Second Wave - Yes or No?

[MysticMeghan]

So the papers are now full of warnings about a "deadly second wave" but if you ditch the articles and look at the comments 99% of people don't agree. People want lockdown over, they want to get out, they want things back how they were. Look at the beaches today.

Most people I know think it's going to peter out in the next few weeks. The tabloids seem to be going with this, but then they print whatever sensationalist crap sells newspapers, it's not necessarily true. Even my own friends think that in a worst case scenario few people might have mild flu like symptoms, it's not worth going crazy over, we're all over reacting and we've stuffed the economy and everyone's businesses and jobs for nothing. Just so the government can flex its muscles and control us. Many even think it's a conspiracy.

Justification for the "overreaction" theory seems to be that the Nordic countries haven't really locked down and only a few have died. Many European countries now opening up again with few ill effects and many tourist destinations in Spain etc.now looking to have a late tourist season.

In the UK we are constantly being reminded that deaths are going DOWN. Therefore it's ok.. "It's over" seems to be the prevailing theme. McDonalds and Burger King open again, people in England allowed to travel and taking full advantage, going to the beach, the park, hanging out with their mates. Prevailing theory seems to be that the experts over reacted and got it wrong, we all self isolated for nothing and the same experts warning of a second wave just want their 5 minutes of fame. Ignore them and lock them up. Most people don't know anyone who has had it or died of it and therefore the risk is small, it's just a bit of flu and people die of flu all the time.

Or....there might be a very deadly second wave after all, this is being glimpsed in China but is being covered up. Governments and companies are desperate to re-start economies so are taking the view that if a few more die who cares, they were probably old people who would have died anyway. And young people aren't affected so just put things back the way they were and if a few oldies die then just collateral damage.Oldies can stay at home if they're worried.

Which is it? I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. It IS a deadly disease, it's being desperately underplayed now in the interests of preventing economic ruin. I certainly think the British Media is being manipulated and that's why we have one story one day and a completely different one the next.

Am I the only person in the world who thinks that pubs and restaurants re-opening and global travel re-starting for the sake of keeping a tourist industry alive is a really bad idea?

In Norway a friends child had a fever and after ringing the helpline was offered a test so I think the country is quite in control of where localised outbreaks are happening (it is easier for a small population living less densely and with a pot of oil money though!)

It was worrying that the testing of the premiership footballers showed so many positives. Stay in lockdown they fizzle out, leave lockdown then a huge potential to spread

Of course there will be a second peak.

Think it's quite likely that it will be more prolonged and won't reach the same height though. (More like a shallow upside down U than a sharp V).

I think most households continuing to social distance to some degree, more testing & tracking and it's also already ran through about 60% of care homes will lower the intensity.

Im in Scotland and sincerely hope we would also release some restrictions. Economical impacts of the lockdown will soon be worse than the virus itself.

I think we will have a second peak but am unsure when it will be. I have started to buy things that I was unable to get at the beginning of March - anti bac wipes, hand gel etc and will have a small supply for when I go back to school. Am in Wales so your guess is as good as mine!

We have to relax control measures, but maintain caution.
Governments have to maintain strict epidemiological surveillance and testing. We still have to maintain some distancing and/or use protection.
Even as they're relaxing, such countries know that their guard can't be down.
There will be new increases, which should be controlled if health authorities are alert and people don't relax too much.

But regain normal life as much as possible, with caution, if your area has reduced transmission.
With the certainty that we will need to go back to lockdown if people relax too much.

Tinfoil hat theory:
Easiest way to hide a second peak is by only testing people that have had it already and by not mass testing millions. That way if a 100 people have it and die, you only test 5, so only 5 of those 100 are on official stats.

Non tinfoil hat theory:
The virus has slowed it's spread and a second peak will happen but it will be very small compared to first peak and concentrated in care homes with a few outbreaks amongst those that haven't distanced properly. Possibility of a third minor peak after schools reopen.

Anyone clever with stats?
I would imagine that, having had such an intense first wave of infections, IF you get immunity at least for a while after, we are less at risk of a strong second wave than all the countries that locked down very early and have had a much smaller infection this time round?

I guess countries like New Zealand where there will be no immunity in the population are hoping to hold off that wave until there is more effective treatment or a vaccine.

Yes, opening pubs, clubs and restaurants are a very bad idea. And the same goes with places like soft play, zoos and farms,theme parks etc. I would like shops open like clothes shops. But keeping numbers limited. One in and one out. It's a nightmare atm . I have 4 children and all are growing and so I needed to get new clothes for pretty much all my children. Luckily, I have been able to get things in the clothing aisles in asda George. But tbh I miss going shopping and I struggle with online shopping.

I also too believe there could be a second wave or maybe even a third. The number of deaths dropped and then rocketed up again just the other day. I don't believe everyone is social distancing and sticking to the rules. I even had a man shove me and my kids while we were out food shopping.....and there were empty aisles next to us that he could have clearly walked down. Rather than literally budging into us. I've been shopping a few times and witnessed a lot of people not sticking to the rules and not going by the 2m ruling etc. ... ... ..

