Will the airline industry ever return to normal?

[doobiedop]

With all the job losses predicted in the news, & social distancing measures will the likes of budget travel that we have come to expect still exist? Surely there will be less flights, less business travel & costs will be higher?

We could probably afford the cost in future & I definitely want to visit family abroad but right now I would rather take a ferry & drive as feel anxious about the virus.

I think even if flying becomes available from an infection point of view there will be less people wanting to fly. Even if only due to so many people looking at financial hardship over the next few years.

Many airlines have said the days of the big planes such as A380s are over. The airlines can’t afford to fly half empty jumbos. They’ll be scrapped and flights will take,place on smaller planes.

So yes prices will go up and the cost will mean that going abroad will be out of reach for many. Kind of back to a 1970s era where foreign travel was a pipe dream for most.

Many airlines have said the days of the big planes such as A380s are over.

This happened long before Coronavirus came about. Both the 747 and the A380 are not as economical as the A350/787/777. Phase out of these big jets has been ongoing for a long time.

My livelihood depends on it so I really do hope the industry can recover from it. Both DP and I have aviation roles. My DF also works there as do most of my friends. Aviation is all I know, I grew up in the industry, studied to be in the industry and have worked there straight from uni.

I fly once every two years because I care about our environment. I work at an airport that is concerned about the environment and is trying to do better. The aircraft that flew from our airport were 'cleaner' than many.

As a PP said, it's is more than the airlines, it's the airport staffs too, passenger service, security, ground staff, refuelling, airfield ops, air traffic control, air traffic engineers, estates, ground crew, aircraft dispatchers, wildlife management, admin staff for the airports, and then all the 3rd parties too, the cafes, shops, border force, taxi drivers, special branch etc. The list is endless. If regional airports fail the knock on effect will be devastating. Flybe's plight highlighted the importance of regional connectivity.

The services that smaller airports provide goes beyond packing as many people on a flight as possible. We look after airspace that isn't covered by the likes of NATS. Many airports are home to Air ambulances (helo and fixed wing), the police helicopters and provide areas for the military to train (instrumental approaches etc) and Royal Mail massively use aviation due to the speed.

I do feel if we can get through this year we will be ok. The executive/business jets will be the first to return to full strength, hopefully followed by some return of regular travellers.

I'm ranty because I'm frightened, my job has been at risk before but never as much as it has been now. How I will care for my dd financially if my job is no more is keeping me awake at night.

They said the same after 9/11 too.

They said the same after 9/11 too.

It's not really comparable.

Well despite the misery on this post, I am still looking forward to going on holiday to Marrakech once restrictions are lifted.

Another thing I didn't consider will insurance go up?

BakedCam why do you think BA deserve to be bailed out but not other airlines?

Depends on what you mean by ‘normal’. If you mean the last couple of decades, when flying became ridiculously cheap and something almost everyone could afford to do whenever they wanted, It will take many years to return to that version of normal, particularly in Europe.

If you mean the time before EasyJet, Ryanair, Vueling, Wizz, Eurowings etc etc when flying was much, much more expensive, when only the wealthy could afford to fly frequently and when most people flew less than once a year, that version of ‘normal’ could be coming back very soon...

Given I have family in all corners of the globe and also family in the aviation industry I really hope we get back to some semblance of normality relatively quickly.

For example last year my husband’s mum was diagnosed with a terrible illness on the Thursday and we were on a plane on the Saturday. She died 4 weeks to the day from diagnosis. I can’t imagine not being able to do that. She lived 6,000 miles away so not like there was a massive alternative to get to her.

Really hope that's not the case, i have 3 trips i'm planning next year if we're allowed to fly again. I work to travel. UK holidays just aren't for me.
I'll happily get the airport even earlier for checks, i'll wear a mask/gloves etc whatever they want me to, i'll pay to be vaccinated if i have to if that helps.
I need my holidays for my mental health, as does my husband. My 4 year old is also hooked on holidays.

@hellsbells99

Sorry, just picked up your question.

Another sorry also for the confusion. But I'll answer. Budget airlines will and have borne the brunt of economic downturn as we have seen with FlyBe other budget airlines.

British Airways has not only passenger flights but has an international cargo presence too. It is an important carrier in freight transport. Even though its holiday arm is a separate business entity, a bail out is required to maintain relations with other trade areas and more so with Brexit.

Passenger travel is looking unlikely to truly be profitable until the beginning of summer 2021, but cargo is still operating.

I'm coming from an economic perspective not a personal one.

