This virus is not going to go away, a vaccine may never be developed, we are just going to have to get used to it as part of life

[Lardlizard]

Nothing is going to be hugely
Different come September

Imagine if the government did nothing.

Why dont you catch it and then see how you feel about it all @Lardlizard. Give it a go, then you'll be able to advocate from a position of experience.

Think we maybe have already had it

But best to be sure, yes? Not really fair to lead from behind.

If we could be tested for antibodies then we would know

Which is why antibody testing to properly get an idea of how many have had it should be a priority
I’m 80% certain we all had it over the first two weeks of lockdown but yes would be good to make sure
We cannot and shouldn’t rely on a vaccine or drug treatment
We should be antibody testing and creating a good contact tracing and quarantine procedure. Work out how many of us have had it
Then slowly work at way out of this like the rest of Europe because we cannot stay lockdown for much longer - and to be fair we aren’t it’s is loosening everyday

New Zealand will quickly start to realise that when they have the choice between closing their borders for years and dying a slow death from poverty or opening their borders and accepting that they'll have some new infections.

I think "dying a slow death from poverty" is a bit of an over-reaction! For a start most of NZ's tourists come from Australia, and the borders between the two countries will be open fairly soon. Also most people do not rely on tourism for their income.

Yes I'm sure New Zealand is gutted at doing so well at controlling coronavirus. Just think, in a few weeks 90% of their economy will be able to carry on as usual. Poor dears, they must be so jealous.

"I’m starting it come round the the idea that this lockdown is unlawful"

No, it's lawful
A democratically elected government has passed the necessary laws, which do not infringe international law

New Zealand will quickly start to realise that when they have the choice between closing their borders for years and dying a slow death from poverty or opening their borders and accepting that they'll have some new infections.

Some people are real salty about New Zealand taking a strong and seemingly very successful elimination strategy.

New Zealand is an export-driven nation with a tourism market primarily led by domestic and Australian travellers. It has low government debt levels and good food supply chains. Nobody is likely to start dying a slow death from poverty even with a significant hit to international visitors.

Besides a slow death from poverty is a lot easier to see coming and adapt for than a fast death from coronavirus.

"Which is why antibody testing to properly get an idea of how many have had it should be a priority"

Spain's Ministry of Health released their study of 60,000 people
Blood samples showed about 5% of the country had been infected

... and their deaths / million are slightly worse than the UK's

French scientists recently estimated about 5% of their population have been infected too

I expect London has a high infection rate, but rural areas would have a much lower rate
So it depends whereabouts you have lived, worked and travelled

I am curious about the countries Who have controlled the virus which have made bubbles with others - eg Baltic countries, nz and oz are being considered.

I presume they will have mandatory quarantines for travel in - except for other places with low infection rate. The question is - will their bubbles grow with others joining, or will they pop and just lower barriers?

Even if they do just lower barriers, they at least have the choice to do this, whereas it is much harder the other way. I suspect the countries with least economic impact will be those that locked down hard and early as they can open early.

Countries need freight exports and imports, but they may well be Ok without foreign tourists for a year or two.
A lot of tourism in some countries is domestic, too

There won't be a single strategy that is best for every country
New Zealand and Sweden both did what their governments decided suited their people.

The chosen UK strategy atm is to follow other European countries and relax lockdown in stages,
looks like from 1 June

I am curious about the countries Who have controlled the virus which have made bubbles with others - eg Baltic countries, nz and oz are being considered.I presume they will have mandatory quarantines for travel in - except for other places with low infection rate. The question is - will their bubbles grow with others joining, or will they pop and just lower barriers?

If an effective vaccine is not created, my guess is that over the next couple of years travel and potentially trading blocs will emerge grouped around countries who have pursued similar strategies with similar levels of success.

There may be an Oceania-Asia bloc vs a US-Europe bloc. Several major countries in Asia, most notably China but also Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, are actively pursuing elimination strategies. New Zealand is far from the only one, it's just the current poster boy because our low numbers are seen as comparatively trustworthy and our approach more reliant on cooperation than dictatorship.

@LilacTree1 can you explain what the figures you posted are? Seems to be opening incorrectly for me. Thanks!

I had a chat with a retired GP - friend of my parents - who treated flu in 1968. That now has estimates of up to 80,000 dead. She was saying if she’d not been a GP, she might not even have known about it

In 1968 plenty of doctors drove home in their cars without a seatbelt on, so maybe we've learned a few new things in the last 52 years.

Even if you know someone who has died - as I said I feel for you and I'm so sorry you have to deal with that. It's immensely unfair. But it doesn't change the fact that at a population level the deaths amount to a relatively small number of people, particularly when you are looking at the numbers of young, healthy fatalities.

But this misses the point that the deaths would have been far greater without the lockdowns. Half a million deaths in 8 weeks in the UK would not have been a "relatively small number" at a population level. Because that is the "reasonable" estimate of what would have been the deaths

We have to minimise the harm which is being done by society having been shut down. It will amount to far more damage than the virus can do.

We have already minimised the harm, by lockdown. Across the world.

As has been said by our own government recently, the damage would have been "catastrophic", not just in deaths but for the economy and health services. Far exceeding anything we are experiencing now

As 7days said
Imagine if the government did nothing.

Exactly

For a start most of NZ's tourists come from Australia, and the borders between the two countries will be open fairly soon

Not what my customs officer SiL working airside in Sydney has said. earliest she's been told at the moment is mid-to-late January.

Half a million deaths is unfounded model from Ferguson. In a couple of weeks time that model will be redacted.
Soon you will see proper models about how this virus does not spread exponentially.

Not what my customs officer SiL working airside in Sydney has said. earliest she's been told at the moment is mid-to-late January.

In the context of a worldwide pandemic that will likely continue in waves for years in the absence of a vaccine, that is fairly soon.

People need to get realistic about their timelines for this.

Soon you will see proper models about how this virus does not spread exponentially

Do you understand what the world 'exponentially' means?

We don't need models to know that that is what it does. We have real-life evidence.

Soon you will see proper models about how this virus does not spread exponentially

Even with no mitigation measures in place and a large susceptible population? Who is working on these models, do you have inside info?

Vaccine by sept?! Not a chance

The quickest vaccine made took 4 years!

If they do make it - and I do think it’s pie in the sky - who would want to take a vaccine that’s cut so many corners given the risk is actually pretty low ?

Sorry 5 years was the fastest ever vaccine

Vaccine to swine flu took a lot less than 5 years didnt it? Ditto Ebola.