

I worry about the low numbers of positive antibody tests from people who have been confirmed to have COVID-19
Don't worry, there's such a thing as inate immunity which means that some people are able to clear the virus without producing antibodies.
The UK has protected it's citizens far less well than poorer countries in Europe
The UK government has heavily invested in research into vaccines, repurposing of existing drugs, and new treatments.
Your family and yourself aren't more important than anyone else when it comes to benefitting from this research.

[jasjas1973]

Many countries have ordered the AZ vaccine BUT have also ordered vaccines from other programs too (in case the AZ doesn't work etc)

I wonder if the UK has also ordered from say Curevac or Sanofi etc? or is just relying on one program.

[Blackbear19]

I'm sure the vaccine could be delivered very very quickly via pharmacists rather than GP practices.

Given the unpredictability of Covid19 and no real understanding of long term effects I suspect they will want to vaccinate everyone.

[Isthisfinallyit]

During the swine flu epidemic they vaccinated quite quickly. First they did everyone who works with patients, then the vulnerable people. It needed two doses 3 weeks apart and was rolled out very quickly. We had doctors and nurses who voluntarily started at 5 AM and went through till 7 PM so that they could vaccinate 3 shifts. I think we vaccinated those groups in 2-2,5 months? With one dose it can be quicker if we make the same effort.

With flu vaccine you are not protected the second you have the vaccine, it takes about two weeks before you are. So after vaccination we probably can't immediately stop distancing.

[alreadytaken]

There may be more than one UK vaccine. The Imperial vaccine can be produced in many labs quite easily, so scaling up production would be simpler. www.imperial.ac.uk/news/198314/imperial-begin-first-human-trials-covid19/

Vacines are probably going to need to be repeated each year and the one you could be offered this year may not be the one offered next year.

[Char2015]

One of the leads for the Oxford vaccine is just about to talk live now. If you are interested, it can be viewed here:

[Char2015]

So we should have phase I data published in about a month. This will only be regards to safety and immune responses.

Once they hit 30 people within the trial infected with covid-19, they will then look at the data to see overall if it works.

[LastTrainEast]

Let's leave those who whined that a vaccine will never exist until last. Some of them have now changed their tune to "ok there's a vaccine, but it will probably not protect everyone"

I'm willing to take the chance that they might catch it while they are waiting their turn.

[okiedokieme]

If it shows even partial immunity they will roll it out very quickly, 2-3 months for the whole country. Personally I'm putting myself at the back of the queue as (a) I've had c19 symptoms and (b) I like my medicines to be tried and tested. I personally want an antibody test and if I have them I'll skip the vaccine

[LemonTT]

The problem with rolling out the COVID vaccination programme before April 2020 will be that NHS and pharmacy fridges may well be packed fill of flu vaccine for at least part of his time. Added to which local storage capacity is for the at risk Groups not the whole population

[ListeningQuietly]

A vaccine against this Corona Virus will not protect against the next one.
So relying on a vaccine
rather than

• hygeine
• test and trace
• PPE

to protect us going forward is pretty pointless.

Please look up the number of COVID deaths in your area to assess the true risk
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19interactivemap/2020-06-12

[Sunshinegirl82]

We need a vaccine, treatments AND better preparation for a future pandemic. All the PPE in the world won’t allow “normal” life to resume but a vaccine certainly has the potential to.

[IcedPurple]

A vaccine against this Corona Virus will not protect against the next one

Well no.

But if it protects at least some people against THIS virus - which is its purpose - that would be a very good thing, wouldn't it?

I agree with a PP. The Debbie Downers have shifted their line from 'there wont' be a virus' to 'there may be a virus but it won't work' with lightning speed. As was predicted.

[Sunshinegirl82]

Yeah, some people are weird about the vaccine! I can’t work out why, it’s almost as though they don’t want a vaccine too soon or at all in some cases. Maybe it’s a self preservation thing? They don’t want to have too much hope!

[ListeningQuietly]

Iced
I have a smallpox vaccine scar on my arm, just above my BCG scar.
I think vaccines are amazing
BUT
anybody expecting a lifelong one for a Coronavirus is kidding themselves and others.

The Flu vaccine has to be re issued every year
and when the vaccine and the strain do not match up, as was the case in 2014/15 37,000 people in the UK die of flu in one winter

COVID is new, but its nothing special in the big scheme of things.

Infection control will protect us from the next possibly much more virulent one much better

[Ceara]

A vaccine against this Corona Virus will not protect against the next one
A vaccine against this year's prevailing flu strain won't protect against next year's, but we still have a vaccination programme.
I am very happy to settle for a decent chance of a year's protection from this particular coronavirus (assuming we get a vaccine that delivers that).
Track and trace working properly in parallel would be good too, though.

[ListeningQuietly]

Track and trace working properly in parallel would be good too, though.
December for that in the UK .....

When everybody else had it in March

[Sunshinegirl82]

I think most people who have taken an interest in the vaccine appreciate it’s unlikely the first vaccines produced will provide life long immunity. An annual vaccine right now would be more than good enough!

I’d expect second generation vaccines to improve on the first attempts. Life long immunity may be achievable but perhaps not this year or next. We don’t need perfection, good enough will do for now.

How do we prevent/reduce the risk of further pandemics is an entirely different question with an entirely different answer.

[IcedPurple]

anybody expecting a lifelong one for a Coronavirus is kidding themselves and others

Strawman argument, since nobody here has claimed it would. Plus, rather patronising of you to act as though you know better.

If a vaccine provides only short-term immunity that would be a very good thing. Or at least it would be for most people, but there are so many on MN who are desperate to pour cold water on any hint of good news.

[ListeningQuietly]

I am pouring cold water over the hopes that a vaccine obviates the need for the hard work of hygiene control

same as Climate change will be controlled by hard work and significant changes
not quick fixes

Diseases like COVID arise from the shocking destruction and plundering of the planets resources.
They spread because people consider air travel more important than health control
and people still do not wash their hands after having a piss
or before eating

A vaccine that lets us go back to normal is not a good outcome