When will people be happy to start living with the risk of catching Coronavirus?

[wakeupitsabeautifulmorning]

Considering there possibly won't be a vaccination for quite some time, if at all, but things are going to have to start returning to normal for the sake of everything else - economy, education, other health issues etc. There is currently so much opposition to easing out of lockdown, people will have to get back to work and schools cannot be part time for years (childcare issues plus the massive impact on disadvantaged dc, plus the dc not engaging in home learning). Spoke to a few people today who are horrified at the thought of a return to normal as they are frightened of catching the virus. I was a bit surprised a they were under 35 with dc (no known health problems). It's like they think it's just going to miraculously vanish.

I am now, and both DH and I are in at risk groups. We've got youth on our side, and happy to take our chances.

Now/ about a month ago!

@FlamedToACrisp

You can definitely take your DH for a drive for a change of scene, you don't have to be getting out to exercise. I don't think, but whatever the details...you can do this. No problem.

Over 2% of people catching this virus require hospitalisation. If we just go back to normal, there is nothing that we know of that will stop this virus racing through at least 60% of the population. Very approximately, this would mean somewhere in the region of 1 million people requiring hospitalisation over the next year or so. Currently, the death rate is somewhere around 0.5 to 1%. Again, looking at the "we all have to catch this sometime" scenario, this would mean a good couple of hundred thousand extra deaths.

So - 1 million people in hospital and if we can cope with that number, 200,000 dead. If we can't cope with that number, the death statistics could be much higher. We have had 50,000 deaths and only 7% or so of the population has had the virus, so these figures are not scaremongering, they are a reasonable projection. Yes, something may happen to mitigate these figures, but there is no good evidence to suggest that it will.

These figures are why we went into lockdown. This is the scenario we are risking when people are suggesting going back to "normal".

The alternative to "end all lockdown immediately" does not have to be "lockdown forever". It should be a gradual, scaled easing, so that we can see the effect of removing individual measures and see which ones we can cope with. It should be with a functional track and trace program. Basically, it should be with all the things our government says it is doing, but is actually failing miserably at. However, I still hold out hope that they will get their shit together -eventually-. I just think we should hold off on big risks until we are actually in a position like Germany or Spain, and not just copying them with vaguely similar actions like a trained monkey.

So, does anyone think we are in the same position as Germany or Spain yet?
Does anyone think our track and trace is ready yet?
If not, does anyone think we can cope with a potential million hospitalisations?
And if you do, does anyone think that coping with it would be "normal" in any way, shape or form?

"I don't understand what you are trying to say."

I'm not happy about compulsory face covers (is that part of Lockdown "easing" ?), playgrounds closed, people jumping out of each other's way like we might have Ebola, my kids out of education and uncertain when/if they will get on the training/Uni courses or when they might have any F2F teaching again, teachers talking about routinely needing PPE, mountains of PPE rubbish to be honest, me having no salary, my employer facing bankruptcy, one-way systems in buildings, weird rules in shops, swimming pools being closed. I'm worried about millions of people (esp young people) not having jobs, the young having to carry huge tax burdens while living long term with under funded social services.

So, how do I just let go of all that and say "Fine."

fwiw, I can actually handle no mass gatherings, no entertainment in front of live audiences (no Olympics). I can skip all haircuts, parties, pub, cafe or restaurant visits for a few years, but would like all that available to others for the jobs they offer (& folk can have weddings or wakes). Foreign travel requiring quarantines means not seeing my dad for years but I can take that too. I'll accept trace & track including apps on my phone. Heck I'll even keep volunteering working at home for a long time to come, if only my kids could just get F2F education & training 190 days/yr .

Well I'm happy with that, it isnt going to be 1 million people in hospital at the same time and noone knows if there is immunity to the virus anyway nor do we know how many people have already had it so projections wont be 100% accurate.

But you break thay down into the garden groups it's likely that highest death rate will be obviously the elderly so they can continue to shield whilst rest of us go back to normal

Now.

When there are effective treatments.
Lives are more important than money.

Now. Happy to go back entirely to normal, with some extra protections for those in care homes or hospitals.

How about now? We need to get back to living our lives, educating our children and rebuilding our economy. Problem is that the people most affected are the elderly and they vote. CHildren don't.

I think schools should open fully from September, as long as a) parents who choose not to send their DC back (unless medical) understand teachers will not be providing remote learning and b) social distancing and face masks are no longer required anywhere by the public, whether schools, shops, public transport etc

Yes, I completely agree.

