Why has london had so few cases recently?

[yearinyearout]

What's going on here? The other day only 24 new cases, then 19, then none. I've read the news and it's not making sense to me, unless loads of people have had it and created some kind of herd immunity why is this so low?

But infections globally seem to be rising as it passes to and through more countries. So overall, it’s a rise in cases due to a rise in spread?

I keep imagining the headlines in six months time if the Israeli professor is right!

The number of deaths from Covid in London is 5,819... but that’s only hospitalised cases with Covid tests. Assuming there are many deaths in care homes and some in the community, a reasonable estimate would be 10,000 deaths.

That’s about half the death rate in NYC. NYC antibody tests indicate about 25% have had it.... so extrapolating, that gives 10-15% for London, which is broadly in line with most estimates.

I know two people who suspect they have it. Seems very much like they have. There will be loads like that waiting for a test and once done the numbers will increase

But infections globally seem to be rising as it passes to and through more countries. So overall, it’s a rise in cases due to a rise in spread?

Yes largely, but if it is fizzling out, it’s because of suppression not because it’s somehow lost it’s potency. Unless we are able to suppress it to extinction globally, which is a forlorn hope, it will simply re-emerge once we get back to normal unless we have a vaccine.

PHE says there have been about 2 million 'people' tested as opposed to actual tests done, so that's more like 3% of the population tested then I think ?

Can’t possibly have accurate figures without testing of every resident. It’s no doubt still lurking around. Asymptomatic people won’t be asking for tests but will still spread.

I'm in London. Contrary to the popular myth, most people are not living packed in like sardines. The 9m people are spread across a huge area - I live in a leafy suburb and am about 8 miles from the centre.

Many people I know began social distancing a few weeks before we had to - stopped going to theatres, packed pubs etc, travelling into the centre. I think that may have made a difference in London. People are staying local rather than travelling. I only know of one person who has an office based job who is still travelling in to the City - others in similar roles are working from home.

In general I think most Londoners have been observing the lockdown rules. Everyone I know has, although people have started to have people round for socially distanced drinks in gardens. They're making pragmatic decisions based on risk.

I know of very few people who have had the virus since lockdown. Only one, not tested, but all the symptoms.

I know of 6 people who have taken antibody tests because they thought they had the virus. All in London. 4 thought they had it in Jan/Feb. All tested negative. The other two, who were ill in March, tested positive.

Is 3% of the population enough data for decent extrapolation ? I would think it was on the low side, but I am very much not an expert in that field ?

@janet1267 I wonder which antibody tests they used, I think some of the earlier ones didn't have very good accuracy levels ?

Frumpety I don't know which test, but 4 of them were taken by a private doctor. I'm not sure about the other two. All were tested last week.

Lots of people already had it?

Lockdown measures worked and slowed/stopped the spread?

Some scientists say it will burn itself out...others don't agree.

Is 3% of the population enough data for decent extrapolation ? I would think it was on the low side, but I am very much not an expert in that field ?

I’m not sure what you’d be extrapolating. Those presenting for testing won’t be a representative sample of the population in terms of Covid infections, but just those who’ve had symptoms that were serious enough to warrant testing.

I know of 6 people who have taken antibody tests because they thought they had the virus. All in London. 4 thought they had it in Jan/Feb. All tested negative. The other two, who were ill in March, tested positive.

I know a sample of 6 isn’t statistically significant, but it ties in with what I expected.... i.e. most people who had cold/flu/covid symptoms before March had either a type of cold or flu, not Covid. Otherwise, why did the pronounced ONS “death spike” only start in late March.

Some scientists say it will burn itself out...others don't agree.

Some people believe the earth is spherical, others believe it’s flat. Just because two sets of people have differing views doesn’t mean they are equally credible.

Many people I know began social distancing a few weeks before we had to - stopped going to theatres, packed pubs etc, travelling into the centre. I think that may have made a difference in London.

