It MIGHT have been here before Feb/March

[Whattodowhattodooo]

Just seen this tweet.

**A French Doctor has claimed that the virus was in France in December, a month before the first confirmed case.

Dr Cohen tested old blood samples for patients with respiratory symptoms and found a positive result.

This is worth investigating - it could be significant. - Prof Karol Sikora

Whilst it's France and not UK, I think the possibility should be investigated over here too. I am 99% sure my Dad had it beginning of January.

It’s recognised that there are several strains of COVID. Perhaps the Bristol cluster represented a marginally milder, less transmissable version of the one that came later?

It's like a conspiracy theory and it's not helpful.

A conspiracy theory requires conspiring. This is a theory speculating on the lack of conspiring - as in no one noticed.

It's a no-conspiring theory.

Coronavirus: Scientists identify more contagious mutant coronavirus strain sweeping Europe and US

And there you have it.

@newgirls
Watford hospital was the one that closed its A&E first! V close to warner bros studios Watford

And herts had a huge amount of cases first

I swear I had it in mid October. Couldn't speak without coughing at all, lost voice, went on for weeks ...

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/mutated-coronavirus-new-strain-contagious-virus-d614g-a9500526.html

This is interesting and makes me wonder if this is why people who were ill in Dec/jan etc were not as unwell so kept the death rate down

@ihatethecold very interesting indeed. Definitely follows the Spanish Flu line. Going to be watching this develop with interest.

I was supply teaching in a school for the last week of term in December and the first two weeks in January as I don’t get paid during the University holidays in my main job (as a University teacher).

At both the high school and the university I work at, there was a lot of unusual sickness with dry coughs that went on for months. Lots of students had tonsillitis as a result, in fact almost every student I taught. Staff were commenting on how there was a really horrible virus going around, much worse than usual, almost everyone had had it and it was very difficult to shake off.

I’d been terribly ill with flu the Christmas before for 6 weeks...completely unable to do anything, even watch TV...awful cough for weeks then tonsillitis and quinsy as a result despite having a tonsillectomy as a very young child (my scar tissue swelled up and became full of pus ). I thought they’d all had the same flu strain I’d had the year before as the symptoms were so similar. I did have a dry cough, body aches,
exhaustion etc in January of this year and kept feeling like I was trying to fight something off. I had to take time off from work and other commitments. I’d say I was only mildly ill.

My brother in another country was floored over Christmas with this illness and didn’t recover fully until the end of February. He was on antibiotics several times, steroids for his lungs. He’s in the risk bracket for Covid. He’s now on the frontline and hasn’t contracted it.

Interestingly, a woman in our local Facebook page posted some results that her child had whilst in hospital in December with pneumonia following the “virus” most people had been describing on a post with a similar title to this thread. Following blood test results, his diagnosis was “Pneumonia following Coronavirus”. He had tested positive for a Coronavirus...whether it was Covid-19 or another strain...who knows. But I think it’s quite possible it’s been here much earlier.

Russia. March 2019.

That link that ihatethecold put on is very interesting.

@AvalancheKit ??

So is this what we’ve just had the peak of the 2nd wave?

That would be a positive thing if so

This is why we want it discussed - could be positive news

I don’t understand why it isn’t bigger news to be honest.
Maybe investigations in the different labs is ongoing so nothing is being said until they have definitive evidence.

Unfortunately because the government have lost credibility with me I don’t trust that this won’t be ignored.

ihatethecold it's on Sky and the Beeb now too.

Is it positive though? If taken with the independant link of a new mutation that is now dominating, that would say that the new mutation is more dangerous than the old ones? Also would say that a vaccine might not even work once developed as it could have changed a lot more? And each wave could be worse than the last if its mutating and getting worse too.. I thought viruses mutated to LESS deadly forms? A science-y person told me that a month or so ago, as apparently a 'sucessful' virus is one that does not kill its host but infects as many as possible? Which sounds about right but might be wrong?

I would like to take it as good news. But it doesn't sound that way. Would bloody love some good news at the moment, seems to be all doom and gloom.

Good news would be, I guess, that even if you caught the old mutations you are immune to the new ones, so whilst it would get more deadly, the huge majority of the population would be immune by the time it was dangerous to most. Would also kind of say lockdwn was counterproductive though too (though our lockdown was for the NHS, not to save lives as such but to make sure deaths were spread out rather than in one go)

Am sure I read something a few days back, reserachers in South Korea saying that it looks like you are immune after catching it. Will try and hunt down in a sec. If thats true, then thats massively positive news, especially if thats across mutations also..would also mean a vaccine if/when its made would still work regardless.

as apparently a 'sucessful' virus is one that does not kill its host but infects as many as possible?

This virus has a potentially long incubation period, during which the host may be infectious, therefore there is less evolutionary pressure to become less deadly as significant spread has already occurred long before death.

With a long incubation/transmission period, luck increases as factor - just sheer bad luck of a more deadly mutation travelling and spreading more and becoming endemic.

Thanks picsinred. Thats unfortunate then, the 'fact' that what he said seemed about right was making me think even if it mutated, it would be less dangerous not more..so it was some 'good' new.

Think I might possibly have misread he south korea news too..when trying to find it again. Positive I read that some study there had found immunity after infection, but cannot find that, can only find

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scientists-conclude-people-cannot-be-infected-twice-11981721

From same timeframe.

In the future it could be possible that the coronavirus mutates and infects people who have previously overcome it, similarly to the flu.

Thats not good news either! Hopefully thats not the case, else we will have to have a new vaccine each year?

"Coronavirus 'reinfections' were false positives, says WHO technical lead"
www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/may/03/coronavirus-reinfections-were-false-positives-says-who-technical-lead-video
this maybe?

I had 'a nasty virus' in January. Had an incredibly sore throat which went on for three weeks, headaches, fever, ear ache, conjunctivitis and a dry cough. Everyone in my household had similar symptoms. If I had that now I'd be sure it was Corona.

@Thighmageddon

Thats good to know, did they give any idea if it was a solitary case or if they were going to investigate it further?

The official first recorded case was 31st Jan. www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m800

It would not surprise me at all if a milder version was circulating way before the death rate started spiking. I’m in inner London and in January my DC’s school was totally wiped out by a virus- almost the whole of year 6 was off at once which has never happened in all the years she’s been at school. The weird thing was that DD1 (and reportedly the others) would have high temp for a few days, then seem much better, then it would hit again. This seems highly symptomatic of Covid-19 to me. We were all unwell and I still have got a bit of a cough now. Interestingly our area of London has had a low rate of covid-19 in the official figures (I know lack of testing may play a part in this) but we are a highly populated, fairly deprived area and I was quite surprised that we weren’t hot harder. Would make total sense if we had suffered an early, milder wave.