Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

strawberryjam that article is v interesting and makes a lot of sense. Good to have outdoor activities put into context.

Thanks that's a fascinating article strawberry people should know this. There are people panicking at passing too close on the pavement needlessly.

They think you can catch hand foot and mouth from faeces a month or so after.
Surely though even if you arent coughing it can be in saliva? After the 7day recovery time? So preschool a particular risk. (With added nappy change issues).

I was surprised at talk of opening libraries as surely the books and computers and book machines?

I worked in a bank. When i stsrted there the desks were the right size. By the time i left they were tiny. No barrier between neighbouring workers. and wh at was ridiculous was you couldnt train someone as where could they sit.

It would be nice if offices considered the health of staff going forward. So further apart and barriers between. And im not sure in uk we really needed the air con on.
Then staff blamed and made to come into work when ill.

I should say, it was another poster on another thread, that drew attention to the article, sorry I can't now find it to credit them!

It's such important info isn't it? Hope it makes it into the press.

The NHS advice on shielding or people with symptoms living with others now makes much more sense, it always said to wait a few mins after someone had used the loo and I didn't fully understand why when I read it.

Did we get a lot of infection at football match or again was that because of using hotels and public transpoe to get there.
Seems the main risk from events is also the distance people have come to get there.
(Note though that the event that caused philadelphia spike in Spanish flu was a parade..)
It may well be that inside is high risk but outside crowds you might be ok if you are 2m away.

And just fully realised kids dont need to be able to infect adults by coughing if they can infect us when usi ng the toilet. They d o say ibfected should use the bathroom last

X post!
But yes i did realise and know it could be transferred that way but it was more directed at people within a house not really about infection control in hospitals... Care homes etc. And schools.

Realistically anyone can spread it.
if immune
-still coughing
-poop
-can still get it on hands from surfaces and spread to someone else

obviously ill people
Can do all the above and it isnt clear how long actively infectious so very likely still infectious kids and adults will return to school and work

I can’t open the article for some reason, would be v grateful if someone could post what it says about outside risk?

As a result of lockdown, has there been a lower number of cases of the common cold and ordinary seasonal flu?
Will this signify the end of the common cold?
If so, that will be one very positive by-product of lockdown.

Current byproducts have been reported as fewer asthma deaths and possibly fewer heart attacks due to better air /lower stress ( surprisingly)

@attackedbycritters That's interesting. Where did you find out? I would love to know if the common cold has been killed off by lockdown.

I doubt the cold will die. They die off every summer and bounce back each winter, I guess they don't need too many hosts to survive . It would probably need to be a much bigger longer international lockdown to achieve that

Sorry no links to hand but I guess the guardian and bbc , both earlier this week ( I am struggling with time though )

The asthma // pollution was a European wide study on lives saved so far

The heart attacks was postulated after they had started talking about too few people coming into a and e for heart attacks, the first thought was people dying at home, but they couldn't find enough evidence for that either

"Death pollution corona avoided" as search terms gets some links for the first

Oh sensible ones can you tell me if as a person who works in a supermarket convenience store I should be wearing a mask?
The advice is very conflicting still.
Any stats?
I found the article linked up thread very interesting as it confirms that my work environment is higher risk.

Thanks for the info @attackedbycritters

Hound this article with a list of all the cases by Country. Really surprised me how few cases there are in so many countries. I can't really rationalise this. www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/countries-confirmed-cases-coronavirus-200125070959786.html

"can you tell me if as a person who works in a supermarket convenience store I should be wearing a mask?
The advice is very conflicting still"

I always wear one when outside, even if only to avoid infecting others if I am unkowingly infectious

No advice conflict in Germany or many other countries on the continent:

e.g. in Germany wearing a mask / face covering is mandatory in all shop, taxis, public transport, anywhere people mix indoors with other households

Everyone working in shops wears a mask, also in outdoor markets

Note the v few cases in places like Hong Kong where masks are compulsory & normal now.

They also have a system of measuring temperature before allowing entrance to work, shops, schools, restaurants etc

Two customs the West should copy

Very few cases in the southern hemisphere altogether though. Is this cases not being reported? Or something else? There's been hard lockdown in many countries who have still been hit really hard.

Re: colds, I managed to catch one recently despite only going food shopping once & daily walks so unfortunately I think they'll still be around.

I'm really unsure on a practical level how it would work. The company would need to supply staff with masks. They need changed if they get damp I believe. How long is that? Would you need several per 8hr shift?
Or if we made our own which I can't find any data on effectiveness on, how often do they need changed and how many would one need if they have to be washed at the end of every shift.
If masks become mandatory the government will have to issue guidance.

@BigChocFrenzy I was just wondering what the situation with public transport is in Germany? I know you have to wear masks. Is social distancing enforces as well? I was just listening to Grant Shapps today and trying to picture tubes and buses with 2m social distancing enforced....

+I should say, it was another poster on another thread, that drew attention to the article, sorry I can't now find it to credit them!*

'Twas me, I think - probably on a school-related one as the air flow examples are all too real for those of us who have typical classrooms with windows at the back and an airflow all directed towards the teacher at the front, and 30+ students sitting in the same air for an hour [secondary] or all day [primary]

@Humphriescushion

As well as too high a criteria for admission, British hospitals also like to turf people out as soon as possible so it could be a combination of less admissions and shorter stays.

@BigChocFrenzy and @Sunshinegirl82 re: the U.K. still having 5-6k positive results, I think this shows the utter lack of testing the U.K. had around the peak more than anything else. From China stats estimating 20% would go to hospital and a policy to test only those 20% that means the U.K. government would having knowingly missed confirming up to 20,000-24,000 new mild (however that is defined) cases in the community per day in the first two weeks of lock down.

Now people who live with key workers are eligible for testing if they show symptoms so if key workers are keeping to social distancing outside of work then this provides rudimentary contact tracing and testing of close contacts during lockdown.

People might like to look at the thread 'Pandemic affecting menstrual cycle'

Thank you

@cantkeepawayforever oh so glad you're here so I can thank you!

Classrooms in our (secondary) tend to have windows at the side, wonder whether it's something that varies according to when they were built? Such previously arbitrary-seeming factors suddenly become important.