@BigChocFrenzy
“Macron, Merkel and most of the leaders in the world relied on their own scientists and predictions, who advised lockdown
They didn't lockdown because of a team at a London college
The rest of Europe locked down after taking fright at what was happening in Italy
Lockdown was a pause button, for doctors and scientists to learn more about COVID
and for the health services to be built up to handle the casualties.
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Italy was hit hard for multiple reasons and the scientific community/governments should have thoughtfully taken those reasons into account. Instead, they panicked and chose to instantly lockdown. An unwarranted draconian lockdown imposed on hundreds of millions of people.
This medical paper lists the reasons why we should not have followed Italy:
www.news-medical.net/news/20200407/Lessons-from-Italys-COVID-19-pandemic-underscore-the-need-for-more-research.aspx
Dr. Ioannidis, famous for his highly cited and debated publication "Why most published research findings are false" where he stated that a majority of modern biomedical operates in areas with low probability for true findings, recently warned about the potential harms of exaggerated information and subsequent non-evidence-based measures during COVID-10 pandemic.
From a global vantage point, he turned his eye to Italy, where together with Dr. Boccia and Dr. Ricciardi, they aimed to dissect contributing factors in the current medical and public health crisis. These experts have described four distinct determinants: demographics/concomitant diseases, case burden, health care system capacity, and stochastic factors.
....
Lessons for the world: apply with caution!
"In the absence of prevalence and incidence data," the authors warn, "it is difficult to predict the effects of specific major public health decisions, such as lockdowns, on the course of the COVID-19 pandemic".
Their reasoning is that lockdowns may actually result in people spending more time with elderly and susceptible individuals, and eventually just prepare the terrain for a new epidemic wave that will hit immediately after removing the measures.