No point in lockdown anymore

[LifeMatters]

All my neighbours seem to think that we are in a paid staycation by the government and social distancing are out the door.
Everyone around where I live has friends and family over, are having picnics together on the grass in front of their flats, the roads are busier than ever.
It's crazy! There's no point in making this country suffer any more so better all let's just go to work and what happens happens.

People are taking advantage of the paid time off and not staying indoors. What is the point of this lockdown if people are not following it anymore?

My next door neighbors had friends and family over all this week...it's crazy.

Deaths numbers will always rise, we can't 'undead' folks.
The rate at which they are rising is currently falling... which is commonly believed to be a result of the lockdown measures.

But our lockdown is not a boolean thing. Some are staying home, some still working, some taking more risks, some taking less... but 'on the whole' we are massively reducing transmission rates through our actions. This is beyond any doubt.

Our problem now is the economy itself is a vital part of our healthcare (and other safety systems). We still need to pay nurses and doctors, build hospitals, if not right now, then next year, the year after, and every year... to do that, we need money.

And that is the crux of the matter. The balance between the lives we save today, and the longer term effects in the future.

People buying all their booze and snacks for street parties tomorrow DBML. Dreading it. Cases are going to rise in two weeks.

@ToffeeYoghurt
TornFromTheInside

I said this today... people have just given up. Roads ever busier. People everywhere and for VE Day where I live someone has organised a party all in one place with live music etc etc but reckons that's fine as we can social distance. I won't be going.

I think the government's got some real work on their hands...

They simply can't afford to keep paying the furlough wages. That could result in massive numbers of redundancies.
The need to tread so carefully on who to send back to work, and there are so many quirky circumstances to almost every job sector, that it will be difficult to be very specific about should go back to work and who shouldn't.

There's also the issue of PPE supplies being so scarce, that they run the risk of increasing demand for PPE and making it harder still for the NHS and careworkers etc.

If they open up restaurants on a reduced capacity, then countless restaurants won't be financially viable.

It is going to be really really difficult for any government to come up with a plan. There will be job losses, this is guaranteed. How many remains to be seen.

This was always going to be an issue... We have grown up for years and years having freedom and being proud about it... As much as its the right thing to do they can't expect people just to give up the freedom... It would never work because it has been drilled into us that freedom is what makes the country great...

The 'giving up' factor was part of the government's hesitation. They knew that folks had a finite period of time before they became bored, or frustrated, or worse still, started to resort to civil unrest (always a threat).

Our lockdown has actually been quite mild compared with a far more Draconian Spanish one. Regardless, folks are now starting to get restless.
Some folks who are self employed have probably held out as long as they can, but now have to try and earn some money. The same with some small businesses who have held out, but become more desperate.

I think this is at least part of the reason why we are seeing increased traffic.

I wonder with our relaxed lockdown.
Vertical do you think it's part of the problem? I wonder whether a stricter one like Spain, France, Italy, and other countries, had might've been easier for people to adhere to. Is this a case of you give people an inch they take a mile? Also it's perhaps more difficult for people because it's not really a lockdown. They're still able to get out and about so they find it harder to accept they can't do absolutely everything they want to do?

I'm grateful we're allowed out for exercise but is the compromise lockdown the right approach?

I also wonder whether furlough was too much? It might've been better to offer lower, perhaps 60%? It's difficult. Try to save more jobs with lower furlough amounts or risk higher job losses but better furlough rate? It's worth noting however much a struggle 60% would be it's still a lot more than our measly out of work benefits. Many including sick and disabled are still trying to manage on just £74 a week.

I suspect the government knew it might be legally tricky to put us in a very strict lockdown, and politically, it's probably easier to say 'we trust the nation to do the right thing'...

Sadly some employers are not good, and force th

oops.. and force their workforce to work when they probably shouldn't.

And of course, you do run the risk of creating a pressure cooker for civil unrest to break out.

On the whole, I think we've done 'ok' but no better than that. I have no evidence, but I suspect the virus had spread further than the government the government thought before they locked down. And if you remember the lockdown was almost in two stages.... the recommended working from home (for about a week or so) then got a lot firmer in their message... so we lost some time there. 1 week doesn't sound much, but it's huge in terms of repercussions down the line.

The house three down from me has had some friends and children over tonight. They aren't even trying to shy away from it. They sat in the middle of the garden, played loud music and spoke loudly all night. They arrived at 7:00 and there's still a few in the garden now at 11:00

They've also had teenage children over visiting them the last three days as they have to daughters

Did other countries pay furlough? I agree it may have been too generous and keeps getting extended

I think one of the easiest things to do is just double the prices in every cafe/bar/restaurant if they have to halve the capacity

People are still going to go out and pay it initially - you're only looking to do it for a while until a vaccine (or you hope for one)

You can then keep all the staff doing table service - no service at the bar

Yes, people May only go out for a couple of pints at £7 a pint but they will still go - there would be queues out the door for the chance to sit down with other humans around and have a seven quid beer!

