Do you honestly think a successful COVID vaccine will happen within the next 18 months?

[DreamChaser23]

I feel that it is not guaranteed and this may be something that we have to be used to for many years to come..

Re: the oxford trials

Both partners have agreed to operate on a not-for-profit basis for the duration of the coronavirus pandemic, with only the costs of production and distribution being covered. Oxford University and its spin-out company Vaccitech, who jointly have the rights to the platform technology used to develop the vaccine candidate, will receive no royalties from the vaccine during the pandemic. Any royalties the University subsequently receives from the vaccine will be reinvested directly back into medical research, including a new Pandemic Preparedness and Vaccine Research Centre. The centre is being developed in collaboration with AstraZeneca
www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-04-30-landmark-partnership-announced-development-covid-19-vaccine#

Obviously that’s just one trial (the one getting most of our attention at the moment I believe) but I believe there is a global consensus at the moment.

The only muttering of exclusivity I’ve seen were from Trump approaching a German firm to try and get exclusive rights for the USA. I think he was told to jog on. If anyone ring fences a vaccine I think they should be prosecuted for war crimes personally.

Really positive vaccine news on the daily briefing tonight. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Yes. I honestly believe it will.

Ooh, I missed the briefing, I'll go have a look.

Yes, definitely. I think the Oxford trials are going to be a success. Covid 19 is part of the SARS group of viruses which have already been in the vaccine research world. It’s not like with HIV where they had to start from scratch.

I think so yes. Scientist are typical very cautious in nature & will not be sure of a positive result from their experiments until they are fairly confident. Therefore, I certainly think the Oxford trials are hopeful, the scientist behind it seem surprisingly confident. If not that one, billions is being thrown at finding one across the global. We all have a very common interest!

How quickly it’ll be is debatable.

And on the subjects of colds.. one, they don’t kill you. They are a very minor illness. They mutate very quickly leaning a vaccine fairly pointless. And common colds are caused by various viruses, not just one. One being a type of coronavirus.

The reason we’ve never had coronavirus vaccines before us that they’ve been so deadly, they’ve wiped themselves out. This one is deadly only to the elderly & unwell on the whole, everyone else is getting fairly mild symptoms so it’s remaining very contagious!

The reason people keep asking you for a source is because you're spouting nonsense

Honestly you’re just embarrassing your self now. 🤣

The reason I’m not googling for people is because it pisses me off that folks can’t be arsed to looK. People slag you off with no evidence, can’t be arsed googling and then ask you to post the link To help them out.. Yeah, watch me go and be some clueless randomers secretary..

Take the discussion with me, I’m all up for it, but when the stats are so easily to find then go find them and come back at me.

Past that I’m not playing.

I've been arsed to look and I've not found a study that gives that IFR. However Gangelt in Germany is 0.36 and NYC was 0.86. What population are you referring to? Russia?

Sunshine what stood out to you as positive? I only heard the disclaimer part and missed it!

would you really want to put your trust in a vaccine that has only had (possibly) a few months of trials on human and/or animals?
think of the short/long term after effects
look at the flu vaccine, how many have reactions to it
would we need it every year like the flu vaccine
does it provide long term immunity
I dont think I would

Actually they just replayed some on the news re vaccine. So the big part is if it works, here’s hoping.

To me, the main limitation we face with a vaccine is the mass production of it once it’s developed.

I appreciate that we need a vaccine that works and that it’s not guaranteed we’ll achieve that. However, I think it’s really positive that funding is being put in place to mass produce the vaccine now and that facilities are being put in place to further mass produce a vaccine in the future. The new Oxford facility will be able to produce more than 120 million doses of a vaccine every year straight away.

If Oxford is successful (if, big if) to have 30 million doses by September (as they suggested might be possible today) would be fantastic.

We need to be putting all the infrastructure and funding in place now and not waiting until we have something that works before starting, waiting is what will cause the significant delays. It looks like they are at least going to attempt to front load the process and I think that’s good news.

