To be worried about winter...

[Derbygerbil]

Various people have said: “it won’t get back to normal until December time”... Isn’t winter when it risks getting a whole load worse? If things do improve over the summer as I have expect they will, and bars and cinemas open again by the autumn, people will have be in no mood to resume social distancing in the run up to Christmas, we’ll be in confined spaces as the weather gets cold, the economy won’t allow for more furloughing, and the virus could well reinvigorate like the flu as the days shorten.... Or am I being too gloomy?

yup. It will be far worse in January 2021... unless we get a vaccine AND most vulnerable people have had the vaccine. December 2021 is a better guess for 'Normal'.

Or maybe the appetite for Lockdown is indeed SO Strong that the public will stomach it & truly eradicate the virus from Britain by December 2020. Right now I could go for that scenario, too. Requires almost all foreign travel to stop, of course. And great sniffer dogs in the airports.

Or am I being too gloomy?

I think you're being realistic.
My guess is that we open up for the 2nd or 3rd wave in summer, to be locked down again for winter to reduce the dual impact of coronavirus and seasonal flu on the NHS. Which seems so dire, as we wont even be able to go out to socialise at cafes, malls, friends houses and venues, just stuck at home (some being tiny 5th floor apartments), with cold wet walks and cold wet queues at the supermarket.

I may swim for Calais.

I think it’s inevitable that we will be staying home for most of the winter. I can’t see us back doing the normal stuff. I actually like winter do don’t think it will be too bad

The thing with winter is you've got your typical flu season anyway and other viruses doing the rounds and that's in a good year.

If you combine that with people who've been putting off treatment and this virus likely doing the rounds it's not going to be pleasant. Remains to be seen if the likes of the Christmas markets go ahead or shops are having to comply with social distancing. Can you imagine it the week before Christmas.

I think we’ll lockdown again in October/November until February. This winter will be horrible.
Get your stocks and Christmas presents sorted ASAP

So not much to look forward to at Christmas then, no family round and presents delivered by Amazon. No one will be doing large Christmas food shops as there will only be the usual household to feed

Exclusive: Second more deadly wave of coronavirus 'to hit Europe this winter'
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/16/second-wave-coronavirus-europe-winter-uk

I am very tempted to put us all on isolation by 10th December so we can actually spend Christmas Day together safely.
I am happy to buy Christmas dinner in November and freeze it plus deliveries.
I am happy to stay off work and DS and DH also.
The thought of spending Christmas Day without my patients is heartbreaking.

Parents
I can easily live without my patients!

Good grief, my entire family live in Kent and I live in north wales. There’s just no hope of me seeing my family this year is there

Yes I agree, I think we're in for a horrible autumn/winter.
I'm hoping that if we have a competent test, track and trace then we may avoid a second lockdown. I'm hoping they'll do the antibodies test soon then we'll have more of an idea about things. Maybe a vaccine by the end of the year which then needs to be rolled out to nearly 70m people, that's going to take time. I don't think we'll be seeing normality until the middle of next year.
Quick question about the Nightingales. Are they now going to be just for Covid patients and the hospitals remain for usual NHS patients? If so that's a lot of capacity, how many people are they expecting to have Covid complications as the year goes on?

oh dont.I get so depressed in the winter.I fear you are right though.Sounds dreadful.

Get your copious quantities of intoxicants sorted ASAP

Fixed that for you Chrisinthemorning

If this carries on that long I don’t know how I will cope. I live in a small flat with no garden and I am in the extremely vulnerable group. We live on a main road in central london so I can’t really go outside at all while maintaining social distancing. As it is, I haven’t been outside since end of February apart from to go to the hospital. I can’t even begin to imagine how I will cope for a whole year without leaving my flat or seeing any friends or family. I have complex immune problems which mean I may be non responsive to any vaccine, so I guess I will be isolating right until the end.

I doubt there will be any middle ground it will either be all nearly back to normal and a distant memory or the stuff of nightmares and a really bad 2nd wave.

I agree with the above couple of posters - either we’ll have it under control by treatment/track and trace or things will go to hell in a hand basket. I’m not sure I can see a lockdown to the same extent though because places will have social distancing measures in place already so it will be possible to keep a lot more things operating safely. Not only that, we simply won’t be able to afford to lockdown like we just have again.

Haha I already have vast quantities of intoxicants in my stocks!
I need more Lego though.

Oh the posters saying it might be more normal by Dec are giving me hope. Please God. I cant face this much longer. The loneliness.

That's right..look on the bright side. Loving the optimism

I'm thinking about taking the children back to Australia for a few months over Christmas. If we can get there we would (under current rules) have to quarantine for two weeks, but then could just hang with my Mum and family for the summer there. We've done pretty well so far but only because the weather has been decent. Not sure I can face months of winter locked in the flat tbh.

NotAnotherUserNumber

@Derbygerbil

I think you're being realistic. Unfortunately.

I think 'Hope for the best, prepare for the worst' is our collective 'BestOption'

@Deelish75

Quick question about the Nightingales. Are they now going to be just for Covid patients and the hospitals remain for usual NHS patients? If so that's a lot of capacity, how many people are they expecting to have Covid complications as the year goes on?

No. They've 'mothballed' the London one, but it'll be there if we need it (pray not). Some haven't even (yet) opened & his let's hope they don't. I guess as Covid-19 isn't going anywhere in a hurry they'll keep be expecting hospital to have Covid & non Covid wards/icu's. Maybe buying out some of the private hospitals they're using right now?! Nightingale Exel is hopefully just far too big to house only Covid patients and in time, will go back to being a 'venue'.

@NotAnotherUserNumber

🤗 I'm so sorry that sounds very difficult x
I presume you're in the shielded group? Even so, it's your choice-you can go out if you want/need to. Is there somewhere really deserted you could drive/get driven to, just to get some fresh air/see the outside world? It's a risk, but should be extremely tiny.