Thoughts on UK lockdown - what will happen on 7th may?

[Bumpandus]

Obviously no one can predict anything

But what are your opinions of what will happen and why?

For example:

Lockdown still for a few more weeks?
Or Ease restrictions but how?

Just interested in people’s thoughts.

If they do extend they really must give a exit strategy by then , because by then people me including will start thinking they are just keep extending extending with no exit and will get fed up with hope on the horizon.
Italy are starting to slowly lift by next week and we are 2 weeks behind I think .

Agree Grandma or the 9 year old boy

Children are a lot more likely to remain a symptomatic once infected, and to date there have been no documented cases of an asymptomatic patient transmitting the virus to anyone else.

NSW study that says it self it was conducted when most kids were asked to stay at home so may have affected results.

From a doctor

Study conducted in time when CT not his, kids began to be kept home
Low numbers of cases
Incomplete testing
Disingenuous conclusions intended to be more powerful than they are
Info on presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission still developing

Paper says “only one of 168 individuals was identified to have been infected following close contact with a school case in these five primary schools”

Again, can not say that as did not test 168 individuals
Only swabbed 53 and serology on 21 who obviously overlapped

Extend by 3 weeks. Re-open some non essential shops with distancing measures. Selected year groups to return to school after half term subject to distancing measures eg maybe yr 9 and yr 10 but classes split and no canteen open / assemblies / PE.

Government really need to identify a suitable contact tracing method as that's the only way out of this in the short term. There will be a second wave because there's no vaccine, the challenge is to keep it low and steady and to treat people sooner like Germany have done.

Oh, it’s the Australian research based on 9 children.

That hasn’t ‘established’ anything, sorry.

@nike

From your link

is notable that on 23 March 2020 the NSW Premier advised that although schools remained open, parents were encouraged to keep their children at home for online learning. After this date face-to-face attendance in schools decreased significantly and this may have impacted the results of this investigation. Furthermore, school holidays commenced in NSW on Friday 10 April for two weeks.

You Think it may have an affect! Course it did

I think there may be some minor relaxations - some non essential shops allowed to open, encouraging more people back to work where social distancing can be observed...things that seem to be starting to happen anyway.

These threads make me laugh - none of you have a fucking clue yet what they are going to say on the 7th May, and you are just enjoying telling others that they are 'crazy, nuts, naive, laughable' whatever, for thinking something different to you! People are just pulling dates and numbers out of their arses and then posting them like they mean something.

I think that's a really promising study but it is one area and a very short period of time - I would like to see more of the same. I noted the bit at the end too
is notable that on 23 March 2020 the NSW Premier advised that although schools remained open, parents were encouraged to keep their children at home for online learning. After this date face-to-face attendance in schools decreased significantly and this may have impacted the results of this investigation. Furthermore, school holidays commenced in NSW on Friday 10 April for two weeks.

Where I’d Chris Whitty day there’s probably a link to the issue that’s been raised in kids.

Did he say ‘probably?’

I think another 3 weeks will be announced but with an outline of how they will gradually relax measures through June.

I have thought for a long time that schools would be back in June but I now think that before August (Scotland) is highly unlikely and that is probably for the best.

We don’t have a rich enough data set to make any concrete conclusions either way.

We have to interpret the data we have as best as we can, otherwise we just remain paralysed in indecision.

It is a very MN trait to believe that, unless something is 100% absolutely definitely certain, then we shouldn’t believe it.

Sadly in the field we need to be a lot more pragmatic.

Where I’d Chris Whitty day there’s probably a link to the issue that’s been raised in kids.

Did he say ‘probably?’

He said
entirely plausible

I'd like to think schools will return in June, but Raab said yesterday it would be with social distancing measures which might not be helpful to working parents.

Schools going back but social distancing in other areas would be completely pointless. You can't social distance in a school. We had under 10 teenagers in today and they needed constant reminders to stay apart, which they often had too late because they only get the reminder when they're breaking the rule when they get caught. A whole school or even just a year group would be impossible, the corridors get as crammed as tube stations, there aren't enough classrooms to even spread out one year group appropriately. They'll want to run around at break and it's impossible to supervise them 100% of the time and they won't stay seated in the same seat all day like little prisoners. I think they'll be off until September there would seriously be absolutely no point maintaining social distancing in the general public if schools went back. Yes the kids may not suffer that's not the point they are SPREADERS.

Not to mention the health secretary was ‘very worried’ about the new development.

To be fair, it's new and he was hardly going to say "nah don't worry about it."

I agree this potential link to children will no doubt play a part. I think they are going to have to explore that before they begin mixing children together in large numbers. Having said that before todays news I was thinking at least another 3 wk extension. I’m not sure the R is low enough

They still had reminders when they arrived and posters everywhere about distancing.

@CatEnabler No, that’s the point, they’re not ‘spreaders’. Adults are very unlikely to contract Covid 19 from a child.

I’m not sure there is a consensus as to why, but I expect it is because children are far more likely to remain asymptomatic following infection, and to date hasn’t been a single case of documented asymptomatic transmission.

Gradually lift after the 7th.

Schools back in by June.

I think lockdown will be extended. Everything the recent talks by the government in recent days is that we must not stop lockdown too soon and how important keeping going is right now. I’m sure it’s to prepare us for an extension.

Also the worrying news about children possibly being affected in a way we had not previously reassured and younger adults (generally parent aged generation) being prone to strokes caused by covid makes me think the schools reopening is still a long way off. Not only do schools need to be safe for children but they also have to be for parents to drop off and pick up. Even if schools do go back, surely it will only be part time for the children so class sizes are smaller and they attend fewer days or sessions.

@NikeDeLaSwoosh that's bollocks what's the point of social distancing then? Haven't you seen the adverts by the govt? Why don't they just social distance if you have symptoms then? Anyway I'm out of this silly debate. Bye.

"I’m expecting primary schools to reopen 11th May."

Not going to happen. Our government aren't taking advice from the scientists undertaking their tiny NSW study that isn't actually representative of the normal school environment.

They are taking their advice from SAGE and their published concerns don't agree with the outcomes of that study. They've made it pretty clear that it will be longer than that before we can even see the effects of long term school closures.

Praying they will start school back June1.