Second Wave - Yes or No?

[MysticMeghan]

So the papers are now full of warnings about a "deadly second wave" but if you ditch the articles and look at the comments 99% of people don't agree. People want lockdown over, they want to get out, they want things back how they were. Look at the beaches today.

Most people I know think it's going to peter out in the next few weeks. The tabloids seem to be going with this, but then they print whatever sensationalist crap sells newspapers, it's not necessarily true. Even my own friends think that in a worst case scenario few people might have mild flu like symptoms, it's not worth going crazy over, we're all over reacting and we've stuffed the economy and everyone's businesses and jobs for nothing. Just so the government can flex its muscles and control us. Many even think it's a conspiracy.

Justification for the "overreaction" theory seems to be that the Nordic countries haven't really locked down and only a few have died. Many European countries now opening up again with few ill effects and many tourist destinations in Spain etc.now looking to have a late tourist season.

In the UK we are constantly being reminded that deaths are going DOWN. Therefore it's ok.. "It's over" seems to be the prevailing theme. McDonalds and Burger King open again, people in England allowed to travel and taking full advantage, going to the beach, the park, hanging out with their mates. Prevailing theory seems to be that the experts over reacted and got it wrong, we all self isolated for nothing and the same experts warning of a second wave just want their 5 minutes of fame. Ignore them and lock them up. Most people don't know anyone who has had it or died of it and therefore the risk is small, it's just a bit of flu and people die of flu all the time.

Or....there might be a very deadly second wave after all, this is being glimpsed in China but is being covered up. Governments and companies are desperate to re-start economies so are taking the view that if a few more die who cares, they were probably old people who would have died anyway. And young people aren't affected so just put things back the way they were and if a few oldies die then just collateral damage.Oldies can stay at home if they're worried.

Which is it? I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. It IS a deadly disease, it's being desperately underplayed now in the interests of preventing economic ruin. I certainly think the British Media is being manipulated and that's why we have one story one day and a completely different one the next.

Am I the only person in the world who thinks that pubs and restaurants re-opening and global travel re-starting for the sake of keeping a tourist industry alive is a really bad idea?

I think @AlecTrevelyan006 - is working for the government perhaps?

My feeling is that there is a wish for a second wave to start again now. It would be convenient when hospitals are more empty - before the flu seasons starts again ...

Convenient for the NHS - not for those of us who catch Covid.

I am wary of being lulled into a false sense of security by the likes of @AlecTrevelyan006 - who seems to be copy and pasting identical posts on various threads.

Yes there shall be a second wave and be possibly a third though hopefully that shall not be anywhere near as bad

It’s not just suddenly disappeared people are socialising and traveling more

I don’t think we need tighter restrictions but they may be curbed again slightly in the future

No new cases recorded in London over a 24 hour period, so he might be correct

@stuckindoors77 Iran has had an increase in cases but not deaths. This could be due to more testing.

The first peak came from a handful To couple of hundred people catching it abroad.

I really truly hope there isn’t a second peak... but if there’s a handful to a couple of hundred with it during this easing.... the logic part of my brain worries. We’re distancing more now although many of us we’re doing so for a couple of weeks before lockdown.

I hope not.

I fear there will be.

I expect reality to be somewhere between those two.

A second wave is incoming. Anyone who thinks otherwise, is an idiot.

On the Zoe app there’s been an increase in those reporting symptoms in London. It’s true and encouraging that there are no reported tested cases with Positive results (people are waiting up to 10 days at mo) but there are people reporting symptoms.

Isn't it a shame that, unlike every other country in the world, we haven't been testing. We could answer your question that way OP!

Because of that lack of proper testing, I'll suggest that yes, we will have a second wave. Tubes crammed full of people for a week should start showing up in (our belated) figures a week next Monday.

FWIW anyone claiming "a high up doctor" in London has any idea of infections in a capital city "disappearing" without community testing is pulling your leg.

Interesting article in The Guardian today. The Director of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control is saying that the question is not if a second wave is coming but when and how big.

We all want the lock downs to be over and life to return to normal life but dismissing what epidemiologists and scientist are saying is to have learnt nothing how pandemics work.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/top-eu-doctor-europe-should-brace-itself-for-second-wave-of-coronavirus

Iran has had an increase in cases but not deaths. This could be due to more testing.

I hope so

No

Inevitable that a second wave will occur.

There will be a second peak in the next month or so. And a 3rd in November time.

Just from looking at how pandemics have run historically, I think there will be a second wave. The virus hasn’t just disappeared.

Most people don't know anyone who has had it or died of it and therefore the risk is small, it's just a bit of flu and people die of flu all the time.

I'm not sure about this. I only live in a small town, and wouldn't say I have a huge circle of friends. I've had an elderly relative die of it, and know two who've been in hospital with it, plus numerous others who've had it moderately or mildly at home (some not tested by displaying classic symptoms)

I don't think so. Past pandemics were different viruses, mainly the flu. There is no reason to think this will follow the same pattern. The original sars faded away and I think this will do the same. And if there is a second peak, well there's nothing we can do about it. Living life in such an anxious state is not good. We can't stay in our houses forever or none of us will even have homes. And I say this as someone who has been concerned about this since January and who prepared for a lockdown when I saw what was happening in China only half thinking it could actually happen here. Im over it. Its time to get back to normality as much as possible. 99%+ of people will be fine. Wear masks, social distance where possible, wash hands often. I wonder will these measures that have become second nature at this stage will mean a lesser flu season later in the year?

I suspect there is likely to be a second peak, and predict it will hit about August/September time following the relaxing of the lockdown and people getting back to normal. I hope I am wrong but this started with 1 case and quickly escalated so all it takes is for 1 case to be in the community and transmission will start again.

I think what we had in April was the 2nd wave.

I have no doubts there will be a second wave. I also don’t care if people want their freedom and going back to normal, as long as they don’t invade my freedom and stay 2 meters away.

I think we are slowly joining on the idea that this virus will not kill the vast majority of people, and we are ok with other people to die, as long as it is other people not us or any person close to us.

I agree with PP, it makes a huge difference if you have lost people to this virus, sadly that is my case and my DDs case who lost her 21 year old nursery colleague to COVID in April. I have lost colleagues, but work for an ambulance trust so sadly its expected.

What has changed that will stop the virus spreading all over again once the lockdown begins to lift (which it has)? The original breakout originated in a tiny handful of cases. There are far more than that ongoing now that can spread.

This time I guess there may be more immune people, so it might not spread as fast as it could have done, but unless we have proper, large-scale testing and isolating then we don’t know.

Apart from locking down for a few weeks, there seems to be nothing big enough in place to stop it all just spreading again, which make me think the government want to continue with the herd community plan, just spread out the deaths over a longer time in the hope we get used to it.
I definitely don’t trust the advice to loosen lockdown for that reason.

I just read about an interesting study which shows that spread of coronaviruses drops dramatically in the summer month to almost zero. I think this is what we are seeing happen now as cases are dropping in most of the northern hemisphere, even in those places that have relaxed their lockdown. What does that mean for a second wave? Who knows

here it is

That's just conjecture by a single author in a paper that hasn't been peer reviewed.

The fact is that we simply don't know what will happen in the Summer.

The study was done on endemic coronaviruses. This mean the normal cold causing coronavirus

SARS-cov-2 isn't yet endemic and has different behaviour.

Assuming that this virus is like other coronavirus is what got us to the pandemic state. Assume nothing.