Why has london had so few cases recently?

[yearinyearout]

What's going on here? The other day only 24 new cases, then 19, then none. I've read the news and it's not making sense to me, unless loads of people have had it and created some kind of herd immunity why is this so low?

Well yes. On the other hand, the virus had spread everywhere on the ship before it was recognised as a problem. I know it's a phrase that's done to death, but cruise ships are described as floating petri dishes.

It’s burned through the households and work places of the those who are key workers and still using public transport? Could it be these people are the 17% who now have antibodies.
Now that more are back at work it will be interesting to see if cases spike, as people who have been previously at home and hence safe.

I mean - I know 17% isn’t enough for herd immunity but maybe it is if only roughly 17% of people are out and about working, and the rest are staying at home l.

It spiked here at the beginning of April.
Lockdown having come late, and Covid having reached France by December, it is reasonable to assume that it was here from January.
In addition, whilst of course there are pockets of terrible deprivation, London is full of the wealthy and healthy, a lot of whom would have gone skiing, or elsewhere on planes, in February, and are exactly the cohort who would be asymptomatic or only mildly affected. Tubes etc to work and school for the 12 or so weeks before lockdown and a lot of very busy, very social lives, and it must have burned through most of us without us realising.

Doesn’t look like there will be a spike. VE Day was nearly two weeks ago.

We're having a spike here - staff at our local hospital have said the number of Covid-19 admissions have gone up again....

@TerrapinStation

See my recent post above - lots of unsocial distancing round here on 08/05 followed by an increase this week in Covid-19 admissions

Well yes. On the other hand, the virus had spread everywhere on the ship before it was recognised as a problem. I know it's a phrase that's done to death, but cruise ships are described as floating petri dishes.

Yes, it was certainly widespread on the ship, but whereas there is plenty of opportunity for close contact, at the same time it’s not being in a tube carriage in rush hour. And i believe the time between the infected person coming aboard and and the quarantining to cabins was 14 days... I would be surprised if everyone had been infected in that time.

It’s burned through the households and work places of the those who are key workers and still using public transport? Could it be these people are the 17% who now have antibodies.

That’s my theory.... The 17% is very likely to be disproportionately key workers, not all of them, but perhaps enough for some herd immunity in the group. Those who’ve been able to isolate will be much less infected.

But there are studies showing that the virus person can spread round a whole restaurant in one evening originating from one person.

I'm not arguing, as I don't know enough about it. I'm just discussing.

My little brother was randomly selected this week for an Antibody test he's 5 my mum posted it off today. Will be interesting to see as they were Ill in March and ended up with conjunctivitis after and tonsillitis which I've read is common after you recover from the virus

We think we all had it in December December.

Dd was working just before lockdown. (Not a key worker but she comes into contact with hundreds of people each day)

Every member of staff and nearly all the people who were in the building on this particular day have all come down with Covid19 except Dd so interested to see when antibody tests come out whether we as a family have immunity and Dd not getting anything when all around her was the infection was down to immunity and not luck

Nothing strange, we are over the peak and its in its way out? Why would you like there to be more?

From what I hear of family in NE, where I am in London is taking it all a lot more seriously. I'd say 70% are wearing masks around me, buses have put measures in place. Everyone is social distancing.

Where I'm from everyone is chilling drinking at the beach without a care in the world! 🙄

Because everyone with Covid 19 who lives in London has taken their camper vans to the seaside to spread their generosity about

Most offices, shops and all restaraunts, pubs, theatres etc are still closed. The increase in people using public transport since last week means that the infection rates will probably increase in the next few weeks. Incubation for the virus can be up to 14 days . There are also many young people late teens/20s in London and they tend to have either no symptoms or mild and may not be being tested. Just because these young people have not had symptoms doesn't mean they are at this moment spreading the virus to the older population. ....30s, 40s 50s who use public transport to get to work.

Lots of had it and lots have it and arent being tested

I think you're right @Blownaway1

pockets of terrible deprivation, London is full of the wealthy and healthy, a lot of whom would have gone
Really healthy...thats why more Covid deaths in London than anywhere else in the UK. Way more. The deprivation is much more than 'pockets'. As confirmed by the ONS Covid death rate figures. Reported as affecting the UK's most deprived areas. The top ten being London boroughs.

The wealthy and healthy might be all other people outside London see but they don't represent the majority. Particularly given many of the wealthiest don't even live there full-time. London is their second (or third) home. Their main home is elsewhere. Just as it is for most of the MPs.

It's a combination of having peaked a couple of weeks before other areas of the country and 20% of people living in London already having had the virus.

Offices, bars, restaurants, entertainment venues all shut. A number of people originally from other places went to isolate with their families in either other countries or other parts of the country. London is a couple of weeks ahead of the rest of the country

Do you have a link for that Toffee? The only ONS stats I can find are age standardised, and I’m on my phone so can’t use the raw data.

I believe it's because London is weeks ahead of the rest of UK with the infection and that's why they are now at lower numbers, we will soon follow. They were one of the first places with high numbers.

Maybe they’ve all had it

A lot of people with symptoms arent being tested or aren't able to get to a testing centre safely. Many are simply being reported as 'suspected Covid 19' untested and so won't feature in the official statistics

Agree - the peak was earlier in London, also where there's money people can afford to stop work, stay in, get food from deliveries and sit in their gardens - the pockets of London which are the most affluent have the least cases. LBCamden hasn't had a single confirmed case for 2 weeks.

I thought that there was a possibility that the tests gave false negatives by about 30%
If we assume 30% more people have had Covid added to the 17% who actually did test positive that could mean that 47% have already been infected and if we only need 70% for herd immunity we are only 24% off.

The more people who have had it and have immunity the harder it gets to spread.