But this was the case everywhere? I'm not living in London but plenty of people here pulled children out of school weeks before lockdown and massively changed their behaviour to try and protect themselves. I'm not convinced that Londoners had some sort of special insight and sense of personal responsibility over and above anywhere else, to the extent that would explain the difference in their figures today.

The idea that the rest of the UK was blindly and ignorantly carrying on as usual just isn't true.

Live in London, work on the Tube. Everywhere has been dead quiet. Apart from a few areas, mostly people have been abiding by the advice. No tourists about, really. Museums, art galleries, everything is shut. Up to last week, many essential workers could drive without too much traffic or having to pay ULEZ and/or CC, thus lowering their risk of catching the virus on public transport. I think I might have had something like Coronavirus in November, but DH and I definitely had symptoms in late March. Not surprising, as we were both working closely with the public. More people are taking up cycling and walking, which, alongside the lower traffic levels and the lower pollution, has been a delight, as well as strengthening lungs and again, avoiding public transport has reduced risk. On the Tube we are now rolling out hand sanitiser stations, and advising people to cover their nose and mouth (however they wish to do this). I live in a borough where the local hospitals lost hundreds, and my husband who is more connected to our area than me, knew lots of acquaintances pass away. Despite the PM saying people can go back to work if it's unavoidable not to, the Tube has taken on maybe 10% extra traffic, compared with the previous week, but it's not been the car crash that was predicted. Buses do get full though, which is a shame. I hope we don't open up too quickly or some people will take the piss and because London is so populous we might get another wave.

Seasonality! Today it’s 26 in London but scraping 20 or late teens in much of the rest of the country.

Weather is reported to have an impact though not huge (a 3.1% drop in R if average temperature is over 25 is one study I saw reported) but I suspect it’s much more influential.

Hotspots tended to be cold weather at first and I thought it surprising that it took so long to get going seriously in hot-weather shantytowns (to be blunt). There still aren’t that many warm weather hotspots now. The R is lower, I’m sure.

(Going by my theory autumn and winter will be a disaster so fingers crossed I’m wrong).

@Derbygerbil good point about the extrapolating ! I think about half of the 2 million were people who were tested due to clinical need or because they were health workers, the others were essential workers and their households and other people who fit the criteria for testing.

Bloody hell, @ReturnOfTheTriffids - you hotspot sounds like one of the initial outbreaks in South Korea with the super spreaders

Strawberry raven apologies, I didn't mean to imply that people in other areas weren't doing the same sort of things as people in London. Not at all.

The idea that the rest of the UK was blindly and ignorantly carrying on as usual just isn't true.

I don't think anybody believes that StrawberryRaven, it's just that the virus arrived in London earlier - think of how many people flew into Heathrow before lockdown. All the virologists believe it spread earlier and thus peaked earlier in London.

I’m very amused by people’s ideas of what London is like. I live in a leafy suburb and have a car! Where I live is much less sardine like that friends and relatives who live in other parts of the country! None of our neighbours have been dodgy about rules, everyone very respectful in the parks.

I think a lot of had it and there’s an element of immunity

Many many of the people tested now are the key workers routinely tested (to avoid having two week isolation) so many aren’t that unwell - not like earlier where the tested were all very ill and in hospital

So transmission of those infected will be much lower

I'm glad more people are pointing out how misleading those "packed park" photos often are. If they were bird's eye views you'd be able to see the spaces, as you can if you actually walk past them, but if you take them from a distance at head-height of the people sitting on the grass, you just see a swarm of people.

And who doesn't sit 2m away from other people when they're sunbathing on the grass in a public park anyway, virus or no? Even when the distribution of direct sunlight drives people together, people don't just cram in. Londoners aren't all creepy and friendly like that.

Excellent point @QuimReaper - if a stranger was only 2m away from me in a park, I'd definitely feel like they were invading my personal space and move away social distancing or not!