Second Wave - Yes or No?

[MysticMeghan]

So the papers are now full of warnings about a "deadly second wave" but if you ditch the articles and look at the comments 99% of people don't agree. People want lockdown over, they want to get out, they want things back how they were. Look at the beaches today.

Most people I know think it's going to peter out in the next few weeks. The tabloids seem to be going with this, but then they print whatever sensationalist crap sells newspapers, it's not necessarily true. Even my own friends think that in a worst case scenario few people might have mild flu like symptoms, it's not worth going crazy over, we're all over reacting and we've stuffed the economy and everyone's businesses and jobs for nothing. Just so the government can flex its muscles and control us. Many even think it's a conspiracy.

Justification for the "overreaction" theory seems to be that the Nordic countries haven't really locked down and only a few have died. Many European countries now opening up again with few ill effects and many tourist destinations in Spain etc.now looking to have a late tourist season.

In the UK we are constantly being reminded that deaths are going DOWN. Therefore it's ok.. "It's over" seems to be the prevailing theme. McDonalds and Burger King open again, people in England allowed to travel and taking full advantage, going to the beach, the park, hanging out with their mates. Prevailing theory seems to be that the experts over reacted and got it wrong, we all self isolated for nothing and the same experts warning of a second wave just want their 5 minutes of fame. Ignore them and lock them up. Most people don't know anyone who has had it or died of it and therefore the risk is small, it's just a bit of flu and people die of flu all the time.

Or....there might be a very deadly second wave after all, this is being glimpsed in China but is being covered up. Governments and companies are desperate to re-start economies so are taking the view that if a few more die who cares, they were probably old people who would have died anyway. And young people aren't affected so just put things back the way they were and if a few oldies die then just collateral damage.Oldies can stay at home if they're worried.

Which is it? I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. It IS a deadly disease, it's being desperately underplayed now in the interests of preventing economic ruin. I certainly think the British Media is being manipulated and that's why we have one story one day and a completely different one the next.

Am I the only person in the world who thinks that pubs and restaurants re-opening and global travel re-starting for the sake of keeping a tourist industry alive is a really bad idea?

I think it depends when people are shielding leave their homes.

Why wouldn't there be?

What has changed? We're a bit better at social distancing, but that doesn't work with really getting back to normal - the tube, planes, clubs, cinemas, full schools - so as soon as we want to do all that stuff, it's going to start again.

I think they want the second peak to crack on......the hospitals aren't full. If the second wave is put off then it will happen in winter when flu season and hospitals are generally busier......

@ReadingTeaLeaves

I assume you are lucky in that it has not affected you personally yet.

Depends what you mean by "personally". I don't have much family to worry about just DH and DD (the latter is recovering from a nasty accident unrelated to Covid but making good progress). And I am able to WFH and can do this for as long as I want.

At work a colleague with a young family and no underlying health conditions has died. My old Manager (retired) has died but not particularly healthy at the best of times. One of the security guards who I knew quite well. A couple in the next village who died within a few hours of each other. So I'm not exactly in a position where I can say I don't know anyone but part from being over 45 and a bit overweight I'm not BAME and don't consider myself particularly at risk.

A second wave is inevitable, unless we stay in lockdown or until we have a vaccine. And probably a third wave in the autumn/winter.

Hopefully they'll be be smaller waves than the first one.

Two weeks ago I read lots of posts about how the VE day celebrations would lead to an increase in cases, has anyone seen any evidence for that? The two week period is up but there's no increase in the daily positives.

Attitudes seemed to change around that time, would that not be starting to show by now?

I have 5 friends who are medics (some GP, some hospital based). All are gearing up for the second wave. Opinion on when this will be varies from July - October, but all of them are noticeably worried.

Of course there will be a second peak and tens of thousands more will die. It’s inevitable. As we have seen in recent days people are so stupid, so selfish and so entitled that they think they can ignore the scientific guidelines and ignore social distancing with no consequences for themselves or their families. It’s Darwinism in action.

Unfortunately, many sensible people who are doing everything they can to inform themselves properly about the risks and comply with guidelines will also suffer.

