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Second Wave - Yes or No?

235 replies

MysticMeghan · 20/05/2020 21:52

So the papers are now full of warnings about a "deadly second wave" but if you ditch the articles and look at the comments 99% of people don't agree. People want lockdown over, they want to get out, they want things back how they were. Look at the beaches today.

Most people I know think it's going to peter out in the next few weeks. The tabloids seem to be going with this, but then they print whatever sensationalist crap sells newspapers, it's not necessarily true. Even my own friends think that in a worst case scenario few people might have mild flu like symptoms, it's not worth going crazy over, we're all over reacting and we've stuffed the economy and everyone's businesses and jobs for nothing. Just so the government can flex its muscles and control us. Many even think it's a conspiracy.

Justification for the "overreaction" theory seems to be that the Nordic countries haven't really locked down and only a few have died. Many European countries now opening up again with few ill effects and many tourist destinations in Spain etc.now looking to have a late tourist season.

In the UK we are constantly being reminded that deaths are going DOWN. Therefore it's ok.. "It's over" seems to be the prevailing theme. McDonalds and Burger King open again, people in England allowed to travel and taking full advantage, going to the beach, the park, hanging out with their mates. Prevailing theory seems to be that the experts over reacted and got it wrong, we all self isolated for nothing and the same experts warning of a second wave just want their 5 minutes of fame. Ignore them and lock them up. Most people don't know anyone who has had it or died of it and therefore the risk is small, it's just a bit of flu and people die of flu all the time.

Or....there might be a very deadly second wave after all, this is being glimpsed in China but is being covered up. Governments and companies are desperate to re-start economies so are taking the view that if a few more die who cares, they were probably old people who would have died anyway. And young people aren't affected so just put things back the way they were and if a few oldies die then just collateral damage.Oldies can stay at home if they're worried.

Which is it? I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. It IS a deadly disease, it's being desperately underplayed now in the interests of preventing economic ruin. I certainly think the British Media is being manipulated and that's why we have one story one day and a completely different one the next.

Am I the only person in the world who thinks that pubs and restaurants re-opening and global travel re-starting for the sake of keeping a tourist industry alive is a really bad idea?

OP posts:
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AllTheWhoresOfMalta · 21/05/2020 14:12

I mean... who really cares what my opinion or your opinion or any non experts opinion is? I don’t know, I’m not a doctor. I wish our government were listening properly to the people who do know.

Sadie789 · 21/05/2020 14:15

@DahliaDay this simply does not tally with any of the hospital workers I know or have heard from, nor the two people I know who are in hospital for other things right now.

Sadie789 · 21/05/2020 14:16

Two different hospitals at that.

PrimalLass · 21/05/2020 16:56

This is long but interesting.

www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=18&v=DKh6kJ-RSMI&feature=emb_logo

PrimalLass · 21/05/2020 16:57

From this article: unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/

Daffodil101 · 21/05/2020 17:42

Dahlia day - ITU consultant in this house, his experience does not tally with your report.

Lua · 21/05/2020 17:49

If you want an expert opinion, here it is:
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/top-eu-doctor-europe-should-brace-itself-for-second-wave-of-coronavirus

There will be a second wave, the only question is when.

MonkeyToesOfDoom · 21/05/2020 18:02

If you want an expert opinion

No thanks, Dave from The White Lion shared a meme on Facebook so I know it's safe and the virus is gone. 👍

B1rdbra1n · 21/05/2020 18:14

Thanks for the link Primalass!
more from Sunetra Gupta here:
unherd.com/2020/05/oxford-doubles-down-sunetra-gupta-interview/
'As she sees it, the antibody studies, although useful, do not indicate the true level of exposure or level of immunity. First, many of the antibody tests are “extremely unreliable” and rely on hard-to-achieve representative groups. But more important, many people who have been exposed to the virus will have other kinds of immunity that don’t show up on antibody tests — either for genetic reasons or the result of pre-existing immunities to related coronaviruses such as the common cold.
The implications of this are profound – it means that when we hear results from antibody tests (such as a forthcoming official UK Government study) the percentage who test positive for antibodies is not necessarily equal to the percentage who have immunity or resistance to the virus. The true number could be much higher'

B1rdbra1n · 21/05/2020 18:15

an expert opinion
thing is there are various experts and they dont line up, which expert is right, and if the experts dont agree how do we know who is the real expert?

B1rdbra1n · 21/05/2020 18:18

Mind you Sunetra Gupta if proved right will surely be at high risk of some sort of defenestrationShock
govts dont like experts who make them look bad:(

Lweji · 21/05/2020 21:46

thing is there are various experts and they dont line up, which expert is right, and if the experts dont agree how do we know who is the real expert?

This is a new thing. There are no experts.

It's very complex to predict epidemics and we have very little to base those models on.

Think of it as the weather. It can be predicted to some extent for 2-3 days. With less accuracy up to 10. Then all we have are seasonal patterns, really

We simply don't know with any decent degree of certainty what will happen.

PissOffStayAtHomeDogMum · 21/05/2020 21:47

OP, I think it's an excellent idea. We need to get away from all the ridiculous hysteria and try to get back to as near to normal as possible.

Daffodil101 · 21/05/2020 21:51

I secretly suspect it’s going to fizzle out. I hope I’m right, for all our sakes.

I’m an expert in only my own opinion, however.

And I also think lots of people will be glad of a second wave so they can say ‘told you so.’ Which goes to show that there are lot of twats out there.

So ‘stay safe.’

Lweji · 21/05/2020 21:53

I don't think it will fizzle out, but I don't think there will be a huge second wave.
More like ripples, as health authorities relax rules and monitor transmission. Those that do...

Daffodil101 · 21/05/2020 21:55

I’d settle for that!

But still secretly hoping!

MaryShelley1818 · 21/05/2020 22:32

I think there will be a second wave in August/September purely based on chats with medical friends.

However I sincerely hope I'm completely wrong. This is not living.

Daffodil101 · 21/05/2020 22:33

Where do your medical friends get their info?

DahliaDay · 21/05/2020 22:46

do the medical people get out and about enough? do they see the total disregard for social distancing.....the way the British public are behaving
.......because its all fake news didnt you know, there is no virus according to an alarming number of people

lets see

HesterShaw1 · 21/05/2020 22:48

Being sceptical about the benefits of lockdown really isnt the same as denying that there's a virus Hmm

TheMotherofAllDilemmas · 21/05/2020 22:50

I think there will be a second wave in August/September

Given the streets, parks and beaches look like a perennial Easter Sunday, I would say the second peak may be as early as late June.

ballsdeep · 21/05/2020 22:55

Why do people think there won't be a second wave, when all the doctors, consultants, medics etc are saying there will be? ITU consultants in Wales are praising the first minister for extending lock down here

savehalloween · 21/05/2020 23:06

I think cases will rise, so yes a so called second peak but we have empty field hospitals at the ready, more knowledge, testing and soon a working track and trace system.

Even if all of the above isn't perfect, it's a very different picture.

I don't think a second wave of as many cases and deaths as we've just accumulated is coming, no. But cases will rise to an arbitrary point that tabloids will call a second peak, even if that number is low

HorsesDoovers · 21/05/2020 23:09

Yes I think so.
Look at all the idiots flocking to the beaches, no regard to social distancing whatsoever.
Add to that the increase in cases when they send Yr R, 1 & 6 back on the 1st June, I think a second peak is inevitable.

HesterShaw1 · 21/05/2020 23:21

Shall we leave the name calling to the government who told us we could drive unlimited distances in England? If I had been in an inner city flat for 8 weeks and had a car, damn right I'd be heading for the coast.

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