Neil Ferguson - is this Too good to be true?

[LilacTree1]

Resigns after breaking the lockdown?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/exclusive-government-scientist-neil-ferguson-resigns-breaking/

Don not all scientists agree. They never do in no matter what field they are in. It's hardly a falsehood to look at Singapore keeping their schools open. Or Swedens approach.

Of course not. You will see my discussion of the factors affecting Sweden's approach above. Singapore's impressive response is why they have been able to keep school's open.

It is false to claim that the models are wrong- all the data so far has (sadly) been in line with the more dire possible outcomes. A model is only as good as it's input data, so balming him for early speculaive models about new illnesses being wrong is daft.

It's false to claim that Neil Ferguson is the reason the lockdown has occured- many other Scientists were suggesting that the UK was being lax and it would not have been long before the advice changed even if his model had not tipped the balance.

"She viewed the households as a single unit"

Oh dear. Does that mean we're all allowed to pick another household to go visit now then? What a stupid statement to have made, and he on presumed immunity. He effectively called the lockdown, I'm absolutely outraged at his hypocrisy and arrogance.

This is a massive blow for anyone pro-lockdown.

Well Dom is already on SAGE so I guess that makes him a scientist.

Staats even recorded an interview about coping with lockdown

www.buzzsprout.com/962143/3340858

This feels like a stitch up.

I do believe he saved lives. Many.

There is one thing from this:

The Government is placing a lot of faith in antibody tests - to see if you are immune to it.

If we are going to go after people who would test positive for the tests because they have had the disease, and tell them not to break lockdown rules, it kind of throws up lots of difficult questions about the point of such tests.

Will he and Mrs Staat be interviewed by police and fined? I think not.

He didn’t forecast getting caught out, which turns out to be as accurate as his other forecasts.

Hopefully this will be a catalyst for a swifter end to the draconian lick down

Don I suggest you read Venus' link from the Spectator. Interesting

I can answer some of the questions:

1-3. I'm not an epidemiologist so I am not qualified to say whether ferguson is good or bad at his job but I do know that many of the complaints about his work are misunderstanding what his initial Covid 19 model is for and the limitations of this type of model.

1. I think this is silly. There was clearly a very high level of uncertainty in the early days of BSE but the actual death numbers matched his (very uncertain) model.

1. Yes, lots.

1. None. The model works for any disease. I don't know the exact model he's using but the maths is not that complex so the algoritham being 13 years old is meaningless.

@Weetam68 I totally agree !

I'm pretty sure the reasons for N.F flouting lockdown rules will not be publically acknowledged. How can anyone who works for BJ show any kind of moral indignation about infidelity?

It is all very suspicious though. The timing, the breach of lockdown by someone who is is essence responsible for the lockdown?

I'm going to sit in a corner with my tinfoil hat and see how this one unfolds. It stinks!! That includes N.F himself who always seems to end up fudging the numbers

Nothing about this story sits right, but I've found the reliance on N.F and his models, questionable after reading a bit about him at the start of the pandemic.

StripeyLurcher

it wouldn't surprise me if he was found to have locked himself in a suitcase and strangled himself to death.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Neil Ferguson is just the figure head of sage. It’s fifty scientists. I don’t know why people keep saying this guy did x y or z. This guy didn’t. He is simply the spokesperson for a group of fifty scientists who work to create the advice. He is not a single contributor.

He apparantly had it so was immune, which indicates immunity is a thing and they know it. If there was any doubt, I don’t think this would have happened. I also suspect it means you can’t catch it twice, due to that immunity. He wasn’t seeing himself at risk.

However it is hypocritical. I do understand his reasoning though if he felt he was safe . And it puts her at risk her travelling if she was using public transport. If not, less so.

The key thing though is people have to stop thinking he is sage, he is not. He is just the spokesperson and one of fifty scientists, foot and mouth, swine flu, it was not him, it was sage, the group who developed the guidance together. Him going or not, doesn’t change anything, other than they are now 49 scientists and someone else will need to be the person who presents their findings to the government.

I find these medics and scientists so bloody arrogant

I already think this guy is a moron though

No he hasn’t publicly owned it. Seriously.

When I try to click on the Express link, it refuses to load & gets stuck on go.skimresources which is supposed to be a skimmer that actually the host website redirects from... so I can't look at all, basically.

Just me?

I have no idea what the Express article said.

Nor has he taken credit for it. Sage and imperial college are not just him. It’s a huge team, the modelling is done by many many scientists and analysts.

Nothing changes with Ferguson gone, another one of the 49 will simply take his place.

Where is the due diligence and peer review outside of Imperial

www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-12-global-impact-covid-19/

It looks like it had a lot of collaborators

The paper

www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-26-COVID19-Report-12.pdf

Then surely Don he should be asked the questions

By whom? If papers he wrote years ago were sceintifically flawed then that has almost certainly come out.

There should be no assumptions he is correct as 'we' think it is.

This is the misunderstanding. A model isn't going to be 'correct', it will be refined as more data comes in- that doesn't alter the model, just the data. If you'd asked me 6 weeks ago I'd have bet the imperial model's initial values would turn out to be pesimistic but the best data we have says they were slightly optimistic.

Where is the due diligence and peer review outside of Imperial?

Everywhere. It's been hugely discussed and analysed in epidemiology.

Also I really don't think you can answer for him unless you have your hands on the models

I'm not answering for him. I explained that I am unqualified to answer the first 3 questions in that spectator article in detail. The answers I gave are public record, it doesn't need NF to explain why they are daft questions.

@Walkingtohealth it doesn’t sound like you had much choice, I don’t think you broke lockdown, it sounds like it was an essential trip to give care to vulnerable. Perhaps next time go for a walk local then you are not in car and in such close proximity just in case.

If it wasn't for him the death rate would have been many many times what is it

This is so not true.