It MIGHT have been here before Feb/March

[Whattodowhattodooo]

Just seen this tweet.

**A French Doctor has claimed that the virus was in France in December, a month before the first confirmed case.

Dr Cohen tested old blood samples for patients with respiratory symptoms and found a positive result.

This is worth investigating - it could be significant. - Prof Karol Sikora

Whilst it's France and not UK, I think the possibility should be investigated over here too. I am 99% sure my Dad had it beginning of January.

Will be ironic if it turns out the virus didn’t originate in China. Especially if it came from the USA (unlikely I know). I would just like the Chinese leader to have the opportunity to be on tv talking about “the American virus”.

Think about it logically - viruses spread like wildfire around Christmas because everyone is at Christmas parties and seeing friends and relatives that they don’t usually see.

No we're not. I didn't attend any Christmas parties or see any family other than in my own household. The only other people I was in contact with were those at work.

Not everyone is a social butterfly or has family they have any desire to see.

People can guess where / when they might have caught viruses. Experience symptoms and guess that they were covid and not other viruses or bacterial infections.

without testing none of us can know what these things were.

I had a viral infection last December that lasted a month. It was different from any other type I've normally suffer - no fever, but a dry cough, chest pain that lasted a month and couldn't shake off. I went to the doctors twice and he ended up giving me antibiotics (a no no for me) even if he thought it was viral.

Couple of weeks ago I had to see my doctor again and we had a small chat about it. I asked him if it was possible "my flu like" was Covid and he said he didn't know. Without a test, he had no idea whether it was Covid or not.

One of the reasons the virus slip under the radar in Spain was that traditionally January and February are peak for flu - by the time alarm bells rang, the virus had been introduced in the community for so many weeks, it was rampant.

We don't know how many people got the virus or just another cold/flu like virus, and at this point it doesn't matter. Hopefully when the pandemic is over, we will get the information and stats to understand what has happened and why.

There are so so many people who were ill over December January and February that I know of, it did seem more than normal. I myself felt absolutely rotten at the end of February. DH and I went away for a night and I ended up drinking lemsip in the hotel bar and going to bed early. I thought it was just a cold, and it probably was but it clung on for weeks and weeks. I was still ill when lockdown started.
Preschooler had a cough and sore throat before lockdown, toddler and DH came down with it after lockdown started. No fevers or cough for them though.
I kind of hope it was here early because hopefully that'd mean more people have already had it. I too can't understand why if it was here early how we'd not have had more deaths or serious illness sooner if it's as infectious as they say.

They've done two positive tests on thawed samples and found the covid lung pattern in x-rays as well. The paitent hadn't travelled but the thinking is wife who didn't get sick works in supermarket near airport where many go straight from flights from China.

That could be anyone here in London who has used the Piccadilly line in December.

North Italy has Chinese sweatshops staff by Chinese people, all flying in and out from Wuhan. That is why it started there. See article in The New Yorker dating back to 2018

I really hope that the French test results are taken seriously by the world and they investigate this and correct the start dates in each country if need be. I worry that the UK government will ignore it incase the public start asking too many questions.

Leckford - id heard that too

I really hope that the French test results are taken seriously by the world and they investigate this and correct the start dates in each country if need be.

I totally agree. We cannot manage this pandemic unless we know the facts and I'm tired of being fed bullshit charts and numbers that are clearly wrong. I don't expect the government to have all the answers but I'd rather "we don't know" than lies.

The care home question earlier is interesting.

Answers could be that residents were in/out hospital so brought it back with them

But I also think it’s a sign that it was more widespread than we realised which is why the Skye home made headline news.

Uk gov will try to cover up if it was here earlier as they failed to plan/act

If one elderly person, with no travel, died of this in France in late December, taking into account approximately 6 weeks from infection to death, they have likely caught it (in the community) mid November. If that's the case, that = community spread in that part of France in mid November.

Seems consistent with earlier European community circulation to me.

Remember the first few people who died here had no travel links and were spread across the country?

If one elderly person, with no travel, died of this in France

Is there another case? I've just found references to the 43-year-old man from Bobigny who recovered - wife had nothing kids had it mild.

I think they're suggesting other hospitals should test samples taken earlier and stored as that's how they found this one.

Sorry I havent read the whole thread, so dont know if someone had already mentioned this.

The virus was in the UK before February and March and this had always been documented.

