We'll find out if there will be a second peak soon and that's what the government intended by changing the rules/ slogan.

[cantdothisnow1]

I've just walked through the park near our house and almost no one is complying with social distancing rules, I've seen today.

Big groups of teenagers and young adults drinking and smoking and sunbathing.

Adult friends sitting together on benches letting their kids hug each other.

So many people out walking that it is almost impossible to socially distance without getting run over.

Multigenerational groups, grandparents, parents and children ignoring social distancing.

I am sure that the government is trying to force the second peak early summer, if it comes I don't think the schools' will be having kids back in June.

Why wouldn't people want to acknowledge that this was a second peak? If there was any scientific basis for believing it then fair enough but there is none.

Whatever peak it is it doesn't mean that there can't be another peak in infections / deaths in the future.

@Givenupno

How many of those people do you think wouldn’t have died this winter anyway?

Well, over the 6 weeks to the beginning of May, there are 50,000 'excess deaths'

FIFTY THOUSAND more people died in that period, than in that period in the past 5 years

So, yeah, pretty much 50,000

Unless CV has mutated to be a lot more serious then I don't think the virus that people had over winter was CV.

There were no excess deaths for a starter.

50,000 excess deaths when 50,000 people haven't died here?

I have to say everyone seems to behaving around our area. I was incredibly surprised to see zero people on Sat at a park-where normally loads would be sat enjoying the sun. Yesterday I went for a walk and everyone was keeping their distance. I think the governmaent are hoping the majority behave, the other idiots are fine spreading it-that is what they are expecting and will be in their spreadsheets estimating deaths etc.

Coronabored

www.ft.com/content/40fc8904-febf-4a66-8d1c-ea3e48bbc034

yes there have been, total mortality across the pandemic in the UK was 50,979 2 days ago according to the Office of National Statistics.

@Hopeful201 seems very area dependent then, everywhere is pretty much looking like prelockdown around here.

@ incrediblysad, Yes i also understood it was 50,000 excess deaths.

www.ft.com/content/40fc8904-febf-4a66-8d1c-ea3e48bbc034

Can't see that link and can't find it anywhere else.

FIFTY THOUSAND more people died in that period, than in that period in the past 5 years

Compared to the rolling five year average. It’s pretty much the same figure of “excess deaths” January to May 2018 according to BBC news yesterday morning. That was a bad year for winter flu apparently but went largely unreported

2018 was the worst year for the flu in almost 50 years. The vaccine didn't work, and that coincided with the Beast from the East to result in huge amounts of excess deaths. Saying this year is normal by comparing it to 2018 is the height of cherry picking.

They should be honest about it then. Treating us like idiots isn't a good look.

Coronabored I'm not sure why you can't see the link, it works for me. It is a really useful article, perhaps google search it, it will be easy enough to find.

I think we possibly did have a peak in January/February, apparently the numbers of cases of deaths from flu and other seasonal illness was higher than year on year averages. I forget how many but it was reported as it was such a big increase.

The thing is, we can say for sure that certain people may not have been quite as forthcoming with info as we at first hoped. It's also the case a French doctor revisited 24 samples from December that were unexplained and found at least 2 confirmed CV19 cases from late December. Of course, at that point, we weren't given the full facts, the numbers or the high transmission rates of this. So it would be easy to assume or assign these numbers to existing illnesses.

I personally believe I had it. I had every single symptom. My DH had it less so, as did DD. DS who has asthma was on a course of his steroids at the advice of our GP as it went through us and others in our village, all linked to our pub. No one I'll enough to have passed away, thankfully, but one was hospitalised with "pneumonia" that baffled doctors. DS was hit with it and missed the first two weeks back of school in January but luckily and thank God, he was OK. But all of us had a heavy cough after the rest of our symptoms went until different bits of February, and I still, still, have wheeze and get worn out from the lightest exercise and am very worried hearing the experts now suggesting it leaves its mark on you depending on how bad it hits.
Even the WHO have said now this could easily take 5 years to being under control.
It's not hard to see both views- some people get on planes and travel here and there like the rest of us jump on a local bus. We are an international generation, flights can be picked up cheap enough.
Maybe we will reassess this, and start being more cautious in countries that aren't quite as careful as others (and yes, I would include us in that whilst we have this utterly ridiculous PM in).

The 50,000 deaths atm happened within a few weeks, not over 6 months
and they happened even with lockdown

Chris Whitty was warning hundreds of thousands could die if nothing were done .... which is why Boris suddenly decided on lockdown

It was also quite widely reported about how badly hospitals were coping that year. Here's a report from the time:

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/12/nhs-fears-worst-flu-season-history/

And another about patients dying in corridors...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-42572116

People all along have said, oh I saw people out death rates will go up. It didn’t happen....didn’t happen after easter...I’d bet it won’t happen after VE Day either

Not everyone needs to stick to it. You just need the majority to stick to it and the deaths will stay down

Where I am when I went shopping this morning, wasn’t very busy hardly anyone in the queue, social distancing inside, everyone was using the hand gel, drove past the park on my home everyone was sitting or playing away from the next person/group, I saw people chatting...from the end of drive ways. Here it’s working still!

I’ve worked 2 days this week and on both journeys home I’ve notice lots more people out, which is fine as they are allowed. The problem is most are not keeping 2m apart from each other. They are sharing benches and walking right next to each other. If the advice is right then these breaches will surely lead to an increase

there have been 19,000 excess deaths in care homes !

There was a nasty Influenza A strain that hit many people in December,
which some of them now think was Covid19

Recent studies in France & Spain say even with their high death toll only about 5% of the popularion have been infected so far

We won't know until whether it's 5% or 25%, until we have nationwide UK blood sampling and antibody tests

Looking at SARS, which had immunity for only a couple of years,
scientists have estimate COVID19 immunity could last 1-2 years, but probably not much longer

We don't know if mild cases of COVID19 or those without symptoms will even have any immunity

I am sure that the government is trying to force the second peak early summer, if it comes I don't think the schools' will be having kids back in June.

I take a slight change exception to this ☝️

Posted too soon.....

Intergenerational groups and groups of teenagers meeting up in parks is not the work of the government trying to force a second peak, we were told we can meet one other person outside of our household providing we stay 2m apart. This is members of the public not following the advise which will cause a second peak.

We must get to the point where we are responsible for our own actions.

The spread, or not, of this virus is in our hands.

Well not really. I mean yes we can all do our bit by continuing to adhere to social distancing but the government have told employers and schools to open so most people won't have a choice but to go back to work, many of those will have to use busy public transport to do so and employers were given no time to make necessary adjustments to ensure social distancing in the workplace. And of course it's just not possible in many jobs anyway

What do you take exception to exactly Mulhollandmagoo?