It MIGHT have been here before Feb/March

[Whattodowhattodooo]

Just seen this tweet.

**A French Doctor has claimed that the virus was in France in December, a month before the first confirmed case.

Dr Cohen tested old blood samples for patients with respiratory symptoms and found a positive result.

This is worth investigating - it could be significant. - Prof Karol Sikora

Whilst it's France and not UK, I think the possibility should be investigated over here too. I am 99% sure my Dad had it beginning of January.

I would imagine they don't want us to know that Cv was in the UK long before they have acknowledged?

But this would be the fault of the Chinese Government if it was proven that it was here before they disclosed it in January. Lots of posters has symptoms consistent with COVID in December 19.

I saw a lady in her 20’s in my GP surgery in December, she was laying across the seating as she was too ill to sit up, she has the worse dry cough I’ve heard in my life and almost certainly had a temp as the sweat was pouring off her. The staff were looking concerned and appeared to be trying to get her in to the GP quicker although I’m not sure if it was because she was so poorly or because she was coughing germs all over the place.

Harvard Uni saying that satilite images taken in late 2018 with late 2019, show increased activity around Wuhan hospitals and search terms on the internet of Diarrhea, Coughing.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52975934

Dismissed by China as ridiculous.

Certainly the local GPs down here are convinced CV was circulating before Christmas.

An apparent surge in traffic outside Wuhan hospitals from August 2019 may suggest the coronavirus hit the area earlier than reported, a study say

Well, well, well.

October and November not looking so mad anymore, eh?

@jasjas1973 I came here to see if any threads had been started relating to that article.

Really interesting suggestion but I’m struggling to understand what that means globally.
We’re global deaths/hospital admissions higher towards the end of last year? If not, why did we only experience a global pandemic after March? Does this add weight to the suggestion that this was a man made virus?

I’m not sure what I believe anymore, it seems to have escalated quickly so seems he’s to believe it was transmitting globally undetected, but I can’t wrap my head around how countries that are easing lockdowns aren’t really seeing significant spikes again despite having taken different steps in lockdown and different ways of easing restrictions.

I know of course that distancing will have an effect on transmission rates but even so, we can’t have achieved herd immunity already surely? And why is a similar pattern happening globally when living conditions, approach to lockdown and healthcare systems vary so much.
Of course I know some places have been far worse affected than others, but speaking purely in terms of a pattern is there not a similarly?

I have a paramedic friend. She was very ill in early January. She’s now been tested as part of her role for antibodies and has come back positive. So either she had it early January or she didn’t have any symptoms later. I know which one I think is more likely!

My GP thinjs I had it in February I was ill for 3 weeks and I'm still feeling rotten now and my husband was so ill he for about 4 days late November and he was so tired in December we are pretty sure he had it first. He had what we now know are all the classic symptoms sweating fever coughing exhaustion he was in bed for days I thought man flu and ignored him tbh he has form I had very different symptoms though neither of us had any phlegm or snot but the biggest thing we both had was utter and complete exhaustion it was like walking through treacle I just couldn't breathe and now I think it was simply lack of oxygen.

I know that there are all sorts of bugs going around and that I could easily have picked up something else, but, at the risk of sounding unhinged, I wonder if I had this at the very end of last October.

I certainly had quite a lot of the symptoms others have talked about - dry cough, complete exhaustion (and a deep sense of despair), fever (with cold shivers), very bad acid reflux, pains in my joints, particularly in my back and under my shoulder blades and lots of pain under my ribs. I wasn’t wiped out completely, but i did feel very ill and I am someone who tends to shrug colds off when others are badly affected. It also lingered around for much longer than usual when I pick up a bug.

I commute into London and work in an environment where there are large numbers of people, including many from China. At the time I caught this bug, I had also been on a break to a city which had a high number of Chinese tourists. So if it was in China at an earlier stage than previously thought, there may have been people carrying it over here in October.

It’s all possibly wishful thinking on my part though.

I had the same in October @FallenMadonnawiththeBadBoobies ditto the acid reflux, which I never have. The pain in shoulder blades and ribs. Constant exhaustion. Lasted 6 weeks. But no cold symptoms like runny nose or sore throat.
I ended up going to the doctor and she gave me an inhaler which I was very surprised at.

Just assumed it was some kind of bug and I’m sure it was but you never know. Friends round here had similar for 6+ weeks too.

China in August. France in mid November....

I don’t know why deaths didn’t start to kick off until March. I do think there’s more immunity for whatever reason amongst the population than we think. Therefore it may have escalated in to exponential growth more slowly than we would predict?

