We'll find out if there will be a second peak soon and that's what the government intended by changing the rules/ slogan.

[cantdothisnow1]

I've just walked through the park near our house and almost no one is complying with social distancing rules, I've seen today.

Big groups of teenagers and young adults drinking and smoking and sunbathing.

Adult friends sitting together on benches letting their kids hug each other.

So many people out walking that it is almost impossible to socially distance without getting run over.

Multigenerational groups, grandparents, parents and children ignoring social distancing.

I am sure that the government is trying to force the second peak early summer, if it comes I don't think the schools' will be having kids back in June.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-14-May-2020-2.xlsx

apologies, I didn't see your additional post.

The government know that 20% of the population were not following the original guidelines so this is not going to be a surprise to them. They will also know, unless they are out of touch, that people will not understand why it is OK to work with colleagues but not see your family and that some people will be bored of lockdown.

It is not a stretch therefore to know that this along a rather vague message of 'stay alert' would potentially result in higher spread of infection.

The messaging is utterly contradictory, whether by design or stupidity. Relaxing lockdown at the same time as you advise people to wear masks, for instance.

Coming from living in a country on total lockdown I think it's insane what the UK have done. We have 6000 cases here and 180 deaths in total - no new deaths reported in the past 3 days and we are still in lockdown.

@Expat30 what's the end goal though. If a vaccine takes 2 years, you can't lockdown every time cases increase to 6000 again. Its unsustainable. Track and trace might be successful over that timescale possibly, but lockdown isn't. And if there isn't a vaccine at all, its even less possible.

@Mulhollandmagoo
Intergenerational groups and groups of teenagers meeting up in parks is not the work of the government trying to force a second peak, we were told we can meet one other person outside of our household providing we stay 2m apart. This is members of the public not following the advise which will cause a second peak.

The government were encouraging street parties and celebrations on Friday. Hardly sets an example for teenagers to stay inside and not see their friends, does it?

How was the government encouraging street partiesL

People won't understand why they can't see their family but can't go to work

Perhaps the government are crediting the public with a certain amount of common sense?

( if the priority is to protect lives and the NHS we need to keep R low, but we also need to keep the economy alive to save jobs, the economy , future lives, so we let people work but not interact with friends and family as that reduces the number of people we are interacting with and so reducing R. We could do it the other way round, see family but not work, but that's only an option for the well off )

Of course. Those going back to work and kids in school is to provide the next peak before Autumn/winter and flu season.
I'd imagine they'll be a huge increase over the summer holidays.
Didn't Boris say 80% of the population contracting it before xmas.
So that would be 55k dead by then as he said the aim was for 1% dead.

attackedbycritters

Save the NHS has been removed from the slogan.

As I mentioned upthread there was no need to add unlimited exercise and driving to the relaxed criteria. People going to the park or driving to tourist spots will not save the economy.

Also where is the common sense in the fact that i may engage a nanny or cleaner but I may not use grandparent care if I go to work. The new regulations do not make much sense really. Particularly if you are working class.

Didn't Boris say 80% of the population contracting it before xmas. So that would be 55K dead by then as he said the aim was for 1% dead.

Well he's vastly underestimated that figure given that there are already 50,000 excess deaths in May!

I suppose it’s a big ask to give only for work but no other feeling of relaxation of rules. People are grumbling already and it’s a bit - give a little to get another benefit.

And if people actually stick to the relaxed rules the effect wouldn’t be that big.

I thought it was in the 30's what do you mean?

I agree op I went to the park today and was gobsmacked at the number of people in the park sitting together, clearly from different households. And in one of the closed off sections, it felt like a playground as so many families had brought toys for their kids to play around. Was so hard to explain to DS why we couldn't join in

I went out for my walk last night as usual. So many teenagers on bikes cycling together. Really annoying as they were taking over the pavement on both sides and I had to walk in the middle of the road to distance from both sides. Normally I’d see zero teenagers alone (only walking with a parent). Yesterday I saw maybe 10 on a 30 minute walk.

Today I took my children for a walk. Soooooo many families sat down together in the park, letting the kids play together, quite obviously multiple households who had arranged to meet. Very little distancing.

I’m glad in a way as I don’t want my child to go back to school on 1st June and by the looks of things they won’t be.

Of course we have passed the peak... When we were orgionlaly getting 4/5k cases a day we were barely testing now its between 80k and 100k tests and it's a similar figure! Just means that during the peak it was likely around 30k cases a day we were getting!

Delvesko the 50,000 is the excess deaths reported by Office of National Statistics since the start of the pandemic. It is higher than the official government reported deaths. Some of the deaths (but not all of the difference between 30 - 50) will not be directly covid but collateral damage such as lack of treatment for cancer, people not going to hospital on time with heart attacks/ strokes.

This article explains - www.ft.com/content/40fc8904-febf-4a66-8d1c-ea3e48bbc034

Meh. When would you prefer the next wave? The option of not having one isn't on the cards any more, so you can choose summer, autumn or possibly as long off as winter. Summer next big wave followed by hopefully smaller waves over flu season makes more sense to me.

Everyone's still being very compliant where I am and no one I know is breaking the rules.
The NHS has coped (with Covid; obviously not with anything non-Covid) so the curve has been flattened, which was how lockdown was sold to us.
The lockdown in any event only needed around 75% compliance to work within its remit (which was not eradication). So there is allowance for people 'breaking the rules'. Not sure there is really any great cause for worry (well no more than there is cause to worry about anything else).

The nightingale hospitals are still being ‘built’ in some areas, and this hasnt stopped, so they are obviously preparing for another peak, or ‘just in case’ (wishful thinking)!

I’m in North London & it’s been busy today. We went for a walk at 3.30 past DCs school & the playground opposite was full (it’s been empty ever since lockdown started) & then we went to the park & there were so many groups sitting together, mainly mums & toddlers. Although it’s always been quite busy here!

Not like that in my area. Out everyday for exercise and people are social distancing.

East coast, seaside resort. Biking home from work today the parks are packed with groups of people,kids in the locked playground, gangs of teens on bikes. It's almost like a normal day.
Dreading how many people will visit the seafront this weekend.

Meh, when would you prefer the next wave

Of course a second peak / wave is inevitable but there are factors which reduce the overall number of deaths.

Surely everyone wants the overall number of deaths to be as low as possible?