Will the airline industry ever return to normal?

[doobiedop]

With all the job losses predicted in the news, & social distancing measures will the likes of budget travel that we have come to expect still exist? Surely there will be less flights, less business travel & costs will be higher?

It's not just the actual airlines it's the people that work in the airports in the shops and bars , the baggage handlers , the list is endless.
It'll go back to the 1970s when only the well off could go away. Private jets for the rich and famous : they won't miss out.
Virgin will become just for Sir Richard and his friends to use to get away! Spread them around the aircraft.
A vaccine will take a while to get to everyone so it'll be this way for a while.

It never was 'normal' though; human beings have been flying like that for about five minutes of human history. Things come and go. Mass travel is, I hope - for both the planet and we who live on it - gone.
How we mitigate the losses incurred by individuals is another matter.

I suppose but there will be round ways of not flying

Trains are pretty good once you hit mainland Europe (or at least they used to be).

My fathers family are all based in Europe but he refuses to fly so as a child we visited twice using ferries and trains. Took 24hrs each way but the journey was a pretty good part of the holiday.

I know people who jump on a plane five or six times a year for holidays (my DParents included). Its simply not sustainable. Reverting to a situation where overseas travel is an occasional luxury is necessary IMO.

Agree, flying must be reduced. I still can't quite believe the sheer number of people who fly for a weekend away, or for stag/hen parties. Just why??? I think that kind of stupidity will stop. Covid is an ideal opportunity to "reset the clock" on unnecessary air travel. There was growing concern about the environmental effects before Covid, and I hope that the number of flights will be permanently substantially reduced once we start getting back to normal.

Trains are pretty good once you hit mainland Europe

Such a shame that the UK botched up our High Speed continental link by ending it at a London terminus, so no through trains to other parts of the UK. Even with HS2, people still have to get off at one terminus, make their own way to another terminus and get on another train, only to go North to Birmingham (and maybe onto Manchester in another couple of decades!). But hey-ho, nowhere else matters to the London-Centric metropolitan elite - as long as they can get a direct train to Paris or whevever else, they're happy aren't they. The vast majority who live outside London don't matter so they can suffer slow trains, changes etc until they get to the promised land of London!

I get all the “it’s bad for the environment “
etc etc

But let’s bring ourselves into the really world

People are loosing jobs , god forbid anyone on this who feels travel is a luxury are not going through the stress in their job role that many people in the travel industry are right now

People love to travel and take holidays SO many people will want to take a holiday after this pandemic has settled yes it might not be this year but 2021 will be busy

I'm not a good flyer at all so that doesn't bother me but I am sorry for people that do like a holiday and the young who again are going to miss out on travel and their holidays with friends and all the things I was able to do 30 years ago. No more back packing 'gap year ' type trips either.
Plus all these staff being made redundant: where will they get jobs?
It's so grim.

With all the concentration on the supposed evils of the holiday industry, weekend breaks, Air BnB etc what often gets forgotten or is perhaps not realised in the first place is that before the current crisis plenty of people were travelling on flights for "non-flippant" or even highly essential reasons.

Air Travel will be massively reduced over the next few years, but demand will return.

Now about all those flippant car journeys people make...

I really hope it doesn’t.

@Lala241280

There are people like me Lala, who will probably end up taking 2-3 long haul holidays next year, to make up for losing out this year.
Not everyone is willing to stop flying and we value what you do.

its grim. I get the environmental aspect, I really do. But I was hoping for a gentle incremental change over a number of years so there was time for jobs to gradually shift into other sectors. Not a huge crash.

Since around 90% of flights are business and frequent flyers, I can see that it's quite possible to save the environment with far fewer flights And still have people go on holiday and visit family

I'd like that to be the result

I hope more is done than was done for the miners though

Nice to hear there is support for the travel and airline industry

Like I said in the real world people love to travel and always will

I heard the CEO of heathrow talking about getting the economy back to full throttle and to be honest my heart sank. I appreciate that people's jobs are at risk and the economy is taking a massive hit but equally we are in the midst of a climate crisis. Bush fires, floods, drought and famine, melting of the ice caps on a massive scale, extinction of wildlife etc all affecting people, invariably poor and 1000s of miles from the uk.
It's telling that only an emergency like covid has prompted the governments of first world nations to take such radical and decisive action when they've positively dragged their feet regarding climate change. I can only hope that the positive changes to lifestyle that lockdown has necessitated will carry on like working from home, being more thrifty, taking more exercise...

