Herd immunity

[pancakeloverrr]

I want to know what other mumsnetters think:

Are we all eventually supposed to get covid? Is that the plan? That eventually everyone must get it?

Just wondering what your opinion is regarding the pandemic.

I think the length of immunity is dependent on how severely you contact the virus. Older people and men who get it badly and then recover will produce more antibodies than those with a mild case.
news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-nhs-doctor-revealed-as-antibody-super-donor-after-covid-19-recovery-11994998

Wish I lived in New Zealand....

Whether there is herd immunity or not, it really isn’t clear and basing a country’s strategy on this hypothetical is risky.

Plus - I think they say that herd immunity is only applicable IF there is a vaccine.

I thought it was the case that patients tested positive twice but not they think that is just because some of the virus remained rather than they contracted coronavirus for the second time?

It’s such a new virus so we cannot explicitly say ‘immunity only last 6 months’. The problem is we can’t say either way as nobody has had the virus say one year ago to do the tests.

I do think some level of immunity in the population will help with spread even if this immunity is short lived. New Zealand, whilst their response has been impressive are banking on a vaccine or the borders remain closed?

Sweden is the one to watch. Risky strategy but will it pay off long term.. Their health service is not overwhelmed and although their economy has taken a bit of a bit it won’t be as bad as the hot ours has taken or will take.. They’ve also avoided all the other long term negative impacts, mentally, socially etc that lockdown entails.

‘that previous infected CV patients have had a second illness.‘

The South Korean researchers who said that decided it was more likely to be testing error (false negative in between positives iirc).

Your point stands that there’s still a lot we don’t know about covid immunity, though.

Please can you show any data where anyone has been ill a second time with coronvirus, I can’t find any? Yes I agree you may only have antibodies for 6 months but it is not fact yet, it maybe in 6 months time.

New Zealand, whilst their response has been impressive are banking on a vaccine or the borders remain closed?

Everyone is banking on a vaccine, ultimately. All this talk of “natural herd immunity” is nice, but tell me what disease in history has been successfully managed via “natural herd immunity”? I’ll wait.

“Natural herd immunity” is just a nice way of saying “traumatic death rates for old, vulnerable and poor people”.

Absolutely antisocialdistance. Doesn't sound so great if you put it like that, does it?

Just don't see how natural herd immunity could ever happen, even Spanish flu only infected around 25% of the worlds population.

Vaccination can reach almost everyone and normally doesn't involve killing off the most vulnerable.

On reinfection, WHO say its unproven and the cases where it has allegedly happened, it hasn't yet been proved either way, the theory is that those who have had a very mild infection don't have much in the way of immunity, which is why they have not approved CV "passports"

There was some research done on this but it was mostly based on the corona viruses that cause colds www.columbia.edu/~jls106/galanti_shaman_ms_supp.pdf

I can't link to the doucument above but if you go here: there is a link in the article to the above pdf file www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long-are-people-immune-to-covid-19/

The summary says

This study provides evidence that re-infections with the same endemic coronavirus are not atypical in a time window shorter than 1 year and that the genetic basis of innate immune response may be a greater determinant of infection severity than immune memory acquired after a previous infection.

It is a tiny study though and a good example of not saying immunity only lasts 6 months. The summary is a hypothesis not a conclusion.
The truth is we don't know yet

antisocialdistance you do realise that there was no flu vaccine after the Spanish flu? How else do you think it ended?

@feelingverylazytoday You do realise that epidemics can also end by reducing R? Vaccines and infecting the entire population aren't the only two options

Why we might not get a vaccine

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/22/why-we-might-not-get-a-coronavirus-vaccine

How do you think the human race has survived millions of years without herd immunity? Vaccines have only been around the last couple of hundred years.

@feelingverylazytoday Sure, the Spanish flu petered out eventually after killing anywhere from 1-6 percent of the world’s population in an age prior to commercial aviation. Is that the kind of result we’re looking for here?

Yep I don’t think the Spanish flu came to an end via a vaccine?

I don’t think you need the full 80% herd immunity for a virus to run it’s course.

So no reliable source, more fake news on mumsnet

Read the Guardian link I posted. It also mentions that immunity might not last long.

Alex50 There’s some people on mumsnet that love to scaremonger for some reason

Or maybe some people are not burying their heads in the sand

So how did Spanish flu end? It wasn’t with a vaccine, if it wasn’t with herd immunity I cannot see how it can be through a reduced r as they didn’t social distance particularly- certainly not on the scale being attempted now as they did have the on line, remote options to work, buy stuff, educate Etc.

From my basic understanding I thought it was thought to be herd immunity through natural infection, but accept the theory may be wrong, it def wasn’t through vaccination though.

@Alex50 As I say, “natural herd immunity” is just a nice way of saying “picking off the old, the vulnerable and the poor”. Aka the brutal and traumatic reason we were so keen to create vaccines in the first place. Amazing how some people are suddenly so blasé about seeing it in action again.

So there is herd immunity then? Yes it will kill off a % of human population but i’d say it does exist and has done for millions of years. We are not going to be able to make a vaccine for every disease and virus that comes along, FACT.

HairyToity

"I'd read coronavirus immunity usually lasts 3 - 4 years."

Link for that claim, please, which I have read precisely nowhere, despite following the science on this carefully.

Look obviously we’d all love a vaccine! But it’s not a given?

So what’s the alternative?

Herd immunity requires a vaccine.

All the scientists I have read say that we don't yet know how long immunity will last, but other coronaviruses offer only short-term immunity, hence why we keep getting colds again.

It would certainly be incredibly dangerous to base a strategy on herd immunity when such a thing may not exist beyond a few months.

The only failsafe ways for this to end are either an effective vaccine, or, probably sooner, an effective treatment or cure.

Treatments are likely to arrive sooner as unlike vaccines, existing treatments can be repurposed if found to be effective.

Herd immunity is an option only for committed eugenicists who wish to kill off all the old and vulnerable. Not something any civilised society could contemplate, I am sure we all agree.