Now. To be honest I aLways felt this way.

So, you're fine with a million people requiring hospitalisation? Just so long as the all spread themselves out evenly?

Well, they won't. They will come in a massive tsunami if we just let this thing rip.

Still fine with it?

This kind of magical thinking really annoys me. I'm sick of lockdown, so I am going to pretend that every government in the world was completely over reacting and that we can just get on with it and it really won't be that bad.

I'll personally be happy to live with the risk of catching corona virus when the following are true:

• Cases are low enough to make it unlikely
• I have confidence that the government can identify and deal with new clusters

I don't think those two are impossible goals. Most other countries in Europe have achieved them. Why can't we?

@LavenderLilacTree "Lives are more important than money."

Interesting. Have you ever been so broke, living on benefits, hand to mouth thinking how will you feed yourself today, drowning in debt; avoiding calls from banks/credit card companies/unities companies because they're chasing money from you, never sleeping properly because your stomach is wrenching with anxiety about money? There was a time I was close to choosing death because I lost my livelihood.

As soon as possible. I feel like I've just spent the last 3 months waiting for life to resume. I know for some people the easing seems too quick. For me it seems quite slow. I mean we can meet a few people outside and go to Primark again... yay? It's better than nothing and I'm happy that employers in retail can get their jobs back. But 90% of what made me happy is no longer 'allowed.' I have a 0.05% chance of dying of this. If I had a 10% chance of dying I'd probably think differently. People who don't wish to take the risk of going in shops or pubs don't have to. The way we're going it feels like life might not get back to a semblance of normality for another 3 months. 6 months is a very, very long time to tank the economy, go without a job/education and minimal physical/social interaction.

I am happy to personally catch it, but I've always been working and I would only get SSP if/when I am ill which is really annoying as so many people are on government furlough money and don't have to work for the moment.
I would feel it was a double blow, so I'm hoping I won't get it!

Considering our death rate yesterday equaled the combined total of 27 other European countries - not yet for me! Some things can’t be rushed... Those countries that have been stricter about lockdown have got on top of the virus more quickly. Ultimately their economies will recover more quickly as a result. Our farcical efforts have resulted in 50,000 deaths and we’re still not out of the woods yet. We may need to live with it but only once it’s under control like it is else where. I’d feel much happier living with it with deaths in single figures rather than the hundreds.

The vast majority of those requiring hospitalisation would be those who you could identify as clinically vulnerable. Those people could still shield, and in fact with the rest of the economy up and running we could have a bit more money to improve the shielding framework and innovate a bit more for how those people could enjoy some social contact (physical bubbles as they have in some Scandi care homes, targeted testing for planned visitors, development of some COVID free leisure events etc).

I'm not - I'm 53, verging on fat with underlying health conditions. I lead a very full life normally, job,gym, pub restraints, nights out with friends, I'm fit and strong but if I catch this I'm not going to do very well with it!

I also know 7 people who have died from Covid, Including one of my oldest closest friends,

THAT DOESN't mean I'm not happy for other people to get out there & get on with it if that's what they want to do but I'm quite happy where I am for now!

At home, working, with my husband, with a garden - I realise I'm in a very privileged position but I can hang on for a vaccine or for the worst of this to pass.

I'm ready now, however I don't have anyone at statistical risk in my family, and I don't know anyone who has either had it or died from it. Other people who don't share those circumstances will of course feel differently.

I also think we won't have our normal for a long while, and I'm more than happy with that I don't want to forget the virus is out there, social distancing needs to be adhered to as much as is physically possible still

I'm happy to take the risk now - to be honest, I'd have been to do so throughout. However, I appreciate others may take a different view based on their own circumstances.

lljkk

I do sympathise. I really hope things go well with your employer and that your dc can access education soon. I wish I had anything helpful to say, but re your original question of coping with attitudes, I am also not sure.

How do you shield people in care homes? How do you shield people in hospitals? How do you shield people with disabilities who need daily care?

You don't.

This is just more magical thinking - despite over 2% being hospitalised so far in this pandemic, if we just pretend it's not happening, this figure will go down.

@LavenderLilacTree

When there are effective treatments. Lives are more important than money.

Do you think the NHS runs on fresh air then?

I was happy to just carry on as normal way back in March when all of this nonsense started. We're all going to die one day. It's either going to be coronavirus, a bus or old age. You can't spend all your time panicking about what might happen. The human race has managed to survive through a hell of a lot worse than this.