Herd immunity

[pancakeloverrr]

I want to know what other mumsnetters think:

Are we all eventually supposed to get covid? Is that the plan? That eventually everyone must get it?

Just wondering what your opinion is regarding the pandemic.

I understand the ongoing support for lockdown to an extent and I wasn’t against lockdown nor do I believe we should rush to end it but we do need to recognise that lockdown is not benign. It causes damage of its own.

If the only goal we had was to stop people dying from COVID then long term lockdown might be an option but if you are looking to minimise all harm (including deaths from all causes) then there is a balance to be struck.

Didn't realise how many people would regard "allow people to die until we reach a point of temporary herd immunity" as a successful management strategy! We don't have a vaccine but we do have quarantine (doesn't have to be full lockdown) in the form of test, trace, isolate, a time-honored strategy.

I cannot understand why so many people are saying "we just have to learn to live with it and hope for herd immunity" instead of "where the fuck is the testing and tracing capacity our government promised us a while ago and has weirdly stopped talking about now while they distract us with other minor political scuffles".

I think this government are a shower of shit but they did announce today that test and trace would commence from tomorrow.

This is interesting

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/27/french-team-finds-mild-coronavirus-infection-does-lead-to-antibodies

Didn't realise how many people would regard "allow people to die until we reach a point of temporary herd immunity" as a successful management strategy! We don't have a vaccine but we do have quarantine (doesn't have to be full lockdown) in the form of test, trace, isolate, a time-honored strategy.

Absolutely. We've got people supporting an approach that would have been dismissed as ridiculous even based on the limited scientific knowledge of 100 years ago - never mind today's. It's baffling!

This virus poses a particular problem in that it doesn’t always let itself be known via symptoms.

Has any country managed to control it without an infringement on privacy (to our eyes anyway) or early and heavy lockdown?

Japan?

The Government plans appear to be to try and keep R below 1 (see graphs at press conferences). If R is below 1, infections fall and we don’t get herd immunity naturally.

So unless the Government are lying and are secretly planning to propagate an eugenics programme (and I know some who will always be convinced that the Tories have the very worst possible intentions!) there is no herd immunity plan prior to a vaccine.

I think this government are a shower of shit but they did announce today that test and trace would commence from tomorrow

Really? so i've been bad & popping round to some friends houses or taken a busy tube from Harrow to Euston.... how or would i want, to tell anyone who i have been in contact with?
A recent trial showed only around 1/3rd were able to self isolate, the rest couldn't because of low/no sick pay and employer issues.

There is also zero powers of new legal enforcement.

I do hope that recent events haven't damaged the public health message.

Whether you believe the test and trace programme will work or be effective is another matter. A pp said they had stopped talking about test and trace. Today they have announced the programme will start tomorrow.

If you test positive you will be contacted and your contacts traced and told to isolate. You are right that some people will not comply. Lots will however. We will have to wait and see if it’s enough in combination with the other ongoing social distancing measures.

I’d suggest that those who refuse to comply with the test and trace requirements are also those most likely to break the lockdown rules and there is little enforcement there either.

There needs to be total trust in this new system and i think Johnson has sunk that boat now.

Possibly. I think DC should go because he is awful and always has been. It will no doubt push some people to break the rules but I still think a lot of people are able to understand that just because DC was a bit of a dick, it doesn’t mean we can all just forget the guidance. Anyway, time will tell.