Do you honestly think a successful COVID vaccine will happen within the next 18 months?

[DreamChaser23]

I feel that it is not guaranteed and this may be something that we have to be used to for many years to come..

Yes I do, in fact I think it will be quicker than that.
We don't need a vaccine for the common cold, it would be pointless to spend money developing one.

There was a vaccine in development for SARS but the spread stopped before it was completed so the process was shelved.

I think the current vaccines being developed are using the SARS one as a starter for 10.

It is happening much quicker as other drug development has been shelved for now, there's no waiting around for results before moving to the next stage & production is already happening despite results not being complete.

I'm pretty confident there will be one, but I think it'll be a while before I'm eligible unfortunately as I'm low risk

I’m far from being an anti-vaxer, but would you really give your healthy kids something so untested? There have been flu vaccines in the past that killed more than they saved - itd be a firm no from me...

No, very unlikely

We don't need a vaccine for the common cold, it would be pointless to spend money developing one

Beyond pointless as it would have been to continue to develop a vaccine for a disease that died out.

The other thing likely to happen is the virus becomes less dangerous as it evolves which is normally what happens with viruses. Right now it’s 0.05 percent fatality rate but heavily skewed to the elderly and those with underlying conditions, those not in those brackets have a much much lower fatality rate, as in a thousandth of a percent. It’s likely as the disease spreads it will evolve and become fairly benign.

It could be like the flu, which is much more deadly and unvaccinated has a ten percent death rate and we do have to vaccine against it annually.

From what I understand they were working on the SARS vaccine quite successfully but it was pulled when the outbreak was contained.

I think there will be a vaccine within 18 months.

I’m far from being an anti-vaxer, but would you really give your healthy kids something so untested

It won’t be untested 🤣

I’m far from being an anti-vaxer, but would you really give your healthy kids something so untested?

But that's not what the OP asked, the development of a vaccine doesn't equal compulsory vaccination, that's an odd leap to make. Regardless of whether I would take up the offer of vaccination I strongly hope that one is found for those who need or want it.

Yes. The scientists who work in that field seem confident and they know better than any of us lay folk (a point that's been nicely demonstrated by some of the grossly ignorant remarks on this very thread...)

I think there will be some sort of vaccine within that time scale. It doesn't necessarily need to give complete protection - even if it just reduces the likelihood of getting severe disease this could be of massive benefit while we wait for something better to come along.

I'm optimistic of one by the autumn.
There was all the SARS work and for the first time ever the search has been collaborative. Oxford are so optimistic they will know by mid June if it's worked and as they've already started production id imagine they will be ready to go shortly after
The USA are talking end of the year

I also hope some clinical trials will pave the way for successful treatments.

Right now it’s 0.05 percent fatality rate

@Bluntness100 can you link to where you're getting this figure?

I’d agree scientists are confident and these guys would not be saying they felt positive unless they were.

The lead of the oxford vaccine development was interviewed and she put it at eighty percent. They have already planned production so they don’t have to wait if proven successful. Human trials are under way and they are expecting the first results next month.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-vaccine-human-trial-results-oxford-university-a9513976.html

@Bluntness100 can you link to where you're getting this figure?

Why do people ask this. Stop being lazy and google it I’m not your personal assistant.

If you see a stat and want to know more info, then google is your friend.

I am not.

Colds are horrid and do in fact cost the economy in absences and loss of productivity. They also cost the health system in GP visits, and secondary infections. They might be "common", but they aren't necessarily mild.

Since there are over 200 viruses identified as causing "the common cold" (which doesn't really exist as a singular item) then finding a vaccine would be impossible anyway! The range of causes of colds, combined with the fact that they are usually very mild illnesses, makes investment in developing vaccines not worth the effort. That said, there actually are vaccines for some causes of cold, and we are probably close to having a vaccine for enteroviruses, some of which cause colds. Vaccinating against colds though tends to be a by-product of other research - some enteroviruses are a lot nastier than colds, and that is what scientists are focused on.

That said, of course, some coronaviruses are also the cause of common colds, and research previously done of those add to the body of knowledge being applied to vaccine development for Covid-19.

I think there is every reason to be optimistic. The Oxford project has repurposed the MERS vaccine that had already been developed and is currently in clinical trials in the Middle East. The monkey data is looking promising. They haven’t started from scratch on that project in the way a lot of people assume.

There are at least 3 other vaccine projects already in human trials and around another 100 projects in development.

Scaling up the manufacturing will be a challenge and is going to require significant international cooperation. Hopefully this will is there for that (again, I’m hopeful it will be).

There has never been a vaccine project with this level of cooperation and funding ever before so I don’t think you can compare it to what has happened in the past in terms of timescales etc. All bets are off on this one I reckon.

I have no idea!

There have been flu vaccines in the past that killed more than they saved

To my knowledge there has been one, in 1976 in the US. Testing has come long way since then.

I'm a biochemist and I'd bet my house there will be a vaccine within 18 months simply because we already have vaccines for this class of virus and the money going into this is huge.

What I would not bet on is how long immunity will last and whether everyone can get immunity from vaccination, but the worst case scenario is probably everyone needing an annual booster.

As per the link if successful oxford are saying September, for the first million doses.

Why do people ask this. Stop being lazy and google it I’m not your personal assistant.

yep that's definitely the reason that you won't post your evidence.

Let's face it, no one on this thread has a fucking clue.

google is your friend. I am not.

Stealing this 😂😂

Definitely. I have great faith in human ingenuity and adaptability. We are of course also selfish and violent and greedy. But yes I think we will have a vaccine in 12-18 months time

Why do people ask this. Stop being lazy and google it I’m not your personal assistant.

I think the point was that it can't be found on Google because it's inaccurate...

Right now it’s 0.05 percent fatality rate

No it isn't. The case fatality rate for the UK is currently around 14%. Of course the real figure will be more like 1% because we haven't been testing everyone; although final numbers will include estimates of the many deaths not picked up early on.

What you did is calculate a death rate for the epidemic; except you can't calculate a death rate until an epidemic is over. You are dividing by the whole population when most of them haven't had it.

yep that's definitely the reason that you won't post your evidence.

Bluntness divided the confirmed deaths by the whole population, as if the disease were to stop tomorrow and there had been no community deaths.