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Original poster

Thoughts on UK lockdown - what will happen on 7th may?

246 replies

Bumpandus · 27/04/2020 17:54

Obviously no one can predict anything

But what are your opinions of what will happen and why?

For example:

Lockdown still for a few more weeks?
Or Ease restrictions but how?

Just interested in people’s thoughts.

OP posts:
Firef1y72 · 29/04/2020 06:00

Considering the wording of the 5 conditions has been very subtly changed (come on there was never no chance of a second wave), I'm very hopeful that there may be a very slight relaxation. Hopefully we'll be able to meet with a small number of friends outside. The bubble idea being mooted about is totally unworkable for me (and many others), I have no family within 200 miles, my partners Mother and Grandmother are both shielding and I only really socialise (as in am able to talk about how I'm feeling) with 2-3 people irl, and no way I would expect them to choose me over their family.
I don't want much, I'd be happy to have face to face contact with my PT again, or to be able to sit in the garden with one of my friends just so I can talk about how pissed off I'm feeling with someone other than my partner.

Aragog · 29/04/2020 09:08

Philippe said French children could begin returning to pre-school and primary school classes from 11 May on a voluntary basis and with classes restricted to 15 pupils. From 18 May, junior high schools may reopen in areas where infections are low, with a decision to be made at the end of May on whether senior schools can reopen in June.

So France isn't just reopening school either. Restricted class sizes to 15. Voluntary return and only the younger classes first. Older ones only if infection in area is low.

So why on earth do people still think our schools will just go back after half term, which is what we are reading in MN all the time? I know some people it's just wishful thinking but can you really see uk schools being back to normal in a months time?

CuriousaboutSamphire · 29/04/2020 09:14

Those 5 conditions will continue to change, subtly or not. They'll respond to the situation as it changes.

And what's your thinking behind there never having been any chance of a second wave? Is COVID different here?

CuriousaboutSamphire · 29/04/2020 09:14

My apologies... I missed that double negative!!

MarginalGain · 29/04/2020 09:19

The fifth of the five conditions, no second peak, has been softened to 'no risk of second peak that the NHS can't cope with'.

A rare show of logic.

Firef1y72 · 29/04/2020 10:34

@MarginalGain

It is very subtle but a very important difference.
I remember when they added the 5th condition thinking "well that's it they're never lifting the lockdown" because it was such an impossible dream.

I have also always thought that if we are ever going to see the other side of this there needs to be a point where we have a steady stream of people catching it. We can't rely on a vaccine, and for every 1% of people that have had it (and hopefully produce some sort of immunity, even if not full) the rate of infection will slow a little, eventually to the point where normal life can fully resume. The original plan was to get it over and done with as quickly as possible (as Sweden is doing) , the plan now seems to be to draw it out over what could be years. Time will only tell which was the least destructive way of dealing with it.

Personally I have a feeling that as long as the NHS wasn't overwhelmed to that point that those who could be saved don't have a bed drawing it out will not reduce the final mortality rate by any more than a tiny amount, if at all.

MarginalGain · 29/04/2020 10:46

It is very subtle but a very important difference.

Correct.

The UK seems slightly less a dystopia today as a result of this tweak, although not much,.

feelingverylazytoday · 29/04/2020 11:21

I think a second wave is inevitable, no matter how careful we are. Germany is seeing a rise in infections, and they seem to have handled the situation in a very efficient manner.
Yes we are just going to have to get on with it within that framework.

Peppafrig · 29/04/2020 11:25

The rise of cases in Germany is worrying .

MarshaBradyo · 29/04/2020 11:28

Germany look to the R0 to guide their decisions which is a good way to go.

MarshaBradyo · 29/04/2020 11:29

Our five tests are now so loose they don’t carry much weight or guidance so let’s see if they have better insight here too.

LilacTree1 · 29/04/2020 11:37

Peppa "The rise of cases in Germany is worrying ."

why? Did you think the virus had run away?

Peppafrig · 29/04/2020 11:39

No of course not but they have such a better handle on it than our country so I can only imagine what will happen here when we ease restrictions.

LilacTree1 · 29/04/2020 11:48

Peppa, the virus is here to stay, get over it.

oldwhyno · 29/04/2020 11:50

gradual easing from 7th may or before. highest value, lowest risk first obvs. why? just stands to reason really.

The two biggest nuts to crack here (imho) are education and public transport. both are critical to getting people back to work, and both will be very hard to do without a significant impact on community transmission.

Peppafrig · 29/04/2020 11:51

@LilacTree1 lmao if only it was that easy to get over it. Then no one would have anxiety at all would they? If someone saying get over it was the cure for worries .Nice dream world you live in though .

Daffodil101 · 29/04/2020 11:55

Lilac is right though.

We are going to be living in a world where we make the best of a bad situation. The virus will be around, there will be spikes and scares and headlines. The nhs will be a bit different. We will have to wear masks in some places.

But we simply can’t stay hidden until it goes away.

LilacTree1 · 29/04/2020 11:58

Peppa - I have anxiety. But you don't go around being scared that you'll die of all the millions of things you can die of, including pneumonia and flu (despite the vaccines) - or do you?

the government have entirely manufactured this hysteria. I had the pneumonia jab and still got it twice, it's not perfect.

I've never known a situation where someone else's anxiety has paralysed half the bloody world. It's appalling.

MarginalGain · 29/04/2020 13:23

No of course not but they have such a better handle on it than our country so I can only imagine what will happen here when we ease restrictions.

We're going to have a spike, people will die, some of covid19 but mostly for other reasons.

MarginalGain · 29/04/2020 13:30

I've never known a situation where someone else's anxiety has paralysed half the bloody world. It's appalling.

I know, I'm passing my time by contemplating the ways that various governments will spin the .2/.3% (or less) mortality of covid19 to make it seem more reasonable in hindsight.

user1487194234 · 29/04/2020 13:45

Yes certainly hope there is some sort of relaxation very soon

gingercat02 · 29/04/2020 15:49

Talk of schools reopening "in phases" from the education sec today, and rather bizarrely Next are going to reopen some shops. That's not lockdown of any form or essential shopping! 🙄

goshdarnitjanet · 29/04/2020 15:57

The article I read about Next was that they are looking at how it they can get shops open safely too - so it will be ready as soon as the Government eases restrictions not that it was planning on opening them yet

Stellamboscha · 30/04/2020 08:14

I've never known a situation where someone else's anxiety has paralysed half the bloody world. It's appalling.*

I know, I'm passing my time by contemplating the ways that various governments will spin the .2/.3% (or less) mortality of covid19 to make it seem more reasonable in hindsight.*

Well said

banjaxxed · 30/04/2020 08:20

Next are not opening shops - they have said they have a plan of how/where they will when the restriction on shops is lifted