Do you honestly think a successful COVID vaccine will happen within the next 18 months?

[DreamChaser23]

I feel that it is not guaranteed and this may be something that we have to be used to for many years to come..

The point about animal coronavirus vaccines is to counter the myth that there has never been a vaccine developed for a coronavirus. Of course different species have different requirements but it all adds to the foundation of knowledge required to make a human vaccine. We’re already at the stage of human trials which will only because of existing research, mostly for SARS and MERS.

I’m fully aware they may not be successful but there’s every reason to be cautiously optimistic because they’re not starting from scratch.

My concern is the distribution of a vaccine and how strategic our government (and PHE) would be at utilising it. To me it seems that they need to get on top of antibody testing and identify the best strategic groups to target to limit spread of Corona virus. Once there are enough fire breaks (not even necessarily herd immunity) the spread could be slowed dramatically making it much more manageable.

@Cornettoninja

I agree. I’d like to see them using this time to conduct almost universal antibody screening. The test exists now and whilst I appreciate it will be a logistical challenge and expense it seems as though the information would give us the best chance of real progress.

What is happening with the R number in London being so much lower than the rest of the country is interesting. Is it due to some sort of pocket of herd immunity, the demographics (younger population), fewer care home numbers? Would be great to understand.

Vaccinating all hcp’s and care workers (to protect those in care homes) would seem to be an obvious first step but what then?

Yes. I work in big pharma.

The problem will be getting enough manufactured within a reasonable time, hence why multiple companies are working on it.

I'm an optimist and would like to think yes to a successful vaccine.

I'm not convinced though.

Honestly why do people do this? Do you have such a senior job in real life that people are there to do your bidding and make your life easy?

Because, while I'm pretty sure you are an idiot, I'm open to the possibility I'm wrong.

What you are saying makes no sense. You don't even seem to understand the difference between 0.5% and 0.05%, or between a CFR and a death rate, or how to calculate death rate.

Lots of studies show CFRs IRO of 0.5% one showing 0.05% would be really important.

@Sunshinegirl82 I read a really interesting discussion about an article (not peer reviewed or remotely credible as more than a theory at the moment) about coronaviruses which cause the common cold.

Apparently we encounter something like four or five coronavirus cold causing viruses in our lifetimes (other colds being caused by rhino viruses and other bugs) each with time limited immunities (a couple of years seems to be the average). Children and parents are the groups that encounter these the most because, well snotty kids

The theory is that some areas will have had another coronavirus recently and this is providing them with a level of protection due to immunity that’s still active from a different coronavirus since their immune system is still primed to tackle a similar virus. It also offers some explanation why the elderly may be more susceptible as their exposure to hordes of manky kids is limited so their immune systems don’t have any recent exposure.

Again, this isn’t in any way credible as more than an interesting perspective but there is a lot of work going into looking at anomalies and why they’re happening.

@ChaBishkoot

Can I ask what you mean by this
The Oxford monkey data is...okay. It’s not as good as they had hoped for but it’s not terrible.

I was under the impression that the vaccine basically worked in the monkeys, is this not true?

First a vaccine has to be developed. Then it has to be trialled. There have been serious errors when short cuts on testing has happened. The correct dosage has to be calculated. Then finally, has to be manufactured, in enough quantities. ( I missed out licensing, which I assume is part of the testing).
So, at least a couple of years, probably more!

Ok let’s argue over half a percent, I’ll bite

I think you're a factor of ten out.

There's research putting the IFRs in the 0.36-0.86 range from Germany and NYC but I've not seen anything as low as that.

What reallybadidea said. Yes I think there will be something that is worth giving to people, at least the high risk (frontline workers and shielders) within that time. It may not be the eventual vaccine that becomes part of our lives in the future.

I went into the UK vaccine trial but have been chucked off because I have antibodies. It's a very impressive operation - not in glamour but in sheer scale.

@milveycrohn

But there are trials underway now. Several vaccine candidates are already in
Phase 2 human trials with results expected in the next month or so for some.

Is this what you're referring to @Bluntness100?

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1168361

This refers to death rates of 0.5% or 0.4% in Germany but I can't find a reference to 0.05% or 0.04% anywhere, having searched for it this morning.

I was under the impression that the vaccine basically worked in the monkeys, is this not true?

Iirc, the data indicated lower penentrance into the lungs. It remains to be seen what this would mean for severity of illness/death rates and whether there would even be equivalent protection in humans.

If there is less penentrance to the lungs, reading between the lines, the trial subjects were still able to be infected post vaccination and there was still some penentrance to the lungs.

@Bluntness100 The reason people keep asking you for a source is because you're spouting nonsense (as I've already pointed out). And frankly, you do it so frequently that I'm beginning to wonder if it's deliberate - especially given your refusal to back up any of your "facts" with sources.

you do it so frequently that I'm beginning to wonder if it's deliberate

It's clearly deliberate because every time someone points out a factual issue or reponds constructively he quote replies to a random bit of the post in order to try to sidestep discussing the falsehood.

People who think they are right don't do this- because they don't understand how they are wrong.

No, and I'm anti-antivaxers and would vaccinate myself, however the Kawasaki-type syndrome in some children suspected to be related to the immune response to covid would make me think twice about vaccinating DC, at least for the first 12 months or so of it being available. I'd need some very compelling evidence that vaccination couldn't cause the same syndrome for DC to be early adopters.

Very possible we will have one approved by then but widely available? No.

I think it is possible. But would I want a vaccine that has been created in record time and doesn't have any longitudal studies? Probably not (I am not from the anti vaxer camp - DC are fully vaccinated).

For anyone interested this is an article reviewing the results of the human trials for the vaccine for MERS that oxford have used as their base
www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30160-2/fulltext

Does anyone know how licensing, patents and intellectual property will work?
If say Roche in Switzerland develop a vaccine the whole world will want it.

I would say I’m about 99% confident there will be at least one effective vaccine available within 18 months and probably more than one.

Getting everyone vaccinated is another matter - but seeing as we manage to vaccinate about a third of the population against flu over the course of about four months every year, we should be able to ramp it up and get everyone who wants it vaccinated in less than a year.

@Disquieted1 the only source I could provide is Reddit but from what I’m reading there seems to be a universal goal to manufacture and distribute as widely as possible as quick as possible so various institutions are committed to collaborating and sharing their research.

The general feeling I’m getting is that this is about the prestige (and a Nobel prize) rather than primarily financial, although I’m certain someone somewhere will be making a lot of money.

It’s in everyone’s interest to protect their revenue streams. No point in producing pharmaceuticals that no one can afford because society has been decimated.

Let's hope so. One would hope that in the event of a pandemic all thoughts about patents etc would be set aside.
No doubt you are right though: some people will find a way to make one hell of a lot of money.