And my local Indian restaurant is about £8 for a main course - I'd happily pay double and have an hour long sitting (so they could squeeze 3 sittings in)

There ARE workarounds

Did seem a little busier today but then people are starting to go back to work
Not sure furlough amount makes a difference to lockdown and I think it's right amount even loosing 20% of your wages has a huge impact
What we needed was bad weather this good weather has Meant people are going out mods but I would still say most are complying here and even those who are not fully haven't returned to normal

Where we are people are defo getting lockdown fatigue and beginning to bend rules. Most however are doing it, but tomorrow there's a street party .. all will be staying apart, but can see the kids all running wild..

They don't really have to double, but yes, increase the prices accordingly.

As things currently stand, it all seems utterly untested and a bit of an experiment. If we can monitor Italy, Spain etc then it might give is clues, but right now, we are not far enough behind them to learn and react in time.

Yep its seriously pissing me off to see almost all of my neighbours having family come round to their house for visits everyday and popping in to other neighbours houses, when I have stuck to the lockdown rules completely and haven't seen my mum in over 6 weeks. Seriously getting to the point of saying 'fuck it' and having her visit as she is completely alone and if were all being sent out to work to face the risk that comes with mingling with other people then I want to take the much lesser risk of our households mixing! From the supposed leak of the lockdown action plan it seems like households mixing is the last step, and I certainly can't not see my mum for another how many months!
There's no way I can stop my 2 year old from going within 2 meters of her- we just wouldn't be able to enforce that, so at the minute we obviously haven't seen her and I just feel like we're the only people actually abiding by the rules. I'm sure that's not the case but when everyone else you know seems to be bending the rules to fit them it's completely frustrating!

Canaries. See you in A&E IN 3 weeks time. No doubt with your Daily Fails.

Regarding the country can’t afford continuing furlough at 80%, is there not the argument that the govt can borrow more from the markets for a while longer? UK still has a good credit rating and interest is still low. And if we lift lockdown too soon and get a second peak soon this will cost even more money. In fact there is was an article written on 4 May saying, ‘ Historical evidence from the 1918 flu shows thatextending public health measures to prevent the spread of a virus does less economic damage in the long run than letting it ravage the entire population.

theconversation.com/amp/ending-lockdown-wont-save-the-economy-heres-how-the-government-can-aid-recovery-137553?__twitter_impression=true

@NinetyNineRedBalloonsGoBy, regarding the question why can’t we just shield those at higher risk - which is a lot - I believe it’s not so straightforward as that. People have to still look after the elderly and those who need to be more careful. If enough of the population get infected there is more of a chance they will pass it on to those at higher risk even with shielding. Prof Devi Sridhar’s, Professor of Global health refers to this in the attached screenshot.

Finally, I keep reading people say most of the population will have to get it, yet many experts are pointing out look to countries like Germany and S Korea who so far are keeping the spread low through excellent testing, tracing and quarantining. That would mean need to get the spread down further this month and continue to ramp up testing, tracing and quarantine p.

If 80% of the population get it, even if overall mortality rate is low it will mean a lot more deaths. Data is changing all the time but I saw today an estimate that only 10% of the population may have got got it so far, v possibly lower, a long way to go until 80%. The Financial Times estimates that 55,000 may have already died using ONS data and not govt figures of 30,000.

Finally, another two interesting tweets by Prof Devi Sridhar.

The problem with the lockdown in the UK is it is largely 'voluntary' compared with French, Italian or Spanish lockdown.

Most people are still distancing up here. Even if people stop to chat, they keep their distance.

My neighbour is a care worker, and to begin with i was pleasantly surprised by how seriously she and her family seemed to be taking it (people round here not being known for their compliance in things).

But now her husband has started saying things like 'Oh don't be stupid, you only get it from someone coughing all over you' when I remind my DS to keep 2m away. Today I saw him (male neighbour) talking over the fence - at much less than 2m - to the neighbour on his other side, who's a widower in his 80s who lives alone and whom I've seen going out to buy a paper every day! Quite a lot of other people about, including elderly, but I haven't seen any parties, family visits or similar, and people are mostly respecting the 2m in the shops. But I'm a bit wary about tomorrow and street parties.

I'm 52 and overweight. DH is 61with a health condition which isn't on the official list but IMO he's quite frail. DS is 11 next month. If DH and I were both to die, there's very little extended family who would be able to bring up DS and there would be a very strong possibility he would end up in care (and before anyone asks, our situation before he was born was very different to what it is now so we couldn't have planned for this). So I do find the whole 'relax the rules' movement rather scary I'm afraid.

Prof Devi Sridhar is right. I hope the government listens to her.

RTB I wonder if part of the problem is because it's not a proper lockdown here some people, used to doing whatever they want, find it harder to accept limiting themselves in any way. Tney still have quite a lot of freedom (compared to those countries) and perhaps that makes our semi lockdown seem less real. Because they can do quite a lot still, they won't accept they can't do absolutely everything they want to do.