No guarantees obviously!

It's clearly deliberate because every time someone points out a factual issue or reponds constructively he quote replies to a random bit of the post in order to try to sidestep discussing the falsehood.

People who think they are right don't do this- because they don't understand how they are wrong.

Yes, you're spot on - and it's blatantly obvious now!

It is great news to have that in place I agree. Feels like such a huge thing, work or not work. Could be really good.

Yes I think there is a good chance. One of the reasons there isn’t a successful vaccine for SARS is that it was contained and disappeared before it could be tested.

This means not only was it not needed but more significantly for coronavirus vaccine it was impossible to test whether it worked without there being cases.
MERS is being tested as well at the moment

If you look up the latest information on the Oxford Vaccine scientists are not optimistic. The latest monkey trials apparently showed low levels of neutralising antibodies and also viral infection in all vaccinated monkeys meaning this vaccine could not be used to prevent spread. At best I think it could possibly limit severe illness but I haven’t found one expert who thinks the result of the recent trial is good. It appears the Government is trying to instill confidence in the public with its rather skewed reporting of facts. Rather shocking to convey false hope.

I’ve read the pre print on the monkey data. I’m not a scientist so I’m not sure I’m understanding it 100% correctly but it seems to me that it entirely prevented the monkeys from developing pneumonia which is the element of COVID which is killing people.

It might not be a magic bullet to entirely stop the virus but if it stopped people dying and reduced it to a mild cold type virus for pretty much everyone that would be a significant improvement on our current position I would have thought?

Yes it will, it will be ready in some form for some people by September / October. The only thing is they don’t know how long the immunity will last - worse case scenario we all have to be re vaccinated annually. Oh well. I personally would take that.

The vaccine itself will be safe - it’s a variation on an existing, known to be safe vaccine.

The moment it is offer to me or my family I will be in the GP with my sleeve rolled up.

You mean this
<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/05/16/did-the-oxford-covid-vaccine-work-in-monkeys-not-really/amp/www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.093195" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2020/05/16/did-the-oxford-covid-vaccine-work-in-monkeys-not-really/amp/www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.093195

But I read the report
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.093195v1.full.pdf

And it seems more positive than Forbes

I think from what I’ve read the monkeys were challenged at peak immunity and mounted a pretty dismal antibody response which implies I think any prevention of severe disease likely to be short lived and given such a poor response in healthy fit monkeys perhaps unlikely to work at all in old/most at risk. That’s my understanding unfortunately. Who knows but I think it’s a definite move to get everyone back to work/school the way the U.K. vaccine possibilities have been spun.

Who knows but I think it’s a definite move to get everyone back to work/school the way the U.K. vaccine possibilities have been spun.

Well that'll backfire spectacularly with 80% of parents unhappy about sending their children back to school in June, I'm sure a good many will power on for that much longer if they are simply dangling the false promise of a vaccine.

What a rollercoaster of posts, will work or won’t.

But I agree on the idea that a vaccine promise doesn’t necessarily prompt school or work. People may choose to wait instead, well the former anyway.

The actual pre print report linked to above is reasonably positive. Anyway, time will tell.

If the government plan to entice people back to work with the false promise of a vaccine that seems like a pretty shit strategy to me? Won’t people just say “fine, if the vaccine is coming in September we’ll just stay where we are and keep the DC off until then?”

Why would thinking a vaccine is coming soon make people more likely to be happy to come out of lockdown?

Who knows but I think it’s a definite move to get everyone back to work/school the way the U.K. vaccine possibilities have been spun.

And prevent market confidence collapsing - not just here, but in countries around the world.

Economies worldwide desperately need a vaccine, and some existentially.

Also, whilst I would love Oxford to work because it’s the furthest along in the process it’s not the end of the world if it doesn’t. There are plenty of other candidates so plenty of other chances that one will. Just won’t be as fast unfortunately!