The first 2 cases in the UK were confirmed as being in York. This was confirmed at the time on the 31st of January. Also it's now thought possible that this was the first human to human transmission in the UK because the woman visiting from Hubei probably gave it to her son, who was studying at York university, while in the UK

The woman from Hubei arrived in the UK on the 23rd of January and developed symptoms on the 26th. So presumably had been unaware that she might have been spreading the virus for at 3 days in York/UK.

From wikipedia
"On 31 January, two members of a family of Chinese nationals staying in a hotel in York, one of whom studied at the University of York, became the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK. Upon confirmation, they were transferred from Hull University Teaching Hospital to a specialist isolation facility, a designated High Consequence Infectious Diseases Unit in Newcastle upon Tyne.[6][490] The index case for the UK, a 50-year-old female who had travelled from Hubei province and entered the UK on 23 January, had developed fever and fatigue on 26 January. Her close household contact, a 23-year-old male student who had returned from Hubei province on 6 January, developed symptoms on 28 January, 22 days after his return and five days after the return of the index case."

I believe DS absolutely had it early Feb. A week of a high temp, his gp had us alternating Paracetamol and neurofen round the clock. After 3 weeks with the cough he was in hospital for chest xray and tests. He's diabetic and it knocked him for six. We were told it was a virus, sent home with a second course of antibiotics as a precaution and a blue inhaler.

Everyone else in the house then had a temp followed by a cough. Other DC had it mildly, DH and I couldn't climb the stairs with put puffing for breathe for weeks.

Thanks Flaxmeadow

If this is true then it’s clear it’s been around far longer than they initially said.
The Wuhan military games was in October- a quite possible hot bed to spread a virus like this

18.1 million people entered the UK borders from the outbreak recorded in Wuhan until UK lockdown of which 253 only quarantined.
That is a huge amount of possible non symptomatic spreaders travelling to the whole of the UK.
Add into that the hotspots are also the locations of universities with highest amount of international students.
I put forward a theory on a similar thread which was shot down in flames that,
Fitter more mobile people able to travel long distances, holiday, working age were the initial spreaders.
Socio economics would also play a small part in this.
For example a business person travelling for work abroad is unlikely to be a minimum wage worker in most cases.
Therefore more likely to afford a winter sun holiday/ cruise or ski holiday.
Elderly travellors would also come in to this category, but again if fit enough to travel unlikely to be living in a care home.
The virus does prove more fatal for certain people. But initially many of these fitter mobile people would possibly be asymptomatic or have a mild/ moderate illness that they disregard as seasonal illness.
If this was the virus and then passed to other workers that presented illness, they would I assume take time off anyway slowing it diwn somewhat.
But there is a bit missing here that everyone would be getting it in shops spreading it in schools, and care homes etc.
Maybe it started to finally spread in this way to show the increased deaths in March as it takes six weeks?
What about deaths from kidney failure etc? Its a virus that is fatal in other ways such as cardiac arrest, are these figures included?
Are we in a second wave as other posters suggesting where it is now getting to less fit mobile people with smaller social circles?
If there is high immunity already, naturally there will be more flouting of rules and more vulnerable people will die as it filters to the last of the sheilded.
Other places in the world looking at a fifth to a quarter of people having had it. If you are in a city very possible in last 4 months you have been exposed.

The paper out of Germany yesterday said that they’ve found that spread does not seem to be occurring at shops but in places of prolonged contact like events

It all ties in

I'm more and more convinced that the bad cough that I had for weeks struggling to breath earlier this year was covid . I'd be very interested to have the test .

Even if it was in China December/ January I don't believe it took as long as it did to arrive in the uk .
I know they say that even if you've had it they don't know if your immune or not but it must be good news that more people probably have had it .
I really think the government needs to take this news seriously it was most likely here in January.

Maybe the government realises that and does not want to be accountable for the 18.1 million people freely spreading it.
We like New Zealand as an island could have shut this down much earlier by closing borders and testing tracking and quarantining.
Instead they let 18.1 million freely in exposing everyone.
If they admit it was here then they will have to answer why they did not protect us and cause huge fatalaties.
Now they know it gone to far and the more vulnerable will die because they acted too slowly.
If they show many are immune there will be a huge cry to stop lockdown and it will run even more among the vulnerable. Its damage limitation now. To at least save as many of the vulnerable as possible.

@Thighmageddon you may well not have been visiting family and off to parties around Christmas but the majority of people do which is why viruses spread so much at that time. Clearly there will be exceptions to the rules but it is fact that there is a lot more to-ing and fro-ing and social events at that time of year than usual and combined with the weather and therefore the need to be indoors more, there is greater viral spread. You can see this by looking at graphs charting cases of various viruses and how deaths go up during the month or so afterwards.