(US). Hot spots. Not waves.
Social distancing everywhere.
I don't forsee people tolerating a lockdown again, but if legitimate numbers present, I believe most people will reel it in a bit.
I have a physician friend who is actually quite hopeful that flu season won't be as bad with the increased awareness about hygiene. She is also hopeful that more people will get the flu shot. It's been free for us for years...

deadly second wave

They want to sell papers.

I go by CDC and etc.

Maybe because I'm in Scotland I can see a real difference between what we still have and what English posters are saying.

In Scotland we also have a falling infection and death rate.

A high up London based doctor I know working in London says the virus virtually disappeared overnight a week or so ago. Says it’s really weird. Almost as if it never happened and said that he and other colleagues are actually slightly freaked out about it.

Maa as me of that what you will.

I’m just a random bloke on the internet.

Make of that what you will

There will be a second increase but not a peak. So we flattened the curve of the first one, now what will happen is it steps up again, but marginally. So it won't look like two mountains it will look like two plateaus. Test and trace will assist the flattening more so than lockdown, and possibly a vaccine should there be one will then be the "cure" bit till there's a cure flattening peaks is all you can do.

Fact is a deadly virus of which the host population has no immunity is circulating, we can't eradicate it without a vaccine or natural immunity. All you can do in the meantime is track it, trace it and stem the flow from the outbreak.

@MysticMeghan I'm glad you don't feel personally at risk and I'm so sorry you've had those other losses in your personal social circle. I hope we can do as much as possible to avoid more people suffering losses like that in a second peak.

Personally I think the same thing will happen with covid as it did with sars, it will mutate into a less lethal virus. There are already studies showing that this is happening

There's no simple answer.

Only Sweden didn't really locked down, and their numbers are high. The others controlled the virus more but measures were more severe.

The extent of the lockdown needed depends on how bad a country got.

In Portugal we never got as strict as in parts of Italy or Spain, but we started measures earlier.

Whether there will be a second wave or not will depend on whether people will go back to life as before or not.
To avoid a second wave we'll need some distancing, and more widespread use of PPE and hygiene.

So, I wouldn't be able to predict whether a second wave will come or not.

But I'm certain that if we go back to how society was in, say, January, then we'll get that second wave for sure.

Personally I think the same thing will happen with covid as it did with sars, it will mutate into a less lethal virus.
That's not what happened. SARS was contained and extinguished. The virus disappeared from the human population.

There are already studies showing that this is happening

Not really.

I think 50/50
I'm on the fence

I really feel the government didn't believe it was so bad, but hense the herd immunity theory. however were guilted into going into lockdown by other countries actions etc. They now realise their mistakes and need to slowly let things get back to normal all the while us beleiveing we have beat something that was never going to cause huge amounts of damage in the first place. ( not saying any death is ok and I really feel for anyone that has lost family during this) just look at all the papers or news channels when they mention how many people died and then have to mention how many didn't have any underlying conditions... After all this are we going to mention on the news how many people die every day that didn't have any underlying conditions? No of course not and I can tell you that the number is much higher than those dying of this with no health issues.

I agree with many others that after July things will be back to normal and the government's around the world will not want papers or news channels to mention COVID!

I would love to feel this was coming to an end. But it can't be.

We are heading for a second peak for sure. This will start in 3 weeks time, I reckon. It will increase in size and become huge if we don't curb our behaviour/freedom again or properly re lockdown.

@AlecTrevelyan006 What do you mean? 🤔

Unless the virus just disappears, I can't see how cases won't increase again. As soon as lockdown is lifted, it will spread. It's just a case of how well-managed it is. It you think about it - it took very little time from the first case to the peak and the same thing can just happen again. The problem is, lockdown does have to be lifted as we can't live in our homes forever. I can't see a way out except the vulnerable staying at home and other people trying to keep going on outside. What is the alternative? People saying lockdown can't be lifted...what do you suggest? We are just delaying the spread, not eradicating it.

I doubt a second peak until flu season comes around again. I think just a relatively low rumble of cases until then