We'll find out if there will be a second peak soon and that's what the government intended by changing the rules/ slogan.

[cantdothisnow1]

I've just walked through the park near our house and almost no one is complying with social distancing rules, I've seen today.

Big groups of teenagers and young adults drinking and smoking and sunbathing.

Adult friends sitting together on benches letting their kids hug each other.

So many people out walking that it is almost impossible to socially distance without getting run over.

Multigenerational groups, grandparents, parents and children ignoring social distancing.

I am sure that the government is trying to force the second peak early summer, if it comes I don't think the schools' will be having kids back in June.

Didn't see any of this on my walk this morning. Everyone adhering to social distancing guidelines.

Then again, I didn't walk around with eyes eagerly peeled for 'flouters' just so I could run back to write an 'Outraged of Tunbridge Wells' type post on MN.

Will be I interesting to compare the figures to those in Scotland and Wales, countries with which we share a border but whose governments have acted differently.

MarshaBraydo

What does social distancing in parks have to do with the economy?

I guess 600 odd deaths a day

You do realise the figures released every day aren't the amount of people that have died in the previous 24 hours, right? Also a lot of people on here would love a second peak it seems. What do you propose everyone does OP?

Phone the police if there's big groups about. Bastards need dealing with.

relaxing restrictions while the r rate is still high is going to increase the rate of the virus whether people follow the rules to the letter or not.

This in relation to the economy. This is broader than following the rules as you say. Even if people follow them you think it’s too early. I’m not talking about parks if you want to stick to that but relaxing restrictions - work mostly.

Sandybval yes I do know it is not the number in 24 hours but 30,000+ deaths since the start of the epidemic in this country is horrific no matter how you spin it.

The infection rate is the one to look out for not the death rate but we can't look at that as we still have inadequate testing!

I don't want a second peak at all which is why I am despairing at what I've seen today in the park!

I feel like we're the only country aoming to actually have a second peak. The strategy everywhere else is to get cases as low as possible and keep them low via contact tracing. We just want everyone to get it and hope they actually will be immune... hope that works out and we don't become the pariah of the world.

@sv877 They're just panicking over the economy and want people back in work. That's why they've said you can go to work but you can't see your family.

The spread, or not, of this virus is in our hands.

MarshaBraydo I'm not sure I understand the point you are making? Can you explain how people flouting the rules in the parks benefits the economy.

The R rate will expand as a natural consequence of rules being relaxed around the economy and that is not something I object to, we have to get back to a new normal.

The R rate will expand quicker if people fail to follow social distancing rules. That is not a desirable expansion and will not assist the economy at all, in fact it may well cause a second lockdown if the R rate rises to sharply.

It was possible to relax rules relating to economy without changing the rules on exercise and travel.

I think we all need to realise this is what the government want

It doesn't make economic sense to not get the second wave started early.
It also is worth remembering the big part of the old slogan was "protect the NHS". That wasn't meant as protect the individual staff within said NHS, that much is abundantly clear as so many have died due to a lack of PPE or out of date PPE.
What they meant and what was voiced with the Zeitgeist slogan was "protect the NHS from being overwhelmed"

In other words, stop it being inundated with cases to the point we run out of staff, equipment and space. The nightingale hospitals in theory were a great idea. In practice, a PR stunt as they never had adequate staff numbers to man them.

Should the lockdown continue, it would of course hold off the second peak. However, if it holds it off too long, it could feasibly hit in October/November again and then peak at a time when the NHS already has to deal with existing flu, bronchitis and pneumonia season, along with the worried well.
If that happens, the NHS has voiced they would not be able to cope, Nightingale hospitals or not.

So, either we face the inevitable, which seems to be the case or we hope it does die back before winter, which is unlikely.

I think we will see a lot less police dealing with breaches, I've already experienced a change from Friday to last night, as they've been told to stand back. They had already lost control of lockdown in most places, they had said they didn't know the rules themselves anymore as it started out as essential shopping only then they allowed drive thru and B&Q to reopen and attract huge queues.

It is, without doubt, a quiet return to herd immunity.

I’m in the West Mids... not a small town though. We go to various parks every day in all areas around the west mids and Warwickshire, I have seen nothing like what you are saying though. If it was Bedworth or Nuneaton I might believe you lol!!!

WHO warning
'Countries should use this time wisely and start to strengthen public health systems as well as building capacity in hospitals, primary care and intensive care units'

Not Bedworth or Nuneaton but a very similar town in size and inhabitants!

@Jeffersona I don't think it is panic though. I think its strategic (whether its misguided or not). They could have locked down sooner and harder and got the numbers way lower by now, but they haven't. Although they claim herd immunity isn't the goal, I think it is, because longterm lockdown is impossible, contact tracing will be hard to nanage and isn't a long term solution either. They are clearly still hoping we get it in maneageable stages in case there's no vaccine imo.

Yes op I agree with you R will increase quicker if people don’t observe SD. But most of what has changed is to get work back which I’m ok with.

Yes probably a leap, not a point worth going on with tbh! I was considering what would most likely make R increase if people do follow the rules (as you mentioned) and if it’s worth it.

Im in the Northwest, local mayors have been stating that our R rate is not coming down and is much higher than London. They have been urging people to stay at home but the view of many is if they are back at work it must be safe now.
Last weekend was full of VE day parties.
I thought this was a terrible idea as soon as I saw it. Once the drink was flowing so were many of the people according to facebook posts.
Things are worst this week and if the weather is nice at the weekend I dread to think what will happen.
How bad will we look if we are the only country to get a huge second wave.
The government must be going for herd immunity by stealth, why else have Wales and Scotland stood their ground.
If we had held off for a few more weeks, we could have had a good chance of getting our numbers low and the virus under control.
History will look back on the last five years as the time when England lost the plot.

What if we are actually coming down the slope from the second peak? Perhaps the first, smaller peak was in Jan/Feb and ran as winter flu, beneath the radar. The antibody test will hold the answer to this.

yes I do know it is not the number in 24 hours but 30,000+ deaths since the start of the epidemic in this country is horrific no matter how you spin it.

How many of those people do you think wouldn’t have died this winter anyway?

user people weren't dying of Covid in Jan/ February though were they? People think they may have had it but it was most likely seasonal flu or another viral infection.

The association with a second peak not being in winter seems total nonsense to me as unless you lock down all winter when restrictions lift it will start to peak every time (maybe winter will be third or fourth or fifth peak). It will take years to reach herd immunity stage (if having it gives immunity).

Givenupno plenty. There have been figures on excess deaths and it's way higher than the 30,000+ in the official figures. It was reported at 47,000 last night, some obviously not covid but the collateral damage of covid.

I will admit that back in February/March I was one of the "this is all a big fuss about nothing" people, possibly even stupid enough to say things like "it's just a flu". I've revised my opinion since.

I am absolutely not gleefully looking for 'flouters' so I can write posts on MN, but I have noticed a massive rise in traffic, people, parties, socialising etc. in the last week or so. I've worked out of the house every day throughout this whole thing, so I have noticed the changes on the roads and other places. It isn't that I want a second wave, I mean who would? It is difficult when you (general you) try to do the right thing and protect yourself and your family and there are so many people who just don't give one single fuck. It's like trying to drive safely on a road when everyone else is driving at 90 blindfolded.

For context, I am in the north west, in Lancashire. Where we have (I think) the most cases in England at the minute. Maybe I am worrying unnecessarily because of that. Who knows.

user1471439240
I think exactly the same as you, that we have just had the 2nd peak.
Unfortunately not many want to acknowledge that this may very well be the case.