Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 7

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 7 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Can I ask, what is now the highest possible percentage of the UK population that has now been affected? And the lowest? I am trying to get a sense of ‘most of us have had it’ which people want to believe. Is it true? I have read that flow vs time article with horror as a teacher. It will be a matter of time and teachers will drop like flies.

I'm secondary and I only have 2 windows with restricted opening at the back if the classroom.
In the last week before lockdown we were indeed dropping like flies

If ~250,000 people in the uk have tested positive in total

until recently we only tested hospital admissions, which is therefore ~15% of total cases

Say 10% as I have had ( birthday ) fizzy wine and so sums are hard

Then at most ? 2,500,000 people have been infected out of 67,000,000, then less than 4%

Thanks, attacked. Very early days, then.

Pandemic affecting menstrual cycle

I can't find that thread. Could someone please link it?

It will be a matter of time and teachers will drop like flies

Part of my concern with the 'clap for carers' is that people that this is helping; somehow people feel that they're 'doing their bit'. But it's not writing to their MPs about PPE or demanding answers about how NHS staff are being treated as number (as examples) and it sets up a precedent. So teachers will also be hung out to dry because 'we're all in this together'. It does mean you'll get some clapping though.

In answer to a previous PP re: how many masks for an 8 hour shift - unless you meet criteria for a replacement, nurses in my health board get one FRSM for an 8 hour shift on a ward. PPE shortage is very real.

@PrimalLass here we are:
Pandemic affecting menstrual cycle ? www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3898675-Pandemic-affecting-menstrual-cycle

@Howaboutanewname

I can’t find the articles but antibody tests in Bergamo indicated 35% of population had been infected.... but they have had 6,000 deaths out of a population of 1.1m, and NYC indicates 25% infections, with c. 19,000 deaths and a 8.4m population.

Extrapolate that to the UK, based on our deaths, and you get 3-5%.... The UK infections are remarkably evenly spread compared to many places based on daily Government data (which surprised me) so don’t seem to be any bigger outliers as in Italy and the USA.

DaisyLovesDonald I'm retired and won't use public transport while COVID remains a risk
So I only know that masks are compulsory within stations and at stops too.

However, I can't visualise that distancing is feasible on the packed Tube, trams, buses in large German cities
Hence presumably the requirement for masks, to at least reduce the risk of infecting others

In countries like the NL and Germany, most roads have cycle lanes or are cyclist-friendly,
so a cycling commute is far more feasible than in the UK, especially over summer.
Or people will use cars more / share a longer round trip with their partner

@Howaboutanewname

Further to my earlier post, there are other studies which may indicate a higher rate, but taken all into consideration, I think 10% is probably the upper limit on the number who’ve been infected to date in the UK.

@larrygrylls

To prevent mingling of carehome/hospital epidemics with other community, I am hoping the government doesn’t relax the lockdown in a meaningful way (Two or more walks a day and being able to sit in parks on a walk is not meaningful to me) until the number of infections in keyworkers begins to drop.

The problems of tens or hundreds of separate epidemics is going to be big for countries like the USA, and perhaps, Brazil however. Just because New York is passings it’s peak in this first lockdown, doesn’t mean that Florida has. Ten urban areas with peaks at different times peaks and fatalities of 10k+ each will quickly add up.

Estimates I've read, from those who don't seem to have an axe to grind, are mostly 4-5% infected in the UK

it would be a pleasant surprise if it is 10% - I haven't heard any date for reporting by the antibody studies of national sampling that I presume should be ongoing.

A detailled study of a town, like the Uni Bonn Gangelt study, is useful, but a national study is needed as well

What is the problem with UK labs - this should not be necessary

Coronavirus: 50,000 tests sent to the US due to lab 'issues'

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-50-000-tests-sent-to-the-us-due-to-lab-issues-11985900

It comes as the government was shown to have missed its testing target for the seventh consecutive day.