A lot of people are going out and mixing and socializing and this has been happening way before the lockdown rules were lessened just a week or so ago. I feel like everything could just go back up again with a second wave during the summer holidays and possibly a third towards the end of the year.

Also discovered on the weekend I am pregnant, (complete surprise before anyone bites my head off or getting pregnant during covid19) and am just hoping by the time this little one is due next year, that things really will have petered out. Just trying to stay optimistic and positive and trust in God.

At the moment, even the worst hit countries have a small % of people infected.

Some researchers have suggested that in fact 10% may be enough, but that's still conjecture at this point.

We are still at risk from superspreaders. People who shed a huge number of viruses, hardly any symptoms if at all, high mobility, poor hand-face hygiene practices and with a large number of social contacts. If transmission is not even throughout the population, it's harder to detect spreading events until there's a cluster.
That's why being transmissible before symptoms appear make this virus so difficult to control and predict.

FromEden...I read the article and have heard a few people saying that temperature/humidity can reduce transmission but South American countries are seeing a surge right now and I believe South Africa too. They presumably have high temperatures at the moment?

Nobody knows but it won't all be a normal life for a while as there will be little clusters of infection, just like in China, especially with borders reopening this summer.. I think its inevitable.

I would absolutely love a holiday but the crowds and lack of distancing does scare me, so I can't see myself going on holiday until at least Christmas when hopefully things will have calmed down slightly. But then I accept that even that might change.

About superspreaders and covid.

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all

And the same goes with places like soft play, zoos and farms,theme parks etc. I would like shops open like clothes shops. But keeping numbers limited. One in and one out. It's a nightmare atm . I have 4 children and all are growing and so I needed to get new clothes for pretty much all my children. Luckily, I have been able to get things in the clothing aisles in asda George. But tbh I miss going shopping and I struggle with online shopping

I’m not sure about this. Farms/zoos etc are generally outside. Far less transmission occurs outside.
Clothes shops to me... meh. I can order stuff online. Not essential.
Our children have been stuck at home for a couple of months. None of their usual activities. Not seeing their friends. I’d far rather be able to take them to a farm in the fresh air than queue outside a clothes shop. I don’t miss shopping.
So I goes we all have different priorities.

South American countries are seeing a surge right now and I believe South Africa too. They presumably have high temperatures at the moment?

It's their winter. Still warmer than it would be here in winter though.

Sorry not winter - autumn.

The original sars faded away and I think this will do the same.

It didn't fade away it was chased down and eradicated through case finding and isolation, contact tracing and quarantine. If we want to avoid a second wave of this virus we need to do the same.

It's unlikely we'll be able to completely eradicate it through these measures because it's already so widespread and unlike SARS people are infectious before they get symptoms, but if we get our arses in gear we should be able to contain new clusters and prevent a second wave.

Yes I understand that the Southern Hemisphere seasons are not the same as ours! My point is that the temperatures will be higher regardless of this and they are seeing a surge in cases. 26 degrees in Rio today for example and Brazil have just recorded 1000 deaths in a day.

I am happy to be corrected, but my understanding is that if the R rate of the virus is under 1, it's capable of dying out as it's not being transmitted sufficiently to reproduce. Over 1 - well, then it's a just question of maths.

There will be second peak as I don't think everywhere has reached the minus 1 stage yet. I do think we can manage this if we allow regional flexibility to set lockdown/up conditions, based on their R rate.

I would love to be proved wrong and no second peak. 50,000 deaths is enough.

R is not constant.
R needs to be below 1 for a long time.
Then there's the issue of reintroduction from other regions.

What most countries are doing is to reopen with caution as their R is a little bit below 1 and to monitor it. But for R to be below 1 it helps if there aren't many cases and it's possible to control transmission chains.

They have said that measures may need to be tightened again if it appears the virus is spreading. That doesn’t necessarily mean back to lockdown as it was at the beginning, but it might mean (e.g.) non essential shops having to close again.

I agree with a pp and April was our second wave. The first was December.

I can’t see another peak happening now because we know what we Are looking for. Back in March, if someone had symptoms they were told only to self isolate if they’d been to China. So they’d still be out spreading

I believe there will be a second large wave in autumn.

I also think we are much better at identifying the symptoms so can hopefully distinguish it from regular flu come winter. Also by that time, maybe we'll have a few better drugs for treatment.

No idea, I am hoping not.

I just wish it would fuck right off. Having a really bad day today.

So down.

@LEELULUMPKIN, am sorry. I feel the same. I wish my boring wee life of 4 months ago was here again.

Is anyone actually proposing we get back to total normality though? Packed football matches, crowds, lax handwashing and cleaning? No, they're not. We are mitigating against as bad a peak as we have had this spring already. If other outbreaks appear - and the likelihood is they will - we are far better placed to stamp on them because our attitudes have changed. And that's despite Selfish Idiots Flocking To Beaches and Selfish VE Day Conga Lines and Scones . It's tempting to blame everything on people who dare to try and get a bit of enjoyment out of life, but the fact is, there's a pandemic and lives will be lost.

Because our attitudes have changed
I think this is a key point, in order to to find a way to live our lives in these new conditions we first have to internalize what's going on
we need to get to a point where we instinctively avoid areas and situations of high transmission