Will the airline industry ever return to normal?

[doobiedop]

With all the job losses predicted in the news, & social distancing measures will the likes of budget travel that we have come to expect still exist? Surely there will be less flights, less business travel & costs will be higher?

I'm not sure that British chavs going to Magaluf for a stag/hen weekend, getting drunk, shagging locals and throwing up everywhere has really done that much for lasting peace between nations!

It's done a hell of a lot for the Spanish economy though, your nasty stereotype of 'chavs' aside.

I will be going on as many holidays as possible once restrictions are lifted. Three holidays/short breaks impacted so far and I’ve taken vouchers rather than refunds for all of them.

Doobie - can’t imagine op will care about anyone’s holiday home.

On that score I always thought that would be a major risk in buying abroad. I’m a pessimist!

If 9-11 didn’t stop people for flying for very long, covid won’t.

Personally, I'll be booking a flight the minute it becomes possible to do so. And I suspect many of the 'I'm never getting on a plane again because I'm so environmentally aware' people will do the exact same thing.

Different people have different views. We were saying before Christmas that we'd not be that bothered if we didn't fly again. Over recent years, flying has become very stressful, expensive, etc. Last year, we had an awful experience at the hell hole known as Manchester Airport terminal 3 due to gestapo style security that really knocked us and nearly made us miss our flight - it cast a shadow over the entire holiday. Yes, flying can be cheap if you're willing to get up at 2 in the morning or fly back overnight from Spain, or have a stopover somewhere to get unpopular flights, but if you want relatively normal daytime direct flights, the cost can easily be double, treble or more.

We're done with it. I don't think we'll fly again. Flying for us, for the last few years has been anything but enjoyable - it's just one stress after another. I think Covid will be the end for us. Plenty of places to go in the UK that don't involve congested airports, etc., and when you add into the stress the risk of catching Covid due to the crowds, lack of space, etc., just not worth the risk.

I don't know enough about pilots but don't they need to maintain a certain number of hours annually & isn't it very expensive to become a pilot in the first place?

If lots of pilots are made redundant I don't see how things can be back to normal in a yr or so because will all the pilots just be there waiting?

@DBML Do you think it will be more expensive though?

Kazzy - would you approve of my international shagging more...it was in Prague, we were both masters students, and we weren’t drunk? (Hopeful)

Nobody is suggesting there will be no overseas travel. Just that it will be more expensive so hopefully people will do it less frequently for leisure reasons. I know for a fact that DH's company has said they are massively reducing their travel budget going forwards since they don't believe its necessary. Likewise they are looking to reduce their office space (but that's a different topic albeit also good for the environment).

@fascinated I am the op?

Oh, I’m sorry. I thought I had typed

Pp

no worries

I saw a aviation expert talking on the news he reckons the industry will fire up again in s few years and I for one can't wait, travel is my biggest passion.
In the meantime if I can't fly I'll be driving to France, Italy etc.

I don’t believe that it won’t go almost back to normal.
I think there will need to be better sanitation of airplanes before every flight instead of once a day and some sort of better air filtering inside the cabin.
I also think it will become much more normal to wear masks onboard. It will be interesting how that works in regards to passport control when they have to see your face properly so you will be having to remove your mask more.

@doobiedop

I’ve been looking at prices for next year and they are largely comparable to this year.

I do think that as demand begins to rise again, that’s when we’ll see prices rise for a few years.

Following this, the airlines won’t have as many planes as they will have reduced their fleets, so there will be planes available to buy. There will be free gates at airports and opportunity for new airlines to start materialising again. This will help to get that competitive pricing going again.

So initially not much to worry about.
Then a few years of expensive travel.
Then gradually getting back to what we know.

I'm sure things will get back to normal in a year or two as holidays are important for people and for the economy. The climate change protesters will back out on the streets!
Might be a few less planes , but I'm sure it'll be ramped up as soon as they can! If a vaccine is found that will help enormously.
It's all ifs and buts at the moment of course.
I Still feel sad for people but climate change is a big problem for all countries so this happening will help that for
a while at least. Double edged sword.

Travel will revert to being a privelidge as opposed to the right it has become.

Likewise they are looking to reduce their office space (but that's a different topic albeit also good for the environment).

This is an interesting one but again has a massive impact on the industries around it eg construction.

Oh well. That’ll suit the brexit crowd!

I am sorry to say, that I am devastated.
As a child, in the 60s we never went abroad for a holiday.
Same again when we had our children. We could not afford it.
Finally in a position to take the occasional holiday abroad, and then this happens.
I was really looking forward to some sun, and different cultures.
At the moment, even holidays in the UK are not happening, nor just a day out.
From the business point of view, I think there will be less business travel abroad. But in some cases face to face meetings are much better.

My parents came to the UK from ex colony many years ago to fill gaps. While I agree that flying is a luxury CV travel restrictions may mean there are certain relatives I’ll never see. Worse for others as it is their parents.

For some lockdown means not seeing relatives for a while, (I know others in the UK have tragically faced death of family). However lockdown will lift maybe quite soon.
for a percentage of the population with family abroad for much longer.

If 9-11 didn’t stop people for flying for very long, covid won’t

9/11 killed under 3000 people. Covid’s a tad more prevalent.

Besides, even if a vaccine is available next year it’s going to take years to implement globally. Isolation periods on entry to countries are going to be with us for a while I reckon. Not many people are going to have the ability to add two weeks either end of their journey for isolation purposes just for a holiday.

I don’t know how much the travel industry can pin their hopes on consumer demand/ability to travel tbh. It’s sad but it’s the reality

If 9-11 didn’t stop people for flying for very long, covid won’t

The threat was neutralised. People could see and experience better security.

With Covid, it's an invisible enemy that could be lurking anywhere. The entire foreign travel industry isn't set up for social distancing. Not in airport check in, security, lounges etc., not in aircraft themselves, not on those buses that are cram packed between gate and aircraft, not on airporthotel shuttle buses, not in hotel restaurants etc etc. It's all about large numbers of people in small spaces from the moment you leave your house to the moment you get back home. No amount of wiping down handrails will make that safe until we've all been vaccinated.

@cornettoninja

I don’t think so. There’s too much money involved. Countries need tourism. As long as certain precautionary measures are taking place, I think it’ll be fine. Testing before a flight. Good hygiene and routine cleaning. High quality air filters on planes. Masks and gloves if necessary.

Whilst I personally do have time to do 2 weeks either side of a vacation, I don’t think it would be necessary when we get to the point when covid cases are low and testing/ tracing is in place.

Regards 911, I was terrified to get in a plane after that. It wasn’t the amount of deaths, it was the manner of deaths.
Right now, I’m hoping to be on a flight as soon as possible!

I think the travel industry was compromised before the pandemic and this has catapulted the collapse. I watched CEO of Ryanair this morning and it was clear he was stressed and worried.

I think it is in our interests to bail out BA, but budget airlines, I'm afraid will bore the brunt of this. They were on their way out anyway.

I think the days of package holidays are long gone. Cruises are another area of travel that will feel it after Diamond Princess.

It is desperately sad for those that have been affected and as always, it is the working families that suffer the consequences.

I think travel was changing anyway and the public will be wary of travel.