To be worried about winter...

[Derbygerbil]

Various people have said: “it won’t get back to normal until December time”... Isn’t winter when it risks getting a whole load worse? If things do improve over the summer as I have expect they will, and bars and cinemas open again by the autumn, people will have be in no mood to resume social distancing in the run up to Christmas, we’ll be in confined spaces as the weather gets cold, the economy won’t allow for more furloughing, and the virus could well reinvigorate like the flu as the days shorten.... Or am I being too gloomy?

I've already decided that if its bad in December and we have to be locked down again that we as a family will be totally isolating from the 10th December so we can see my parents on Christmas day.

@BestOption yes I am shielding. Unfortunately we don’t have a car, but have been looking into whether it would be possible to hire one to do this, but I am not sure if we can arrange it.

I am guessing that there are probably others in the same situation as me, especially in London as so many of us live in flats in crowded areas and don’t have access to cars and gardens.

I think eventually I will decide that it has to be worth the risk to go out as I won’t be able to keep it up.

Yes I agree.

I think the loosening of restrictions will have an impact that will see us in full lockdown by the autumn, lasting over the winter as NHS won't be able to cope otherwise.

Then release, and final wave of infections in Spring 2021. Fingers crossed that's the end of it but I may be being too optimistic.

God this is a depressing thread I wish I’d never read it.
We live in Yorkshire and my parents live in Essex, at this rate I won’t see them until summer 2021 when my DS is almost 3! (He’s 18 months now) 😢

So those of you who think it will be back to almost normal by December (and I very much hope you're right & I'm wrong on that) -- what will ''almost normal' look like?

My idea of what I could put up with that is my idea of almost normal

mass gatherings still banned
many people still urged (made) to work from home
many people still urged to minimise public transport
click and collect still heavily encouraged
international flights still very difficult, quarantining each end, maybe hideously expensive
You can get a hair cut without anyone wearing a face covering
dentists do fillings
face coverings aren't compulsory anywhere
restaurants may have to impose half capacity to achieve physical gaps
supermarkets still make people Q in and out, with 2m spots on floors
most kids are in school most of the time
most university students are going to live lectures most of the time
NHS can do routine services for most people, but waits are very very long (like 3x longer than current targets)
Gatherings in private homes up to 12 people for Christmas will be allowed

Is that what you guys mean by 'almost normal': or what is too much to hope for?

If the govt actually acted on their talk of 'test and trace', quarantined people entering the UK for 14 days, kept emphasising practical containment measures (where have all the 'wash your hands' messages gone?), implemented localised lock downs where there were hot spots, and really got on top of early treatment with oxygen, a second wave could be much less fatal.

It would make sense for capacity for this to be built up over the summer, when viruses don't spread as easily and people tend to recover more quickly, and be really proactive about the challenges going into autumn. Also, for wearing masks to become standard practice and supplies of PPE built up.

This would make us most of us less worried about winter.

I think realistically ‘they’ would release any lockdown for, say, 3/4 weeks over Christmas because people just wouldn’t do it. I think we will see a return to something approximating normal for the school holidays, largely because they’ll want a boost to the economy via U.K. internal tourism, possibly into September too. Then if (when) there’s a second wave, it’ll be a harder lockdown than this one until beginning of December, and possibly a smaller one from 27/28 December to stop NYE gatherings.

@Thewheelsonthebus23 No one has any idea what is going to happen, don't take it as gospel.

This is the most depressing thread I’ve ever read. I think some people are actually enjoying this dystopian world. If there is a second ‘wave’ I don’t think we’ll lock down agai. Other countries have shown that there is a better way to do it. Protect the vulnerable, let the rest of us get on with it in a sensible fashion.

I'm trying to get through this one day at a time.
I can't think that far ahead. That being said, I do agree with the more optimistic posters on the board.
I did have a sob-fest last night, tipped off by various Things Gone Wrong yesterday, but made so much worse by catastrophizing Christmas.
And realized...
Mm go-to knee jerk is catastrophizing. Why? Because projecting the absolute worst possible situation gives me a sense of control.
It's madness and such a thief of present joy (e.g. "I'm going to imagine this (event) as so dire, there is no way I will be sidelined/devastated/grieved when (event) turns out to be (just that) dire!")
See? Not helpful. Newly committed to not spreading it around - because it's a product of sloppy thinking and it sucks.

*My go to...

want a boost to the economy via U.K. internal tourism

I cannot imagine any tourism until 90% of the vulnerable & HCPs have been vaccinated. Lake District, Peaks, Norfolk, Dorset... all loud voices screeching for tourists to stay away right now. Come December the weather is pretty awful to go be a tourist anywhere if all the cozy indoor places are shut. So maybe we could have tourism in summer 2021... maybe Easter 2021 at earliest? But October half term 2021 is my prediction for actual earliest tourism-as-normal point.

Well there really isn't much we can do about it other than follow the guidelines/advice and see what happens.

It is very likely we will be in full lockdown over much of winter as COVID -19 will still be around and so will flu so there will be more chance over NHS getting stuffed.

I don't mind sacrificing one or two Christmas celebrations in order to keep my family safe in the long run.

I think some people are actually enjoying this dystopian world.

Of course they are. They're dementors. Determined to suck what joy there is left out of life and promote their agenda of doom and gloom.

I so hope things are ok by Christmas. DS is prime Christmas age and we have a holiday booked with the ILs (UK) for it and after a cancelled summer holiday I really want to give him a magical family Christmas.

@Rainbow12e any further reason behind your believe or are you just going to repeat it over and over again

However I will be realistic and ensure that we have presents and food in in plenty of time and go crazy with decorating the house if we can't see family.

I am more worried about a no deal exit from the Brexit transition, than another wave of covid. Of course if we get both... (not envy)

I don't think the government will have any more money left for a lock down over winter. They will probably just tell people to be alert, stay home if they can and everyone go about their merry business

@Thewheelsonthebus23

"God this is a depressing thread sad I wish I’d never read it.
We live in Yorkshire and my parents live in Essex, at this rate I won’t see them until summer 2021 when my DS is almost 3! (He’s 18 months now)"
Can't you go and see them now?

I'm looking forward to our annual family trip to the panto. Oh no, hang on wait...