Herd immunity

[pancakeloverrr]

I want to know what other mumsnetters think:

Are we all eventually supposed to get covid? Is that the plan? That eventually everyone must get it?

Just wondering what your opinion is regarding the pandemic.

@Flaxmeadow again the word MIGHT, no proven fact either way. All I’m saying is don’t make statements without data to back it. The media love to scare people, it’s a great way to control the population

@Delatron elimination/eradication strategies as are clearly being pursued in numerous countries with reasonable success?

"How do you think the human race has survived millions of years without herd immunity?"

They haven't

Herd immunity is they desired end state. It can be brought about by either vaccination or everyone having the disease.

That is why we tend to think (wrongly) that measles is a childhood disease. The reality is that, before vaccination, virtually everyone had it, and the herd was immune, so the odd case that cropped up never became an outbreak because enough of the herd was immune. But over time, more people were born and every few years there would be enough of them for a wave of the disease tomgo round the non-immune ie mainly the children

The quality and duration of the immunity conferred by this disease in the wild is not fully understood, and vaccines are under development and may be some time off.

So we have to learn to manage society, when there is a potentially lethal pathogen in circulation, and one which can make many people very ill for several weeks. We cannot be sure if herd immunity will be achievable (either by vaccine or by exposure to wild strain)

What choices does that leave? Loosen up (when latest estimates show anpbout 17% of urban population currently immune) and risk uncontrolled second peak? Or continue to ban the highest risk activities/contact patterns with aim of controlling peaks until we know more? And then modifying restrictions based on increased body of evidence?

I'm not being snarky but honestly don't look for opinions on Mumsnet about how a pandemic will behave. Read the information available from actual sources.

You will get both extremes here and the truth is none of us know for definite.

But there's an alarming amount of incorrect information being given as fact here.

@scaevola So the human race hasn’t survived milions of years but i’m here sitting in my garden 😂 i’ve heard it all now

@savehalloween I agree, you have to take it with a pinch of salt what you hear on mumsnet, I won’t be living my life by the advice you get on here.

We will have to move towards herd immunity with a vaccine or not, there’s no other way. There will always be some people who don’t develop immunity (we see that in many other diseases eg chicken pox) from vaccines or disease and some who it will be too vulnerable to get it. That’s why we need the herd with immunity who don’t get it - to stop it spreading.

The vast majority of studies show people developing immunity in the usual way - I would ignore scaremongering. Also how would we only know if immunity lasts for 6 months- we haven’t even had the virus that long in Europe.

Look obviously we’d all love a vaccine! But it’s not a given?

So what’s the alternative

Rolling lockdowns
Strict lockdown, light lockdown and repeat. Which is what most governments are starting now and have always intended to do. Nothing else can be done ATM

There is no guaranteed immunity. If antibodies just disappear from our system after a few months, then obviously a vaccine would not work.

Surely our definition of a successful pandemic response is not “Did humanity avoid extinction?” but “Were as many needless deaths as possible prevented?”

@Flaxmeadow again the word MIGHT, no proven fact either way. All I’m saying is don’t make statements without data to back it. The media love to scare people, it’s a great way to control the population

Have you read the article I posted?

That is what has been happening for millions of years whether we like it or not. Human beings will not find a cure for every illness i’m afraid.

@effingterrified - what you are saying makes no sense. A vaccine wouldn’t make any difference if we don’t develop long term immunity.

Herd immunity is a bit of a british invention. The most of the rest of the world is banking on as much social distancing as practically possible where necessary and put a lot of money into vaccine research.

@antisocialdistance you can eradicate a virus in your own country but if it’s not eradicated in the whole world the minute you open your borders you will get cases again? Therefore the strategy isn’t successful. Unless I’ve missed something?

We don’t need a cure... in the absence of a vaccine the long-standing “test, trace, isolate” strategy is effective in managing outbreaks if it’s implemented well.

Agree @Alex50

It’s like we’ve forgotten all the previous pandemics and diseases we’ve suffered.

It’s not eugenics. Nobody wants hundred of thousands of people to die but it’s happened before and it will happen again due to global pandemics.

Ok so let’s say there is no herd immunity (not proven yet) and no vaccine, as the article in Guardian is saying, without natural immunity existing they can’t make a vaccine, so where does that leave us?

You can open borders piecemeal to other countries who have achieved the same result. NZ and Australia already well at work on this.

The test, track and test is a great strategy if every country has the means to do it and do it well. Hmmm

Trace I mean

Herd immunity is an option only for committed eugenicists who wish to kill off all the old and vulnerable. Not something any civilised society could contemplate, I am sure we all agree.

London has a 17% antibody rate. The R in London is low and cases are low too. This suggests that there is a degree of herd immunity in the capital, even at those relatively low antibody levels. There is a theory that some young and healthy people may fight the infection using innate immunity, without mounting an antibody response. This would add to the immune population. This protects EVERYONE, including the old and the vulnerable, because it drops the R.

There is an argument for allowing low risk people to work and socialise ( with sensible precautions) , because the danger of the disease to them is very low ( in under 45s)- and arguably lower than the social, health and economic impacts of lockdown.

We should continue to shield the vulnerable and vaccinate them as a priority as soon as one's available. If that never happens, a lower R will help protect them too.

Test. Trace. Isolate. It’s the WHO-recommended strategy for suppressing epidemics and pandemics. It’s not even a new concept.

@walkingchuckydoll the UK did not invent herd immunity, nature did 😂 The only reason the human race has existed for millions of years from diseases is because of herd immunity.

Yep it would have been great if we followed that strategy it is the most effective way to deal with the virus I agree. But we didn’t and neither did many countries. You can’t turn back time.

Also colds are caused by a variety of viruses many of which are unidentified. It’s just a generic name for an illness caused by a number of viruses. That’s why we get them again and again not because We don’t develop immunity