If it was in China in August and they didn’t see deaths until Jan? We just need answers. This could change our understanding of the virus. The WHO is encouraging all countries to go back and check X-rays and samples..

A close friend is an ITU nurse, and she has told me that she treated someone with a SARS type infection in early January. They were all baffled, because the patient had a lot of SARS indicators, but they couldn't pin it down. They were ventilated and luckily pulled through. Now, they are saying that, after treating many positive Covid cases, they are convinced that this person had Covid 19.

Interesting, Delatron. I might take one of those antibodies tests to see if I’ve already had it.

@HolyMilkBoobiesBatman

Yes that has always bothered me, the theory is that the younger upwardly mobile healthy were the first to get CV outside of China and that the death tolls really started rising when european hospitals started moving the elderly into the care sector..
Germany didn't, they isolated the elderly for 14 days in the care home, so have a much lower death rate (apparently)
Also, the seasonal flu vaccine was particularly effective and less people died of flu which may have hidden any rise in deaths caused by CV, So who would have looked for a SARs type illness in a elderly patient at home, with Pneumonia in Nov/December?

Either way, i find it odd that despite the Roche antibody test, no one seems to be using it or publishing the data.

I just read an article that was in the express.I don't know how to share links.Basically it was saying it was here from Oct 6th and there was an increase in deaths in adults over 45 in week 45 which I is nov 8th around 1000.GPS were putting flu like illness as the reason as we didn't know about Covid.
The nurse I saw said I didn't have flu.Dished out 500 mg of strong antibiotics straight away and an inhaler.I would love to do an antibody test.It was the breathlessness that got me.

whatisforteamum there are a number of reports of hospitals seeing large numbers of what they assumed were flu patients and the end of the last year. I’ve also read (but cannot verify with a link) that actually last seasons flu vaccine was pretty effective so initially doctors would have just assumed a bad flu season and not connected the dots.

I had been thinking I had covid in late 2019 but have had a negative antibody test. Do you think there is any chance I could have had it without producing antibodies?

I had been thinking I had covid in late 2019 but have had a negative antibody test. Do you think there is any chance I could have had it without producing antibodies?

It is absolutely possible.

@iwantmysay why would the government not want us to know it was here as it would be no fault if there's as nobody knew of it then so they would not be at fault and infact could use it to their advantage as could say it was widespread before anyone knew so anything we have done isn't too late etc as it was already circulating , or something along that line . People seem to just accuse the goverment if something without actually thinking

I spoke to my gp yesterday and mentioned the virus I had in January and the symptoms that came with it. She said the timescales of symptoms fitted covid, and that it had been here longer than was originally thought.

I’m not sure whether to get an antibody test? I’ve heard it rises 4 weeks after infection then starts falling off. January is already 6 months ago, so by the time tests are rolled out it might be too late to detect any antibodies?

@strugglingwithdeciding Yes i wondered this too but came to a different conclusion.
A new virus in circulation say since November, yet all our monitoring and public health failed to spot it?

That then calls into question Johnson early response on CV or lack of, as if they did know and did nothing until 23rd March! WTF were they thinking?

Interesting article which also tackles the question of how it could have spread earlier undetected:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/spate-of-possible-uk-coronavirus-cases-from-2019-come-to-light

I think it’s interesting that the article says there was an increase in the death rate here versus a normal year just before Christmas, especially in the elderly. We had a very low year for flu deaths but I guess didn’t realise that at the time so no real anomalies showed up/ were masked?

I think as it’s a virus that is asymptomatic In 50% of cases and very mild in many others surely that makes it harder to spot? And gain traction? I’m just speculating but the death rate percentage is quite low and it is mainly over 80s so if it mainly hit the young and healthy first...

Even on the cruise ship with mainly elderly people, still many had no symptoms.

It’s such a strange virus that maybe the transmission pattern and exponential growth pattern is different to what we would expect/predict?

I hope we get more answers.

Ah brilliant article and it kind of backs up my speculation!

I’m no expert but I’m starting to think that undetected cases in the UK late last year could have been the ‘first wave’ and largely originating from imported cases from China.

If that was the case then potentially the cases emerging in February, March, and beyond have been the ‘second wave’ and mainly made up of a large number of cases imported from Europe due the ski season. It might explain why scientists are now discovering that the origins of cases from February onwards are largely from Europe.

That is one theory about the second wave. It would explain maybe why we aren’t seeing cases going up as other countries are coming out of lockdown. Have Italy and Spain been out for a month now. Plus Germany and France?

It’s been over a month now Delatron it was around 4th of May.

That’s positive. And they are mixing households inside too. Still no second wave.