I thought it was air conditioning that was the biggest contributor to global warming?

Agree lots of non essential flights could be stopped (ditto commuting, school runs, pointless shopping trips etc) but I’d be sad if the positives of cultural exchange and tourism we have painstakingly built up since the wars was affected... Not least because it makes lasting Peace between nations more likely to hold.

I live in Australia where I would class air travel as essential. My parents live 15hrs drive away, or 1.5hrs flight. I would see them much less if I couldn't afford to fly.

Lots of people here have family and loved ones at distances which simply are not feasible without air travel. I am hoping it returns to normal with less business travel which I recognize can be handled virtually.

I also have close family in Europe and NZ who without affordable air travel, i would never see. That would make life very difficult.

People are loosing jobs , god forbid anyone on this who feels travel is a luxury are not going through the stress in their job role that many people in the travel industry are right now. People love to travel and take holidays SO many people will want to take a holiday after this pandemic has settled yes it might not be this year but 2021 will be busy

Did we carry on mining coal when it was dangerous and no one wanted it or did we close the industry?? Same scenario. You can't artificially support an industry if there is little demand and it's massively damaging to the environment.

Rather than grants/subsidies etc to support the airline industry back to it's previous unsustainable levels, any Govt aid should be directed to new industries, re-training, etc. If fewer people go abroad, then there's more scope for UK tourism - we'll need more trains, more coaches, more UK hotels, more UK tourist attractions - all needed people to build them, operate them, work in them, etc etc.

We really shouldn't rush back to the old ways "just because we've always done it that way" - we need to think outside the box with new ideas, new opportunities, etc.

Foreign travel should get back to be something that people do occasionally, not several times per year! As for the idiots who fly for stag and hen parties - no one will miss that kind of pollution and waste - if people want to get drunk for a weekend, they can go to Blackpool!

Reverting to a situation where overseas travel is an occasional luxury is necessary IMO.

What does that do to all the people who have holiday homes abroad? Or those who are immigrants like my parents and all family are abroad?

"Ever" is an awful long time. So much will depend on how long this crisis lasts for. If, in the more optimistic scenario, a vaccine is found by the end of the year and damage to the economy is severe but short-lived, we could be back to normal within a year or two. If the crisis goes on for longer, then damage to the aviation and travel industries will be correspondingly longer, but that still doesn't add up to 'ever'.

Personally, I'll be booking a flight the minute it becomes possible to do so. And I suspect many of the 'I'm never getting on a plane again because I'm so environmentally aware' people will do the exact same thing.

I’d be sad if the positives of cultural exchange and tourism we have painstakingly built up since the wars was affected... Not least because it makes lasting Peace between nations more likely to hold.

I'm not sure that British chavs going to Magaluf for a stag/hen weekend, getting drunk, shagging locals and throwing up everywhere has really done that much for lasting peace between nations!

It's exceptionally elitist to suggest travel should only be for the wealthy
Everyone should consider if their trip is worthy of the impact, but it should be an opportunity available to the majority

I hope the cruise industry doesn't go back to normal. Outrageously polluting with comparatively few benefits for local people. At least airline passengers stay at local hotels and visit local restaurants and bars.

@Kazzyhoward

Even if international travel was stopped for the rest of my life, I would never bother to take a U.K. holiday, and I know I’m not the only one that feels this way.

A holiday for me includes sunshine, clear warm oceans, palm trees and different people/cultures.

Luckily, the idea of international travel never being allowed again is bollocks, so I have nothing to worry about.

Did we carry on mining coal when it was dangerous and no one wanted it or did we close the industry?? Same scenario. You can't artificially support an industry if there is little demand and it's massively damaging to the environment.

Coal mining died out not because it was dangerous or environmentally damaging, but because the advent of relatively cheap oil and gas meant that coal was no longer needed.

However, there is still going to be demand for air travel. Perhaps not as much as before, at least not in the short term, but people are not going to stop wanting to go on holiday, go on work trips (not all can be done via Zoom) or visit relatives abroad.