This virus is not going to go away, a vaccine may never be developed, we are just going to have to get used to it as part of life

[Lardlizard]

Nothing is going to be hugely
Different come September

I get that there will be collateral damage and people will die due to delayed diagnosis and treatment of other conditions

Bloody hell has it really got to the stage where people believe in a death hierarchy? It's ok to think suicide, cancer and other non-covid deaths are less important than covid ones? Fuck me that's harsh.

It’s a pandemic, there’s going to be “collateral damage“ somewhere- in deaths, in finances, in mental health, in education and many other aspects of life. I think most people would prefer that damage to be “other people” and ideally out of sight. Just human nature.

Organising the seasonal flu vaccine program is done almost a year in advance to ensure the supplies are ordered, manufactured, delivered and administered in time.

If a new vaccine is developed it will be quite an undertaking to manufacture and administer. It’s hard to imagine all of that taking place in advance of the upcoming winter flu season.

Manufacturing yes. Administration? It’s giving an injection. I would like to think they’d get the army to put up tents in car parks, and vets, vet nurses, retired HCPs, dentists, trained volunteers etc, could do the vaccination. Commandeer some refrigerated lorries.

And keep sharing the NHS figures.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-18-May-2020.xlsx

It’s a pandemic, there’s going to be “collateral damage“ somewhere- in deaths, in finances, in mental health, in education and many other aspects of life. I think most people would prefer that damage to be “other people” and ideally out of sight. Just human nature.

I agree except that people don't seem to realise that none of the economic damage is going to happen 'out of sight' - everyone will be affected by it, for a long time.

You are right but it has to be brought under control first, which at the moment it definitely isn't.

Apparently something miraculous is happening in September...

The difference will be that you'll have to live in a destroyed economy

The difference from what? The healthy booming economy after exponential growth in infection?

Before you start on me, I am not remotely advising we remain as we are if and until a vaccine, or that everyone can or should hide from the virus. What you say in your title I don't necessarily disagree with.

But so many people use that as a springboard for saying that we should not have done anything or should now end all restrictions. It's cloud cuckoo land to think that if we did that, we would have the schools, healthcare, economic activity we want.

A very key example to me is healthcare for non covid conditions. If people are concerned about this they would not be arguing to end all restrictions, they would be arguing to lock down hard and keep infection rates so low that it will be much more feasible, and much safer, for non covid hospital treatment to completely resume. They would be saying, if we can only do so much without infection levels getting out of control, put cancer treatment first, not my desire to go out. Also wanting to make sure the infection level does not get out of control and perpetuate a situation where treatment is unavailable and even if it were available, immuno compromised patients would be at huge risk leaving their homes to access it.

I think there needs to be a laser focus on getting non covid treatment back on track, and establishing the safest possible ways to do so. Getting the economy moving more in the safest possible ways is key for health and public services too. But it's a case of learning to live with it with the right priorities in place.

If only it was back to the normal life at the end of the year, but I can’t see that happening at all, sadly

I do believe they will develop a vaccine but, surely it will only be given to the elderly and ppl with underlying issues?

I’d have thought that the rollout of the vaccine will be prioritised, but that it will eventually be offered to all. A lot will depend on how long immunity lasts, though.

I agree OP. I feel for anyone who loses someone to this virus, I feel immensely for anyone vulnerable who is shielding and who really needs a vaccine to be developed fast (and one that is effective enough to make a difference). But you don't shut down the whole of society for a minority - or certainly only up to a point.

Even if you know someone who has died - as I said I feel for you and I'm so sorry you have to deal with that. It's immensely unfair. But it doesn't change the fact that at a population level the deaths amount to a relatively small number of people, particularly when you are looking at the numbers of young, healthy fatalities.

We have to minimise the harm which is being done by society having been shut down. It will amount to far more damage than the virus can do.

For all those that dont agree what other choice is there though. There is a real chance we may never get a vaccine or treatment to this

Once the transmission rate has dropped and the test track and trace process is up and running life has to start back up

*A very key example to me is healthcare for non covid conditions. If people are concerned about this they would not be arguing to end all restrictions, they would be arguing to lock down hard and keep infection rates so low that it will be much more feasible, and much safer, for non covid hospital treatment to completely resume

Not sure this really works. The problem is that so much transmission is in hospital - sure I read one fifth? So opening the NHS back fully will probably result in increased transmission, and the need for more beds, which in turn will mean there aren’t the spare beds for elective stuff.

For my part, I support the lockdown but don’t support them having reduced cancer surgery capacity to free up space. Chemo is slightly different - there are medical reasons for not pursuing that during a pandemic due to the effect on immune system.

There absolutely will be a vaccine. Harder to say when but there will be. And signs are good it may be sooner than expected.

Don't bother posting 'you're wrong' because I could just as easily post that back at you, then we'd be here all night, and my tea's nearly ready

I have seen on twitter today that doctors in Italy are reporting that the covid19 has mutated into common flu. Can an Italian speaker can verify this?

This has made me laugh. I wonder whether my cat could mutate into a dog??

That's a good point @RoosterPie

I assume transmission in hospital is not uninfluenced by community transmission though and vice versa, but I had heard that one possible route was to have covid and non covid hospitals separately, with no staff overlap. We have to resume non covid healthcare, perhaps not all areas but most cannot wait for either a vaccine or naturally acquired herd immunity, should either of those come to pass. A lower rate of infection has to help.

I have seen on twitter today that doctors in Italy are reporting that the covid19 has mutated into common flu. Can an Italian speaker can verify this?

This is pretty funny. It was a joke, right?

If not, please do post the link.

An article just came out In The daily mail that doesn’t look too good for the oxford vaccine 😟

Inkpaperstars
Very well said.

A pandemic will decimate the economy. A pandemic will wreck health care for both infectious patients and patients of everyday conditions. A pandemic will lead to increased strain, mental health problems, social problems.
How on earth could it not.

What do people expect if a disease runs rampant through a community, say if 50% caught it at once. How would that work if 40% of those caught it severely enough to be out of work. That's the economy, the schools, supply chains and utilities fairly and probably unevenly fucked. What if 20% caught it at once and there was no possibility of medical care. The 1% who die now, would rise 2 or 3 fold. The percentages look tiny. But no society could Bob along losing 1% of its population in a couple of months.

The lockdown is shit obviously, but it's a mitigation measure.

With a pandemic you'd be jobless and stressed anyway. At least lockdown avoids the hundreds and thousands dead on top of that.

Wish I had a time machine. What colour is yours?

I’m starting it come round the the idea that this lockdown is unlawful

Oh aye, OP.

Mount a legal challenge then. Or join one of the ones that are surely being cooked up by brave warriors all over the internet.

Without a lockdown youd have as much economic damage, as much mental health problems, as much repayment of other medical treatment. But youd have a few hundred thousand extra deaths as well. That's pandemics, look them up, they tend to be shit all round.

But if you're bored and frustrated at home.... maybe it'll be worth it?

I’m certainly not going out to join a riot, but I’m starting to see their POV