For the UK too,
governments can't force consumers to buy non-essentials, or force businesses to stay open if they don't have enough customers

We're entering a Global Recesssion / Depression and millions of people are too skint or insecure to return to their former spending habits

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/highest-unemployment-rate-great-depression/611398/

The White House and most Republicans seem to think that this crisis will be solved by loudly announcing the reopening of the economy.

But this is a dangerous misunderstanding of what’s actually driving the recession:
It’s the pandemic, stupid.

The shutdowns themselves had “little or no impact on economic activity” according to an analysis bya team of economists at Harvardd_.

Severall paperss now show that the decline in spending and employment in most cases occurred before states officially shut down their economy.

Governments didn’t close state economies on their own, and they can’t open the economies on their own, either.

Just popped on to say thankyou all for such a civilised sensible thread! I had to come off the school one as it was so uncivilised. This one is such a breath of fresh air (not to mention informative!) compared to many others.

COMMENT: on the claim on some threads that
the virus in Europe is a much more severe strain than Wuhan's
and / or that there was a milder strain in Europe late last year

Mid-April, after China suddenly announced an extra 1,290 COVID deaths in Wuhan,

immediately the Wuhan curve of deaths is similar to London 🤔
The FT graph is offset to start at the 10th death

The China curve then becomes similar to Germany

We keep thinking of the Wuhan epidemic December - January as being so much lighter than what we have in Europe,

.... but they look v similar now that we have the revised Wuhan deaths
(and several Western governments now suspect they are covering up a lot more deaths)

Yes, I've been wondering about the less / more severe strain narrative, and was thinking that I haven't seen anything scientifically robust published about it.

StrawberryJam200 Thank you.

On the thread asking whether it was here earlier, they are now saying it probably was
and that hence this weaker strain has given much higher immunity levels than most scientists estimate

My immediate thought is: why does the Uk have the highest death toll in Europe then ?
Even if we normalise wrt population, the Uk is #4

Bigchoc,

To be fair, our late lock down probably multiplied our cases and deaths between 2 and 4 times.

The weaker/stronger strain argument has zero evidence backing it up, so I wouldn’t give it any credence.

What is possible, thinking about it, though, is for earlier cases and a far lower case fatality rate. This would allow a lot more cases before it showed up significantly in the hospital admissions/death statistics. So, if you adjusted the hospital admission rate per infection and death rate per infection down by a factor of 10, and cases increased by 4x per week, you would observe the uptick 2.5 weeks later than with a 10x more virulent illness.

However, were that the case, we would have much higher immunity (10x). Will we find that when we do antibody tests? I doubt it, but it may lead to some revision.

Maybe a perfect storm of high population density, late hospital admission, obesity, northerly latitude with, high proportion BAME.

Or maybe other countries arent being honest. And when we see their excess mortality for the whole year we'll see a different picture.

My thoughts re if it was here earlier (and I think were mentioned on that thread) is that surely the distinctive chest X-ray pattern would be seen in any chest X-rays that were taken at the time. So I wonder if anyone is looking through historical chest X-rays?

Personal anecdata is that there were definitely several nasty respiratory viruses about this winter; a friend with asthma has an x ray and two different sets of abs plus then a different inhaler around feb. She then is sure they all had COVID 19 over Easter and all managed ok bar her 7 yr old son who had temps for nearly two weeks.

Dh and I had an especially bad thing that he uncharacteristically suffered from more given I have asthma but I also have a kick ass inhaler now. I personally don't think it was "the virus."

It’s all arguable : www.thetimes.co.uk/article/two-thirds-of-coronavirus-cases-are-missed-app-expert-says-xqtl685px?shareToken=3dad20818f36e6db96d140b571013b1c

China probably isn't being honest

• even after suddenly finding an extra 1,000+ deaths in Wuhan

Russia isn't being honest:

A country that historically has low life expectancy,
but now has so few COVID deaths from so many cases
.... and 3 doctors - who posted about COVID patients - dying in 10 days after jumping out of windows

Democracies .... very difficult to cover up thousands of deaths, enough to make the UK look not so bad,
especially now that cases and deaths have tailed off so much on the continent and life is much calmer