Do you honestly think a successful COVID vaccine will happen within the next 18 months?

[DreamChaser23]

I feel that it is not guaranteed and this may be something that we have to be used to for many years to come..

I can kind of see the markets argument (although the results of the human trials is due next month so won’t work for long if it’s not a runner) but I’m still not sure why individuals would rush back to work now on the promise of a vaccine in September?

I would have though people would be more willing to exit lockdown if they thought there would never be a vaccine?

Markets can only be artificially buoyed for so long. If that’s why they are doing it. It doesn’t help that much.

The monkey situation sounds rather pertinent however.

The reason I’m not googling for people is because it pisses me off that folks can’t be arsed to looK. People slag you off with no evidence, can’t be arsed googling and then ask you to post the link To help them out.. Yeah, watch me go and be some clueless randomers secretary..

But why would you have to google? You have posted the stats, so have presumably already done the googling, and thus have the links readily available to post on here?

@Bluntness100

20,740 Covid deaths have been identified in NYC.

www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

NYC has a population of 8.337m

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City

That gives a case fatality rate of 0.25%.... so even if no else died (and unfortunately they will) and everyone in NYC has had it (which is extraordinarily unlikely - latest antibody test show 25%) that’s already significantly more than the 0.05% figure you quoted.

Markets can only be artificially buoyed for so long. If that’s why they are doing it. It doesn’t help that much.

When one is a minute from death, one will take a day offered.

I've been arsed to look and I've not found a study that gives that IFR. However Gangelt in Germany is 0.36 and NYC was 0.86. What population are you referring to? Russia?

Honestly you are giving him far more credit than deserved. He's divided the confirmed UK deaths by the entire population to get 0.05%.

If any reader isn't clear why this is moronic, please see my posts upthread.

I’m not convinced on either the markets or the individual arguments for overselling the chances of a vaccine to be honest. If anything I thought Boris and co were fairly pessimistic on the subject in the recent daily briefings and in the “road map” document.

If anything I felt they were being purposely negative to try and counteract the “we’ll lockdown until a vaccine” school of thought rather than overly positive.

Today seemed to be more positive in that they are front loading the process but still reasonably cautious.

When one is a minute from death, one will take a day offered. Is that how bad you think it is, or just a phrase

Also people must investigate beyond media for decisions? There probably is an element that reflects mood but what do markets react to, media or information from companies (ok I admit these may be basic questions but I am interested).

Fatality seems to be stabilising at around 1.3%

MarshaBradyo

Do I think that markets will cease to operate properly in literally one day?

...No?

Pics no. How bad do you think it is. Simple question.

You made the claim about diverting a plunge so an easy question.

I thought you might work in the sector and have insight. If it’s just throw away words forget about it. Just fluff on mn.

Anyway back to sensible I agree with Sunshine. Neither stories sound as if they hold much weight.

MarshaBradyo

Picsno. How bad do you think it is. Simple question.
You made the claim about diverting a plunge so an easy question.

I was responding to a PP, that even a slight delay to distater in dire times is better than no delay. After all, each delay is another chance to avert the disaster.

With regards to your rather assertive query - from the moment Rishi Sunak announced 330 billion (and rising) of emergency state aid, combined with lockdown, it was abundantly clear that this situation was financially nothing less than total fuckage.

If it helps, the official line is that it's set to be the worst financial crisis for 300 years. HTH.

Yes so the Oxford vaccine will be targeted at preventing ITU admissions, the most severely ill. I think Moderna’s one is targeting the elderly. There are a couple of protein based ones that might confer immunity against milder cases. We might need a multiplicity of vaccines to protect the world. And you are most likely looking at efficacy rates that are the same as the flu vaccine.
There are 78 vaccines in the trial process of which 7-8 are probably genuine long term contenders.

Chabishkoot apologies for my lack of understanding but does that mean the oxford vaccine would be just for high risk people ie the elderly, those with underlying health conditions to prevent them getting very ill?

We don’t know yet but that might be the population it works best for. Remember that Astra Zeneca will probably have capacity for a 100 million doses. So I assume those will have to be prioritised. Different vaccines use different technologies so may end up helping different sections of the population.
The Moderna data is not looking bad. And the Imperial vaccine has funding for a Phase 3 trial now.

BBC reporting today that the Oxford vaccine are moving into Phase 2 of their trial with older adults (over 55) and children now being included. Usual caveat that there is obviously no guarantee it will work but the process seems to be progressing well at least.

Great news!