BA has not asked for a bailout. It is making redundancies as part of a restructuring plan looking at being a more slimmed down operation in order to survive and adapt in a changing world. Yes it is incredibly sad and difficult for those staff that will loose their jobs but the reality is that BA cannot continue in its present form. The Unions believe that the government should prop BA up but what about Virgin and anybody else who wants a bailout should we give them all money? The taxpayers just cannot fund them all.

It's time to stop unnecessary air travel because of the environmental damage

I'm in favour of people in the uk being 'allowed' the carbon footprint of one trip a year and they can sell those miles for cash to the rich who 'need' more.

I've flown once in the last 15 years

I take 4 airplane trips a year. That’s two long haul holidays requiring 4 flights.
I will continue to do this. I would be very pissed off if I was told I was limited to one trip a year. What about people who have family abroad?

I agree that businesses could look at zoom and team meetings as an alternative to sending people abroad all of the time, if it were appropriate and this would have a significant impact on the environment.

But if the government went down the road of limiting air travel, I’d move abroad. I’m not willing to have my life dictated in such a way.

People have lost holidays and with that in some cases money/savings. People are unable to see family. People are genuinely gutted because of this. And then you get the environmentalists coming out saying goodbye, I hope planes hardly fly again’.
They will and I’ll take them.

I am also sorry for the loss of jobs.

But I have tried to take one flight a year (or fewer!) for many reasons now for environmental reasons. I don’t think the world can cope with a stag do in Prague or long weekend every month to Paris. And I am delighted to see fewer planes in the sky and I find the gross excess of people‘a travelling slightly disgusting to be honest - more so work travel, most of which is unnecessary.

But flights will revert back for the rich. We do live in a beautiful country though.

As BakedCam has pointed out there is an economic aspect to this, both long term and short term. Air transport is a global industry but reading some of the arguments and ideas being presented I do sense some are forgetting that.

On the subject of how often people fly - I agree some flights are flippant, but good luck enforcing flight rationing on an international level..For example are people be OK with the idea that only the Brits will have flights rationed?

Economy - Heathrow, Gatwick, Manchester and the other major airports who provide tens if not hundreds of thousands of jobs...they aren't going to be ploughed into rubble any time soon, they will need revenue PDQ.

I'm sure (state owned) Emirates and (state bailed out) American operators will be more than happy to pick up capacity at the likes of Heathrow/Manchester over the coming years if BA and Virgin go under.

Meanwhile the Brits living near airports, who are possibly now unemployed because the UK airline they worked for went under, and are now rationed to maybe two flights a year, still get to enjoy aircraft noise etc.

...And everybody here is OK with that, or do pp need to think again?

Laurie - it’s an interesting idea but you would have to try and capture people’s total carbon footprint. Eg I love to travel, incl flights, but I’d be annoyed if the impact of the many many people driving their 4x4s on unnecessary journeys, running tumble dryers rather than bothering to hang washing on clothes dryers or outside on lines and commuting to pointless offices running freezing AC wasn’t captured...

BakedCam but BA is now a subsidiary of IAG which is Spanish owned. They are also trying to put their staff on zero hour contracts (and not just during the pandemic). If we are going to help out airlines, I don’t think they should be treated as ‘special’

All the airlines based at UK airports and employing UK staff should be treated as equal. I want a travel industry and I want people to have jobs.

it’s an interesting idea

It's a terrible idea.

BA is now a subsidiary of IAG which is Spanish owned.

I'm not sure "subsidiary" is the correct term but happy to be corrected..BA is part of IAG/ is one of their several constituent OpCos...

FWIW whilst IAG has it's head office in Madrid it's operational Headquarters are in the UK, shares are traded on both the London and Spanish Stock Exchanged.

Iced - I was actually just being polite! I can never seem to get the tone right on Mumsnet!

I think this argument isn’t solely based on whether or not people want to travel, it’s a matter of IF they can travel. The Brits abroad Benidorm brigade will all be desperate to go away at some point, whether or not they will able to is dependant on;

Social distancing measures, how many allowed on each plane

Does the air filtration system onboard properly eradicate the virus or can it actually spread it further?

How countries we travel too regularly are coping, I’m thinking poorer places such as Egypt, Turkey, India.

What the quarantine measures will be upon returning from a trip

The transit through airports, imagine the lines for security with SD measures in place.

It will be more expensive, no more nipping to Amsterdam for the weekend on Stag or Hen parties, no more weekends away to Venice or other city breaks. Staycationing will be massive next year.